End Of Year Share Price Contest!

[Sirius Roadkill]

Lol, If you put a gun to my head saying i had to trade something today, I would have shorted AAPL - high volume break of the line, retest. It's a Raschke play.

Why Yes! Of Course! The Baron Von Raschke Play!

How could I have missed this . . . johnnyirishxm even mentioned the "iron claw formation" just a few days ago . . .

[Dr. Dave]

Why Yes! Of Course! The Baron Von Raschke Play!

How could I have missed this . . . johnnyirishxm even mentioned the "iron claw formation" just a few days ago . . .

LOL! That's so awesome!!!!!

I actually have a couple patterns I found that I named myself - one is the triple swoop, but there's only 2 swoops, and the Chinese downhill.

[socalrunningfool]

SCRF....

I think we would lose Lloyds of London as soon as they came upon Dr. Dave's Charts..They would just wonder off into the horizon looking baffled never to be seen again

vaporgold

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Wow. For a minute there I thought you could see me trying to figure them out.......................

[bassmaster]

I'm just talking short term catalysts. I'm bullish for the stock too - for the earnings report, that's why I bought the calls. Haven't picked up more. I'm just talking about between now and the contest end.

The way we break to the upside is a decent rally on the indexes (perhaps some news of increased xmas spending, or more dollar rally), same for the downside (mutual funds dumping for good reports for the end of the year). Then have some extra news for a particular stock agreeing with the direction of the market. That's the way a stock will move, in my opinion.

I posted this last nite, so if the indexes had tanked today, this would have been a good catalyst to bring the stock down for the short term (end of December).

Flat lines and trendlines - you just have to see what hits, and the candles that form. They will bounce on something... ie. AAPL hit your support line, but looks to have retested and reversed at the trendline.. for now. Typical and expected, but the other outcome was also continued downtrend after the break, which is why I got out. And also why I didn't get in was the possibility of the reversal at the trendline. Too much potential whipsaw or loss, you know what I mean.

Thus, yes, hold on SIRI until something happens... keyword was potential, if I didn't put it down, that's what I meant - then with a market move down, could have been bad. I will sell if shit hits the fan, buy later, but I won't try to predict a move just based on the news.

thanks dave for the insight. now this is my first year following the market. do mutual funds/traders start up again towards the end of december or does everyone wait till the new year?

[Dr. Dave]

They work year round, but in terms of reporting numbers, they report quarterly and their end of year results... ie.

AsFX Fund 2009 Results: +1570% vs. SP500 +20%
Spectacular Sponge Small Cap Fund 2009 year end results: +40%
2009 End of Year Results - Goldman Sachs Only Bailout Receiver Fund: +120%
2009 End of Year Results - Goldman Sachs Small banks we didn't buy and didn't receive funding Fund: +5%

They all have to calculate their value on the last day of the year. So they may adjust things accordingly. Thus far, the month has been pretty docile, so I'm not expecting a big change, but on December 1, I started looking for signs.

But, they could dump to ensure a good number if some of the others start to dump first. Flipside, if everyone is busy with holiday shopping, including the managers, it'll lay low. I just figure, there still hasn't been much of a dump off, since the rally, so a few scares could get the ball rolling. Then the crowd will follow, particularly, since everyone perceives that the market has rallyed too far compared to the state of unemployment, etc.

Anyway, usually for a turndown, you'd see the weaker stocks head down first (which would be something like SIRI and the like (plot SIRI, QQQQ, AAPL against each other a few years back, along with some random tickers)), then once the bigger ones start to crack, then you get a downtrend. I'm watching AAPL and JPM and such, as if they start to go first, then the probability that the small guys follow really gets increased.

So, not saying it's gonna happen, you just watch, trade accordingly. And bear in mind, you don't get every trade right, so don't fret over it, just cover your butt. Or, if you have a lot of cash, and invest a small portion of your account, then I suppose you can do the average down game, just can't run out of cash, or let the world end in the process.

Again, I'm no master trader by any means, but that's what I see or at least think.

