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Thread: Market Watch for week of 10/26/2009

  1. #121
    bassmaster is offline
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    sure stang. just bear with me, i have no external server to upload charts and have them posted here (the charts i can post come out tiny) so if you can pull up a weekly and daily chart and read along i will explain how i get to my target price.

    i started with the week of july 17 as the bottom of the pennant pole and the week of aug 21 as the top. that gives me roughly a $.38 length.

    from aug 21 through last week we have a bullish pennant formation completing. so my breakout point is around $.57 , obviously we need confirmation so a close above that this week is a bullish sign.. add the pole length to the breakout point gives me .95.... once again this is off the weekly chart.


    the daily chart shows more of a bullish flag formation using the same time period. but we are not in the breakout point yet in the "flag", if we were to close today at .63 or .64 then i would be comfortable in saying we have a breakout on the daily chart. the flag is slightly descending so each day the breakout point gets lowered. the pole is the same , so a breakout point of about .62 on monday plus the pole of .38 gives me a $1 target on the daily chart. basically a .05 difference between the daily chart pattern and the weekly chart pattern.

    thats how i came up with my numbers. and i wanted to compare notes with DR DAVE because we all know his T/A is 2nd to none. i am still learning.

    please stang, give me your opinion on my t/a and whether you agree with it or not.i appreciate the feedback.

  2. #122
    bigsandy is offline
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    Hey Bass! Welcome back. If you're up for some TA I'd like your opinion on EXPH, QASP (picked the Qaspers pocket this week for a few hundred..wouldn't mind jumping in again if you see a close over 2 in the next week or so) and GSAE.

    I'm hanging and hoping with you and others on BCLE

    Thanks in advance and have a great evening.

  3. #123
    dread is offline
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    Wow!! what a day!!

    MESA got hammered in extended trading tonight,

    PHOENIX, Oct. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MESA AIR GROUP, INC. (Nasdaq: MESA)
    today announced that United Airlines has exercised its early termination
    rights for Mesa's operation of 10 Dash-8 turboprop aircraft under Mesa's
    code-share agreement with United Airlines. Mesa plans to work with United
    Airlines on an orderly transition plan, but, in any event, the date of exit
    from service is expected to be no later than April 30, 2010.

    (Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19990210/LAW065)

    See the Company's disclosure in its Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended
    June 30, 2009 for a complete discussion of the Company's agreement with
    United.

    "We face a challenging period during the next few quarters and will strive to
    mitigate the impact of the termination of aircraft under our code-share
    agreement with United Airlines. The lease terms covering four of these
    aircraft expire on April 30, 2010, the remaining six aircraft have lease terms
    beyond April 30, 2010. We are exploring a number of opportunities for the
    remaining six aircraft including other codeshare opportunities, our
    independent operations or subleasing the aircraft to other operators," said
    Mesa Chairman and CEO, Jonathan Ornstein.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/press...09+PRN20091029

    Glad OCNF marched north today for everyone that holds the stock.

    GDP:

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 2.3 percent to 1,066.11 at 4:05 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 199.89 points, or 2.1 percent, to 9,962.58. Both gauges jumped the most since July 23. The MSCI AC World Index, a measure of developed and emerging markets, rose 1.6 percent after seven straight losses.

    ‘Not Over Yet’

    The growth in GDP topped the median estimate of 3.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists and eased concern that a seven-month rally in equities outpaced the prospects for recovery. U.S. stocks extended a global slump yesterday as an unexpected decline in new-home sales exacerbated those concerns. The S&P 500 has surged 58 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, yet slipped 2.9 percent from this year’s high on Oct. 19.

    The VIX, the benchmark for U.S. stock options that is known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” tumbled 11 percent to 24.76 in its steepest slide since February amid reduced demand for protection against declines in equities.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ax1LLGc4FeVE

    Volume DOW :
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...d-intraday.PNG

    Financial Sector:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...l-Sector-2.gif

    And GDP growth chart:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...3-2009-GDP.gif

    GDP breakdown of data for those interested:
    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

    Well thats enough crap for now, still sitting back and waiting for an opportunity that makes sense to me. I am going to see how much farther MESA will go down tomorrow. I don't really trust EH trading but volume looked convincing enough.

