Sounds like your neck of the woods got hit hard with the weather. We have been experiencing the total opposite up here, warm temps and no snow.
Hi Guys -
Good to see you back Bass -
Been reading these books, and since a lot of great traders played poker, I logged into partypoker last night after reading a little on Hellmuth's book. I couldn't remember the good hands. My GF watches poker on TV, and she entered a tournament one time in Laughlin (she's never really played, other than a few times with friends) and I think she got 2nd or 3rd. She won a prize and was happy about it. She cringed watching me play poker online. I couldn't remember what the good hands were according to the book, so I bet when I was dealt good blackjack hands, ie. stayed in if I was dealt an 18 or above, lol. I kept telling her that the dealer has to stay on 17, and she kept rolling her eyes and hitting me. But I'm up a few dollars with that strategy... I know it's BS.
Regarding SIRI - I think I see what you are talking about... the channel that's been heading down on the daily chart. I can't scp my charts to get them up online today. But using different forms of measure, I have:
conservative - target is height of channel - by breakout time, about 0.75
using a "flag" approach - about 0.81 from the first consolidation point, and 0.88 from the second consolidation point.
But as you guys say, each day the targets lower... I kind of extrapolated these numbers.
The price resistance el supremo's are 0.70 and 1.08.
The 0.70 was broken once for 3 days I think, so it'll be easier to hit those targets. The previous high at about 0.78 could be resistance also.
Anyway, if we are heading up, it's never in a straight line, so I'm just considering anything between those numbers as zig zag time... between 0.70 and 0.88.
Now, the technical good thing is volume has been decreasing throughout the formation of the channel.
The support we have been seeing the last few days is a double-support line I have been yipping about over the last few weeks. I just drew a new fibonacci set on the last set of highs and lows in the channel. A lot of times, prior to a breakout from a channel or triangle, you will head up to the line, and folks will expect a breakout, but then you get a turnaround. It will often be a fibonacci retractment to the 38.2% part. That 38.2% is the double-support line! <-- we'll maybe not so exciting... but it's a good sign. I just find it odd they coincide...we'll that happens a lot though... anyway, that just adds more support for other players... the more folks playing these different things at the exact same price is good - it makes it stronger. But on the flipside, if it breaks... then it'll break harder and make resistance.
What I'm watching, and why I have been quiet is the general market. A while back I posted a bunch of numbers... things are turning around here.. but everytime things looked bleak there was a rally. That's the tricky thing... all the way up when the indexes would start turning around at key points, there would be a rally, most, including me would get bearish, but what you are supposed to do is buy on those points. Now that I feel like buying those points, it's likely that they will fail... that's how it goes. I did buy on the gold pullback... but held off on the ships at this point. I want to see confirmation.
Also, a lot of leading stocks seem to be doing what we call "blow off tops" - ie. AAPL, GOOG, etc. AAPL hit its previous high... penetrating it and moving a little higher is ultra bullish, but if it turns, it's not so hot. GOOG was in a massive channel, and blew out of it.
The bullish percent index on the nasdaq isn't too hot, crossed below 70, but that of the NYA is actually turning up and above 70. The NYMO hit a bottom, and is headed up... so a lot of mixed action - which is typical when you have these retractments. The thing is to wait and be ready for the direction.
Uh oh... gotta sell someting.. back in a minute
I made a fresh chart -
Is this the formation you guys are talking about?
I have a channel in blue. Different measuring techniques are in different colors:
1) black - most conservative - just a rise based on the channel
2) green - kind of a conservative, using last consolidation
3) dark blue - going back to the 0.35 mark.
Note the times that each started (cases 2, 3), expect about as much time to hit the target, unless it goes parabolic up.
The red lines are just resistance lines.
The purple fibonacci in there marked by arrows for start and end points, is what you use if there is a pullback before a breakout. can see the 38.2% mark is 0.57, which is our double support line - so now it's a triple support line.
Aggressive trading in anticipation of moving out of the channel would be buying around 0.57 (get a better stop that way, if you use them, next level would be just above 0.61, since this is above the 61.8. More conservative is after it breaks the blue upline.. but then have to adjust a stop.
Market tanks, and we could head to about 0.45, lol. Though, have to look at the other chart.
Here's my regular chart - I noted the channel in light blue. I know this one is noisy.. but it's my main one.
I actually reached the allowed limit of crap I can draw on it, so deleted previous comments... but nothing is really knew on it, other than the pullback into the channel, which is normal.
Lot of nervous nellies in the market today. I bought up on the gold stocks during this downturn. Gold shot up as soon as the market closed. However, stock futures haven't moved much, but perhaps will, as there was a job recovery report that just came out a minute ago.
Well, let's just say I hope Monday is the start of the run up because if the markets do indeed tank again, and SIRI follows suit, then we got some scared rabbits chasing the SIRI doggie this time. lol Your opinion on my .45-.46 gap opinion would be nice to hear. Thx.
