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Thread: Price Target Pre-Post Merger

  1. #1
    Keysmark is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 180

    Price Target Pre-Post Merger

    Hi Tyler et al,

    I am a Sirius stock holder and long time forum reader, but 1st time poster.

    Most informed anaysts, including our own Tyler Savery, predict a price of about $4.50 for SIRI if the merger is approved.

    However, I have not found any reference to to a price prediction for Siri which takes into account the substantial dilution which will occur after the merger is consummated, due to the issuing of approximately 1.4 Billion shares to XMSR shareholders (314 million shares x 4.5).

    My question, therefore, is twofold.

    1) Is $4.50 the target AFTER the effects of dilution?

    2) If not, can someone provide a target which accounts for the dilution.

    Thanks,

    Keysmark

  2. #2
    TheHoff is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 1

    Basic Knowledge

    The market will always price in public information. The market has priced in the dilution, and simulatneously what we get in return for the dilultion (xm+ synergies). No one will ever give a price target where the effects of public info are taken out. Think about this.
    Last edited by TheHoff; 12-03-2007 at 08:34 PM.

  3. #3
    jvvilly is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 14
    that was sort of... confusing... but anywho, i found an article at Forbes that might help. so many people are looking forward to the merger. with heavyweights like sirius and xm, it's almost a sureshot bullish trend. you can see several spinning tops in the monthly - that just shows the wait for the merger. IF there was no merger, i wouldn't be surprised to see 4.2 at the end of the year. IF there is a merger, 4.5 is gonna be broken the first few minutes the news is released.

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