[Dr. Dave]

Nasdaq futures riding the line... (I'd rather see them break north than south!)

[Sirius Roadkill]

names redacted for privacy . . .

September 27, 6:38 P.M.:

Sh*r**: miss you
joh**y: now that's hot so who is your new broker SRK
Sh*r**: no new broker...still running dry powder...been in on 2 real trades in the past 2 months
joh**y: I need you
Sh*r**: then get your tight wallet over here and visit me! I need u
joh**y: I will wear you out soon
Sh*r**: how soon? I got a new screenshot
joh**y: really. Where
Sh*r**: I just sent u a pic of it...it is on my chart thread below my avatar...implanted a little CINN
joh**y: send it again. I didn't pick up on that
joh**y: you must need some IBD from me
joh**y (at 8:45 p.m.): do you have a broker
Sh*r**: I don't even have someone I am dating...no...u can be my broker
joh**y: then I am
Sh*r**: I wish
joh**y: quiet and secretively we will always be invested
joh**y: when was the last time you got paid
Sh*r**: ha. king-of-kings doesn't pay anyone here

[bassmaster]

LOL! That's so awesome!!!!!

I actually have a couple patterns I found that I named myself - one is the triple swoop, but there's only 2 swoops, and the Chinese downhill.

next time you spot this pattern somewhere show me please..lol

SRK- hilarious

[SiriuslyLong]

Update On Contest

Buzz picks are on the left, koat guys on the right

julietoo .83 vs stang3O2 .75 KOAT ahead by .08

s50fan .77 vs Asm610 .83 Buzz ahead by .06

Havakasha .68 vs Great Gazoo .84 Buzz ahead by .18

Candleman .78 vs Sheree .79 Buzz ahead by .01

socalrunnningfool .721 vs rick .8897 Buzz ahead by .1676

bassmaster .735 vs. Michiganblue .8915 Buzz ahead by .1580

John .72 vs RichardKeane .795 Buzz ahead by .075

SiriusRoadKill .6349 vs JohnnyirishXM .86 Buzz ahead by .2251

Dr. Dave .535 vs Relmor .90 Buzz ahead by .19

Hopeful .8173 vs Captains Pick .72 KOAT ahead by .0973

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Thanks Socal. Nice job. I'm thinking the Buzz has a lead pipe lock on victory. KOAT is too optimistic - almost all them predict a higher close vs. their SB opponent. If I had played, I'd be there right with SRK - "stuck in a rut" and I agree 100%.

We are winning in match play 8 - 2, but we ought to count stroke play as well (cumulative difference of prediction vs. close). I think the Buzz wins there too.

[socalrunningfool]

What's Up All. Great posts on this thread. Let's keep it up and keep up the contest chatter going.

Buzz picks are on the left, koat guys on the right



julietoo .83 vs stang3O2 .75 KOAT ahead by .08

s50fan .77 vs Asm610 .83 Buzz ahead by .06

Havakasha .68 vs Great Gazoo .84 Buzz ahead by .16

Candleman .78 vs Sheree .79 Buzz ahead by .01

socalrunnningfool .721 vs rick .8897 Buzz ahead by .1676

bassmaster .735 vs. Michiganblue .8915 Buzz ahead by .1580

John .72 vs RichardKeane .795 Buzz ahead by .075

SiriusRoadKill .6349 vs JohnnyirishXM .86 Buzz ahead by .2251

Dr. Dave .535 vs Relmor .90 Buzz ahead by .215

Hopeful .8173 vs Captains Pick .72 KOAT ahead by .0973

It needs to be said here that the SiriusBuzz team is currently on top in "8" matches with the KingofAllTrade team ahead in "2". 8-2 Buzz.

With 13 trading days remaining, the KOAT team does indeed need a nice "rumor" or "upgrade" to get them closer. Dr. Dave has indeed closed in on SRK as being the "Top Spread Dog" in the contest.

Still hoping to put together a half way chat at KOAT need to confirm with Johnny for next weekend. Hope everyone is well and let's put the shoe down to the ground, and do some ground and pound.