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Thread: Market Watch for week of 10/26/2009

  1. #151
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    I finally downloaded an app to write on the screen - it's pretty cool, and it looks like you can script it too to add features... like one, I don't like holding down the trackpad button to write, so will have to figure that out... but now I can draw stuff like bases... there isn't a free hand drawing tool at stockcharts.



    Also, by starting with a clean chart - I marked that trendline... I actually don't like it when prices linger on a trendline... monday should be interesting to see if the line holds or doesn't. I'd rather see a clean bounce with a reversal candle. Appears we have yet another form of support here in this line, besides all the ones I mentioned, so if it gets taken out, I'm likely out. I'll give it 2 days I figure if the first drop down is small.

    You can type on screen with this app too - but it's more obnoxious to free hand it.

    Also - for Mr. Rams, I found a file renaming app - may be handy for your pictures. Apparently, it'll pretest before it does it. I'll try to find it if you're interested. But basically, you can go into a directory and from what I see change..

    DSCN001.tif
    DSCN002.tif
    DSCN003.tif

    to

    Mabel_Jones1.tif
    Mabel_Jones2.tif
    Mabel_Jones3.tif

    I think it's free too.
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 10-31-2009 at 05:42 AM.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  2. #152
    bassmaster is offline
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    dr. dAVE thanks for your T/A.. just amazing!!!!

    there are quite a few professional poker players who were traders. and 1 of my friends actually went from playing poker to being offered (and accepting) a 300k a year job working for a hedge fund. my friend played in a high stakes home game in manhattan with the owner of the hedge fund. the owner was impressed with my friend's analytic skills and gave him a job. sick!!!!!

    if you're interested in learning to play poker then i suggest you read DAVID SKLANSKY's book THEORY OF POKER. it is probably the best book ever written for the game. another great book is DAN HARRINGTON's- HARRINGTON ON HOLD EM.

    sklansky gives the mathematical approach to playing poker, i dont see you encountering any problems learning from him (most people cant decipher or understand the formulas he uses in understanding hand strength, etc.) please read this book and let me know what you think.

  3. #153
    bassmaster is offline
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    dave, i had assumed the pole would begin at the break out point. thanks for correcting me. it begins at the bottom of the flag channel. good to know. so that would lower my short term target to roughly the same as yours. and i do remember we discussed a longer term target of 1.08, hopefully this will be achieved not too long after the conference call. but like you said, and i agree with 100%, if the market tanks, we're headed back down too
    Last edited by bassmaster; 10-31-2009 at 03:22 PM.

  4. #154
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    i see the cup& handle formations the past 2 quarters and i am praying we complete it again this quarter. then i could dump my march $1calls (i have added alot this week @#.10) for $$$,$$$ , otherwise, longterm this stock is still trading in an uptrend and metrics/fundamentals just keep getting better. dave are you still holding long term, or are you trading?

  5. #155
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    dr. dAVE thanks for your T/A.. just amazing!!!!

    there are quite a few professional poker players who were traders. and 1 of my friends actually went from playing poker to being offered (and accepting) a 300k a year job working for a hedge fund. my friend played in a high stakes home game in manhattan with the owner of the hedge fund. the owner was impressed with my friend's analytic skills and gave him a job. sick!!!!!

    if you're interested in learning to play poker then i suggest you read DAVID SKLANSKY's book THEORY OF POKER. it is probably the best book ever written for the game. another great book is DAN HARRINGTON's- HARRINGTON ON HOLD EM.

    sklansky gives the mathematical approach to playing poker, i dont see you encountering any problems learning from him (most people cant decipher or understand the formulas he uses in understanding hand strength, etc.) please read this book and let me know what you think.
    I'll get those books - at least for the girlfriend... I'm having enough trouble keeping up with the stocks, not sure if I need to add in another addiction. I stayed up pretty late going against the training mode on that party poker game. I got my girlfriend pretty good, I pointed to one of the players on the screen and said, "I just can't figure out this guy's tell". She says, "he's a friggin' computer image that doesn't move you dork". Anyway, I can see why poker players like the stock market, and vice versa. That story about your friend is awesome. I like it cause I need to get out from underneath my boss, lol. But also, I thank you for sharing it, because I need to really focus on keeping myself from gambling on stocks, and following my gameplans. I did a really bad one the other day... I actually posted a play here on FSLR - buying a call and put. I had time to buy the call the other day, not the put, but could buy the put the following day. Had I done so, my loss would have been limited to say maybe $25-50, but let's say $100 max. The play cost $720. But for whatever reason, I went into gambling mode, picked only the call, as I was pretty sure earnings would be good. So paid $360, and expected $1000 in return. It went the other way. The put ended up going from $360 (they were the same price - the call and the put) to $1100. The call can only go to $5, but ended up going to $25. So we do the math....

    If I did what I said to do...
    $360 call + $360 put = $720.
    After earnings
    $25 call, so loss of -$335.
    $1100 put, so gain of +$740

    therefore
    -335 + 740 = $405 gain off of a max $100 risk... that's an actual, not calculated, 4:1 risk reward.

    What did I do.... just 1/2 of the play, only bought the call...
    -335 loss so, basically lost it all, for what would have been about a $740 gain if it went in my direction, so had a 2:1 risk reward.

    Better yet, was the warning signs.... the fool and a few other big news opps were bullish on solar. That was a warning flag and a half, and I knew it.

    I'm printing out the chart and hanging it up on a few walls, as a reminder to lower risk, I have a tendency to get risky when my account is up, or playing with a lot of "house" money, but house money is your money, and you have to protect it. It's important to always play like your account is down.

