Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 8-31-2009

[Sirius Roadkill]

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...80&tof=3&frt=2

I like it . . Mohammed won't come to the mountain . . so Socal copied & pasted him here . .

pushing through $1.00 will be a very turbulent ride I fear . . need 10 straight trading days . . the Ivy League pickpockets at Goldman Sachs already have something up their sleeve I'm sure . . will they catch Mel with his pants down around his ankles again? Lets hope not . .

And lest anyone forget . . Liberty Media can short-hedge their preferreds anytime after 1/1/10 . . how are we factoring that into the mix?

[Sirius Roadkill]

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF SIRIUS XM RADIO
(Standard & Poor's)
With recent signs of some auto OEM stabilization likely further outweighed by continued anemic retail trends, we see about 18.2M and 18.0M subscribers by '09 and '10 end, respectively (vs. '08's 19.0M), considering cash-for-clunkers and iPhone app. SIRI seems to have weathered near-term financing hurdles, though probably not fully dissipated. Factoring $750M of new senior notes (partly on refi), we narrowed '09 loss per share est by $0.08 to $0.08, see $0.01 EPS for '10 (vs. $0.06 loss), and we raise our EV/Sales target price by $0.50 to $1, noting $7B of net operating losses.

I like Tuna Amobi . . but how does he get his model to produce a doubler when the inputs haven't increased two-fold; Answer: $0.50 was too conservative and he knew it . . but note how these guys work in broad, round, numbers . . mostly $0.25 increments . . which leads to consistent undershoot or overshoot

Unless your Mark Wienkes . . then you march out on Llyod Blankfein's orders and cut everything by half . . nice and clean . . accelerates the take-down that way . . no pissin around a quarter at a time . .

eh, at least they mention the NOL carry-forwards which is more than most others bother to do

What time frame are they linking that dollar target to?

[Sirius Roadkill]

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...80&tof=3&frt=2

btw socal . . . since it's just u & me . . big 5k next monday . . put in a bullet work this week . . breezed 3M in 20:10 . . this will be my 2nd back off the shelf (just freshened-up) and am going long-to-short (5m to 5k) and first time lasix . . if it rains . . I'll throw on a pair of mud caulks

baffert says S.A. rubber surface is like running in "taffy" when it heats up . . M.P. we have fast dirt

[SiriMonkey]

btw socal . . . since it's just u & me . . big 5k next monday . . put in a bullet work this week . . breezed 3M in 20:10 . . this will be my 2nd back off the shelf (just freshened-up) and am going long-to-short (5m to 5k) and first time lasix . . if it rains . . I'll throw on a pair of mud caulks

baffert says S.A. rubber surface is like running in "taffy" when it heats up . . M.P. we have fast dirt

In English please. There's more than you two here. Quit talking in
secret code.

Julie

[MichGoBlue]

In English please. There's more than you two here. Quit talking in
secret code.

Julie

Stand on your head look in a mirror and read backwards, use every other letter. I think this says $1 by Christmas!

Note: 4 days, 16 hours, 10 min, 30 sec until Kick off!

[SiriMonkey]

Stand on your head look in a mirror and read backwards, use every other letter. I think this says $1 by Christmas!

Note: 4 days, 16 hours, 10 min, 30 sec until Kick off!

MGB,

Kick off what?

Julie

[MichGoBlue]

MGB,

Kick off what?

Julie

Meeeeeeechigan Football!!!!

[SiriMonkey]

Meeeeeeechigan Football!!!!

Why, do you like that kinda stuff?

Julie

[billhart22]

Stand on your head look in a mirror and read backwards, use every other letter. I think this says $1 by Christmas!

Note: 4 days, 16 hours, 10 min, 30 sec until Kick off!

Damn, why not just send out secret Ovaltine decoder rings to everyone? Ah, I get it! Christmas and Ralphie....don't shoot your eye out!

[sxminvestor]

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF SIRIUS XM RADIO
(Standard & Poor's)
With recent signs of some auto OEM stabilization likely further outweighed by continued anemic retail trends, we see about 18.2M and 18.0M subscribers by '09 and '10 end, respectively (vs. '08's 19.0M), considering cash-for-clunkers and iPhone app. SIRI seems to have weathered near-term financing hurdles, though probably not fully dissipated. Factoring $750M of new senior notes (partly on refi), we narrowed '09 loss per share est by $0.08 to $0.08, see $0.01 EPS for '10 (vs. $0.06 loss), and we raise our EV/Sales target price by $0.50 to $1, noting $7B of net operating losses.

Socal,

Where did you get this and when was it written ?

Just to comment on the sub#'s stated - I see growth from 3rd Q this year and on, so I don't see how they end '09 at 18.2 and then lose another 200k in '10. This is just wrong and these estimates will get blown out of the water.