Ok, a couple of things.
1) Not every technical event or observation is guaranteed. So, that means whatever you are looking at - say a breakout from a pattern, or following some moving average cross, or filling gaps for that matter, aren't all going to happen. Some give good probabilities, but you have to be ready for them to be wrong too - which is where money management, and stops come into play. So, one could calculate how often gaps get filled, but it isn't going to be 100%.
2) There are two kinds of gaps - those occuring when the prices are breaking out to new (where "new" is also kind of a relative term, unless you literally are at all time new highs or lows) highs or lows, these are considered to be more significant to a lot of traders. And there are internal gaps, where prices recently covered that area, and are considered less significant.
So - I marked where I would consider the new low gaps to be in red, the new high gaps in green, and internal gaps in blue, and the gap I think you are referring to in black. Here's a little more grey - SIRI is pretty volatile, and will be as long as it's in penny land, so the tails can get a little bit in the way, that said, some of the gaps I marked for the new highs have a little overlap. We'd have to zoom in on another time frame and look at the number of shares traded to see how strong the tails are...
But long story short - that's an internal gap - which many consider a little less significant - it could get filled, but maybe not. 11/12 gaps I marked are filled, so that's over 90%. I'm not saying it won't be filled, and in fact, if the price does retreat to the bottom of that channel, it likely will be. We just have to wait and see... breakout upward, or continue in the channel down (or worse case scenario - breakdown out of the channel). All possibilities exist. Looking at the charts and thinking about SIRI only, it looks bullish to me as long was we stay above that double-support line from here on out, and with the volatility - I mean don't close below the line.
This is where proper positioning comes into play - at least for technical trading and money management. Example, I'm weighted enough in SIRI as it is, I also have a gain on my current buy, and even though some of the shares were free, I don't want to give them up. So, if the support breaks with a close underneath, I'm ok with letting them go. No way would I hold and let my profit go and average down. I can buy again later.
If it rally's up, I could maybe add a little, but not a lot, I don't want to overweight myself in a single stock. So in that case, I'll only add if I see a breakout. Today would be a better entry if I had no position, but since I do, and I'm weighted about as much as I think I need to be, there's no point in taking the risk.
Ah - here's something... use your charting software and add 1/2 the indicators... they usually won't all give the same signal. In fact, you change the time frames, and you can use the same indicator and get different overbought/oversold conditions.
So, I guess I'm trying to say, yeah, there's a gap there, but worry more attention to the price of the stock first, where the sector and market are headed, along with where your buy is.
All the rest of the stuff - indicators, gaps, patterns, etc. are secondary and not all 100% guaranteed, lol. Great question though. I got burned on trying to time filling a gap a while back on PCLN, took bass along for the ride too.
Last edited by Dr. Dave; 10-30-2009 at 11:58 PM.
Hey thx for replying there Dr Dave, and going into so much detail with the chart. Much appreciated. Yes, I was speaking about the dreaded gap on 8/3. I actually wondered that if the sell off a couple weeks ago when SIRI hit the .51 range was gonna be the trigger to get this .45 gap finally filled and move up from there, but sure enough, the stock rallied from that point on and it didn't go into the .40s.
SIRI has always filled it's gaps of .01 or more below it's current trading price ever since I've been following it 6 years ago. All gaps below except that damn .45 gap. LOL It's strange to see, and I know all stocks don't do this, but this one has. In short, here is most of my post from back in August, in replying to a gap relmor2003 asked about, and as to why I've always been leery of SIRI filling it's gaps...
No thanks to you, got my buy at .955 on ONCF!
Now if QASP,BCLE,LFBG,SPNG will just cooperate and move north just long enough for all of us to put a bullett into them!
Damn...how could I forget about MIGGLE...have had a standing sell order @.0003...not even a nibble!
I hope all of you D-bags have a great W/E! Julie...you have a nice W/E as well!
Anyway, the stops depend on where you want to take your money if that's the angle you want to play. Right now, the market hasn't turned to the downside yet. The US dollar is still in its channel. Gold was following stocks, but rallied hard after the close, showing that even with its big turndown, with GLD hitting almost filling a gap. There was a lot of whipsaw for leverged traders - futures and such, so we need to sit tight, see which way it goes, and like previously, I can also see a whipsaw below the index support lines, like previous to march in the big descending triangle. We could get a rally now to make sort of a head and shoulders. If we get that, I'd bet there would still be an extra rally, as that happened previously also, since that pattern is so well known.
I think right now for me, a close near 0.55 is good enough. I can always buy again, I'd like to see the volume though, and close it EOD. A lot of gold stocks looked doomed today, but in the last 30 mins had recovered. I like stopping out on closes more than setting one up for a tail.