    Posting this loss is a good idea I figure, as when I post, it hammers in what I should and shouldn't do.

    At least I didn't do it big... so the money management part is ok. PCLN may be another stock to do this strategy, so when the time comes...
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 10-31-2009 at 04:21 PM.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  6. #156
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    dave, i had assumed the pole would begin at the break out point. thanks for correcting me. it begins at the bottom of the flag channel. good to know. so that would lower my short term target to roughly the same as yours. and i do remember we discussed a longer term target of 1.08, hopefully this will be achieved not too long after the conference call. but like you said, and i agree with 100%, if the market tanks, we're headed back down too
    Ok - when measuring a flag, some guys take the first pole up to the bottom of the flag, and put that on top of the breakout point, some take the entire pole and put that on top of the breakout point. I put the pole (which includes the whole flag) on the bottom of the flag pattern instead of on the breakout point... so basically - it represents, geometry wise, the first scenario - the same distance as taking the pole without the flag part, and placing the measure from the top of the flag. By doing it the way I did it, it was just quicker to draw... is that explanation clear?

    The first reason I didn't add in the distance of the flag into the measure, is that one day I drew out all the patterns I saw on SIRI starting from it's collapse... the flags work in both directions, and during the bear market, the moves didn't include the flag distance if I recall, I think I still have the chart or I can draw it out for you.

    The second reason is that, this actually isn't a flag, it's a channel.

    The distinguishing feature between flags+pennants, and channels+triangles, is time. Flags and pennants work off of quick run-ups, the consolidation that forms the pennants and flags is generally about 2 weeks or less - so about 10 candles or bars, give or take... in this case, the event is still fresh in everyone's minds and the next move corresponds with all the thinking that made the first move, ie. a little extra PR, or say, we ran up a little bit prior to a quarterly report, did a little consolidation, then the quarterly is coming out a within the week, and you get a little run.

    For channels and triangles.. the time is more drawn out... this pattern has been going on for about 2 1/2 months... so what's driving the price is different from what happened a few months ago. Channels usually move the width of the channel, so what I have in black... but... I've seen channel runs also that have are similar to what we have here... where the move is symmetrical from the prior consolidation. I think I can find one I already posted...



    In this case, goog actually blew out of the channel afterward, but you can see what I mean.

    Overall though, we have a bunch of things at hand with SIRI... we have that big trendline I drew (so there are players looking at just that - will it bounce or will it plunge), we have multiple forms of support at about 0.57/0.58 (so have different players watching each one of those... and they are at the same exact point of that trendline), we have a channel play again with the same pullback within the channel that usually is a bounce point prior to breakout... but also, after breaking down, will bring us down the channel - basically to that gap).

    Go long/go short... this is one of those pivot points. The average guy can't go short - most online brokerages have a price limit - say $5 to short, so then it's in the hands of pros.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  7. #157
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Treat this goog chart as if it were a flag and a channel, do the measure, you'll see you would have measured close to the $460 mark on the smaller run in both cases... I'll draw it out a little later.. when I draw out the measure, I look at some point of resistance on the upside, and assume the price will fall just short of that for profit taking...

    That's what we did for RTGV, and what Ramsey and I did to get the 0.62 sell on siri back in april. Doing the same thing we were set to cut out of SIRI again at 0.72 (thanks to the gap), but we held since our new shares were bought under that shareholder's rights deal in case of a sell out, so I held, and he's longer term. I'm not worried about the deal anymore, just want the money, lol.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  8. #158
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    i see the cup& handle formations the past 2 quarters and i am praying we complete it again this quarter. then i could dump my march $1calls (i have added alot this week @#.10) for $$$,$$$ , otherwise, longterm this stock is still trading in an uptrend and metrics/fundamentals just keep getting better. dave are you still holding long term, or are you trading?
    Ah, you posted when I posted. I was just saying I held on last time when it got up to 0.70. That was my target, but held on cause the shares I bought were pre-may 11, where you supposedly get $2 a share if there is a buyout.. but I remember when my mom's company got bought out.. the share price ran up to the buy out price anyway. Once the pattern's form, I'm looking for $1.08 for another upside target... depending on what the patterns are, I'd likely cut out, and rebuy later on the next consolidation. I like the stock, and so far, it's been good to me.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  9. #159
    bassmaster is offline
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    dave, thanks alot for all your posts. i really do appreciate it a great deal. and i learn so much from each one. now im just mad you posted that google chart because i wish i had money available for some itm puts. grrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!! jldkfbhvdfkjvnsdvnsdkjvndskjvkds!!!!!!!!!!

  10. #160
    billhart22 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Hey Bill

    No thanks to you, got my buy at .955 on ONCF!

    Now if QASP,BCLE,LFBG,SPNG will just cooperate and move north just long enough for all of us to put a bullett into them!

    Damn...how could I forget about MIGGLE...have had a standing sell order @.0003...not even a nibble!

    I hope all of you D-bags have a great W/E! Julie...you have a nice W/E as well!

    jeff
    Does D-bags stand for douche bags? (lol). Well, we can come clean out of any situation.

    Wait a minute....first I took the bullet for the gang and now I am a douche bag, that suckered and hypnotically suggested that you buy OCNF for .995? No prob..it will go up and so will BCLE. I told you to buy it in the .80's, but blame me for the .90's! That's o.k., I know where and what my position is..lol!

    I hope that you have a great weekend!

    B.

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