    Yeah, hey Bill!! If you want to destroy a QB, send them to Chicago!! If you want to save a QB, send them anywhere but Chicago!!!

    Have a good one people!!!

  4. #124
    bassmaster is offline
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    thanks bigsandy. good to be back..

    EXPH - i havent checked fundamentals. i seen on the shrub that the share count is almost a billion and just about maxed out. so unless they increase the A/S there should be no more dillution.
    right now, im looking at the MA's im a buyer if it touches the 200MA. a break below and i immediately sell. im also a buyer if it breaks above the 50MA and holds. it looks like there was a failed breakout attempt on monday, so thats why i would be very weary of buying right now. i would buy on confirmation candles and look for roughly a .02 profit max.

  5. #125
    just sirius is offline
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    Bill

    Missed on OCNF @ .90ish...Woke up late and hauled my fat ass out the door before placing my order...Oh well...will try and get some in mid-upper .90's tomorrow...order already placed!

    SiriusXm appears to be locked and loaded for 3rd CC on Nov 5th. Should see a nice jump into and again shortly after CC if the numbers being tossed around are close. If they beat the street estimates...I think we see a strong rally following CC.

    Anyone...any thoughts!!!!!
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  6. #126
    bassmaster is offline
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    QASP- i was always worried about that deathcross i spotted a while back, wish i unloaded all my shares when it ran to the .030's right before i left for europe.
    at this point i wouldnt buy any more shares. i would wait for the triangle to complete and look for a confirmed breakout. any move to .025 - .03 in the immediate future and i sell it all. i am holding atm and not adding. eventually the triangle will complete and there will have to be a break to either side. i learned my lesson from dr dave, always better to buy on the confirmation as opposed to getting in "too early".

  7. #127
    stang3O2 is offline
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    Thanks for sharing Bass I was looking at the same thing you were, also I was trying to chart the past 3 CC run ups. They give us an average of about 33% up from the starting point, with that being said i cant apply it until i see a start of a move up which i am guessing will be Monday or so. So if were at $.60 that would move us $.80 which is a little lower than I was hoping for but when its that close to $1 anything can happen, it will be fun to watch that is for sure...


  8. #128
    bassmaster is offline
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    GSAE - it was over a dollar recently, im very weary of speculating on it because i personally feel if its in this price range it shouldnt be on the pink sheets. but for a big play and a more profitable one i would wait for a golden cross. buy in as soon as the 50 crosses above the 200.

  9. #129
    bigsandy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    thanks bigsandy. good to be back..

    EXPH - i havent checked fundamentals. i seen on the shrub that the share count is almost a billion and just about maxed out. so unless they increase the A/S there should be no more dillution.
    right now, im looking at the MA's im a buyer if it touches the 200MA. a break below and i immediately sell. im also a buyer if it breaks above the 50MA and holds. it looks like there was a failed breakout attempt on monday, so thats why i would be very weary of buying right now. i would buy on confirmation candles and look for roughly a .02 profit max.
    Thanks Bass. I respect your opinion. I have been wanting to get back in (they are a NC based company--about an hour from me). They have a good relationship with Lowe's formerly based in the same town. They certainly qualify as a 'real company with real products' which is getting rarer and rarer in stinky pinky land..lol.

    Anyway, I'll be watching closely. I've jumped in and out of this one a couple of time for a few hundred bucks each time. I was picking pockets before it had a name..lol.

    Good nite and have a great weekend.

  10. #130
    bassmaster is offline
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    stang thanx for the reply. yes i agree with you, i think nov 5 we should be around .80. my call for the .90's is counting on a post CC run up like we had last Q after a few days of consolidation. if i measure a pole formation from post Q2 CC, i come up with roughly an .82 or .83 target for the Q3 CC , pretty much same as your target.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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