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Thread: Market Watch for week of 11/02 - 11/08 2009

  1. #281
    bassmaster is offline
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    btw bill , i use dr dre headphones. this makes a big difference in the music listening. theyre pretty much top of the line. but not expensive, they cost me around 300 i think.

  2. #282
    billhart22 is offline
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    Now here is the exact same person...she is talented to the max!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP8SrlbpJ5A

  3. #283
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    Bass -

    After reading a couple of chapters of hellmuth's book, and using the trainer 2-3 times at partypoker, I played in a real game, well, with a bunch of drunks, some weren't drinking too much, but I doubled my stake, then they let my gf have my chips, since I she was wiped out, and she wanted to play more than me. She ended up with the most chips before they split the pot. it was NL hold em.

    Then just a while ago, I played online with my brother in law... we were ruling the table, then I had pocket 10's, and there were 2 aces on the board - some other guy went all in, so I did too, wiped myself out, lol. Fun though!

    Prior to the wipeout, I accidently raised (I didn't know there was a checkbox) instead of all-in, then did it a second time due to a computer lag - both hands I won. I think I would have had enough to meet the guy's all in and wouldn't have been shut out if I did those right.
    dave, there as soo many different ways to respond at certain spots in a poker game its tough to answer. but whenever you have to call an all in or push all in, you would like to be in the top of your hand range in that position vs the bottom range of your opponents hand.

    there are many factors in determining your hand range, one is you need to understand hand strength. im not sure if hellmuth discusses hand strength, but sklansky does.
    your hand range is determined by whether the position you are sitting in is +EV(equity value). the higher the EV the higher you are in the range. the lowest EV spot you would play would be the bottom of your range. each person has their own range. highly skilled players try to determine an opponents range so this can lead to a decisive course of action like value betting, bluffing,calling, raising,folding or blocking (although there are even more types of bets).

    to help determine an opponents range you need to pay attention to the hands they are showing, the position they are in , and the way they like to bet ( called a betting line).
    also important is knowing their frequency of playing pots. the more pots a player is involved in, the wider his range of hands.

    tight = low frequency
    loose= high frequency
    aggressive = aggressive betting pattern
    passive= just checks or calls
    weak= folds wider range of hands


    passive and weak players tend to not profit in the long run in any table dynamics.
    tight players profit when the table dynamics are aggressive.
    loose players have a wider variance. they win big or lose big.

    the best players have been the ones who can control a table's dynamics. you can consider them smart money.

    good players adjust to table dynamics. if the table is aggressive, a good player will play tight. if the table is tight, the good player will loosen (widen his hand rage) up. usually an optimal strategy is contrarian to the table dynamics.


    and most important rule of thumb is play in position. meaning, you want to be the last player behind the button. you want to be able to have the last action, whether you are heads up with someone or 3 or 4 handed in a pot. you want to be able to gather as much information postflop from your opponents before you decide to make a move. if the flop comes and you act before your opponents, you dont gain information , youre just giving information to your opponents and your chances for aquiring equity reduces a great deal.

    gl, hope you understand what i wrote.
    Last edited by bassmaster; 11-15-2009 at 03:21 AM.

  4. #284
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by billhart22 View Post
    Now here is the exact same person...she is talented to the max!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP8SrlbpJ5A

    ya she is good. from yonkers, i used to live there, never met her though.

  5. #285
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    dave, there as soo many different ways to respond at certain spots in a poker game its tough to answer. but whenever you have to call an all in or push all in, you would like to be in the top of your hand range in that position vs the bottom range of your opponents hand.

    there are many factors in determining your hand range, one is you need to understand hand strength. im not sure if hellmuth discusses hand strength, but sklansky does.
    your hand range is determined by whether the position you are sitting in is +EV(equity value). the higher the EV the higher you are in the range. the lowest EV spot you would play would be the bottom of your range. each person has their own range. highly skilled players try to determine an opponents range so this can lead to a decisive course of action like value betting, bluffing,calling, raising,folding or blocking (although there are even more types of bets).

    to help determine an opponents range you need to pay attention to the hands they are showing, the position they are in , and the way they like to bet ( called a betting line).
    also important is knowing their frequency of playing pots. the more pots a player is involved in, the wider his range of hands.

    tight = low frequency
    loose= high frequency
    aggressive = aggressive betting pattern
    passive= just checks or calls
    weak= folds wider range of hands


    passive and weak players tend to not profit in the long run in any table dynamics.
    tight players profit when the table dynamics are aggressive.
    loose players have a wider variance. they win big or lose big.

    the best players have been the ones who can control a table's dynamics. you can consider them smart money.

    good players adjust to table dynamics. if the table is aggressive, a good player will play tight. if the table is tight, the good player will loosen (widen his hand rage) up. usually an optimal strategy is contrarian to the table dynamics.


    and most important rule of thumb is play in position. meaning, you want to be the last player behind the button. you want to be able to have the last action, whether you are heads up with someone or 3 or 4 handed in a pot. you want to be able to gather as much information postflop from your opponents before you decide to make a move. if the flop comes and you act before your opponents, you dont gain information , youre just giving information to your opponents and your chances for aquiring equity reduces a great deal.

    gl, hope you understand what i wrote.
    LOL, I'm picking up on half of it... and at least online, seeing how the different guys play... ie. the second to the last hand I played a guy with less money went all in as soon as it was his turn, and his position was toward the beginning. I thought, I'd wait a round to see what the others do. I don't remember if he won. I think if you trade with the control you have in poker, you'll end up being in it for the long haul and make some coin.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  6. #286
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    In regards to BCLE and seeing what happened. I noticed a couple of weeks ago, the price plummeted on higher volume, where I stopped out. Then in the last 3 days, there was another drop in volume. I suppose its insiders to pick up shares - drive it down first, then pick up a bunch before the pr.



    But like I said, watch the action. Learning from previous - BEHL had a ton of PR's that sounded ok (caveat - but didn't appear to bring in actual dollars) - and the price dropped each time... which we now for sure means, that the stock is going down. So watch the candles on this one... if there is belief there, it should really climb and finish close to HOD.

    One of the guys I follow when playing the general market see's earnings seasons overall market direction by looking at which way prices go on close announcements - ie. slightly higher comparative EPS, beat analysts by a few pennies - but stock dives - means bearish season... ie. it's tougher if its great comparative earnings, blowout against the analysts, and a decent rise - can't tell the investor mood from that as well.... those stocks will rally regardless...

    He does though, even in those cases look to see if a reversal looms in the next day or too.

    Anyway, if the stock does the opposite of what it should, then be cautious.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  7. #287
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Another example, it was a good thing to see SIRI climb incrementally in price after having a lower EPS and yet again miss analysts expectations. That's bullish to me.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  8. #288
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    Another example, it was a good thing to see SIRI climb incrementally in price after having a lower EPS and yet again miss analysts expectations. That's bullish to me.
    i thought we beat expectations this Q?

  9. #289
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    My bad - I thought actual came in at -0.04?
    I see zero now. Where did I get -0.04.
    Anyway, still good to see shares up.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  10. #290
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Wow you guys, futures (nasdaq futures at new hights) and gold (new highs) are really pouring it on tonight - there was this intermediate term cyclical pattern in gold that was showing on the charts, and I think a lot of folks were starting to short, so of course, it went the other way, at least this evening. I've been waiting all day to see what was going to happen, as we were at the peak of the cycle for it to come down, and I held my gold plays.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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