Hi Jason,Originally Posted by Jason_Lucas_ADP
You're right, there are still buying opportunities to be had. The chance to double your money quickly days are gone now. But.... the chance to buy at .75 and hold on for 20, 30, or even 40% profit is still here and worth taking. Good luck to you!
.76 nees to fall soon, or there is about to be a voluem spike any 15 minute candle now. Im not sure its gonig to be a postive one. Longer we dont challenge .77, the greater the chance we test .73. Remember this is an up move, time is on the down trends side, not the up trend. Uptrend must continue to show its strength, or sentiment can be reversed. Remember when it was hitting of .38, .38, .37, .39. Same thing. Time was on the up side then.
Thanks for pointing that out. I'm glad someone else is keeping track of candles around here
We seem to be holding in the .75 range right now.
I've put in a buy for .72, we'll see how that goes!
up, up, up, and buy, buy, buy.
recent analysis by doctorex pointed to the possibility that the mature value of SIRI stock can approach $90 per share. several of the students hoped for further explication of certain points. let us again review the doctorex $90 model and discuss.
1. 100,000,000 subs. this is plausible given that there are about 250,000,000 target vehicles in the u.s.a., and only a small fraction have SIRI installed at this time. the takeup rate for new car buyers is 44%, which would calculate to about 100,000,000 subs at maturity. it is true that the cheapest cars will get SIRI later than the high end cars, and this might decrease the mature takeup rate.
also, canada, mexico, and overseas have not been considered.
also, consider the primary reason that siri exists: to avoid advertising when trapped in the car. there is no loss of this incentive to subscribe to SIRI, that's for sure, because regular radio is getting worse every day. also, the ad-based SIRI competition, like internet radio, do not address the problem SIRI is set up to solve, and will not hurt us.
2. arpu $15. one student wondered why this would be higher than the current arpu of about $10. the reason is, we are talking about the future, and there is plenty of flexibility for management to raise arpu moderately in an uncompetitive environment.
3. monthly revenue $150,000,000 implied.
4. annual revenue $18 billion implied.
5. expenses similar to current levels. this is about $700,000,000 per quarter, or about $3 billion annually. there is no reason why expenses have to go up because (1) expenses are going DOWN in the current uncompetitive environment, and (2) SIRI is by it's nature a fixed-cost business. the satellites are up there already, and the cost of new subscriptions is basically to throw a switch and turn on the receiver.
6. implies profit of $15 billion annual.
7. apply p/e; 30 is reasonable for such a healthy business.
8. implies enterprise value of $450 billion.
9. divide by 5 billion shares post-liberty. this is conservative because the liberty shares have already diluted the existing shares; one would expect a non-significant stock price drop when they are exercised, because it only represents the substitution of new common for existing preferred. however, to satisfy the students, the model now assumes 5 billion common shares as doctorex has stated.
10. voila, divide it out: $90 per SIRI share!
11. doctorex has not even stated the strongest factor in SIRI's favor. like "voldemort" the word cannot be spoken. but here's a clue. it begins with the letter "m".
BUY, BUY, BUY.
DOCTOREX HAS SPOKEN.
That's more like Doctor Who?
Nice entertaining thought process you've got going on there....except. It sounds like you don't understand business very well. You fail to consider that if there were really that many potential customers. Some other bright investors will start to compete with Sirius and thus drive the subscription price down and the profit margins even lower.
Competing in Mexico, Canada or wherever is going to be very tough. And we don't have a monopoly that will last.
If satelite radio is such a hot product, it won't be long until we have 4 or 5 competetors, just like regular radio, tv, newspapers, etc.
So, 90 seems pretty far fetched to me. I'd be a very rich man if we just hit 3 bucks......yep, that's what'll make me never go to work again.
Good afternoon all,answering the Doc's EV question,as a bussinessman,my personal EV for a company is 3x Rev,which is currently at 2.4 bill,so this gives you 7.2bil EV,which equates to roughly 1.90 to $2 SP or price of the company,add on a premium of 20% if offered to buy to get shareholders to sell and it's $2.08 to $2.20 SP...Right now this is our upside for this year,conservatively...When spec comes into play with future guidance it will go up..
This of course is relevant to profitability..
P.S.remember this is a buyout offer,not value of assets in company,sats etc..
Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 08-24-2009 at 12:11 PM.
nope.
"the liberty shares have already diluted the existing shares"
this is precisely why you must use the expected "FULLY DILUTED FLOAT" before calculating the correct earnings per share (EPS) . . if the "street" is already anticipating/valuing the equity based on 8,000,000,000 shares (as it correctly should), why would someone then discount that by 37.5% before calculating EPS?
now go sit down in the back of the room . . .
as to the other assumptions . . . john will take it from here . . .
P.S. It is true that the SP should not drop upon the conversion precisely due to the fact that an 8bn share float is already baked into the matrix . .
Correct valuation today . . based on known metrics and reasonable multiple is $0.71-$0.75. That's it. That is forward-looking 6 months because that is all the EBITDA guidance that has been given.
Absent any major news flow or "speculative buying" that is where the price should sit until Q3 CC . . it will then take further upward guidance to move the needle . . and I do believe that mgmt will guide-up once again at Q3CC which, coupled with seasonal factors, could push the SP above $1.00 during the last week of November/first week of December . . imo . . . dyodd.
Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 08-24-2009 at 12:26 PM.
what am I missing with the article on the main page?
who is scott spiegel?
I don't remember ever reading any other posts or blogs by him?
little help roc?
First of all if you were a teacher of mine, I would burn the school down and start from scrath.
As for 1.) As said before and to get it through your dumb thick skull, I will say it again. SIRIXM as I have been saying for the longest time (and now SIRIXM is started to say) WILL NEVER BE AT A FULL PENETRATION. As a matter of fact you can start to look for a reduction of the penetration rate in the future. Mel basically said it himself when he said that they went to far to fast into the lower priced models and that it was not being cost effective to go into those lower cost models.
As for Canada, Mexico and anything else, It may have slipped your feeble mind but Canada is already a seperate company that SIRIXM owns a portion of, that while they will get a portion of that businesses revenue (to include payment for the content and satellite support) That it has taken 3 years for them to get up to a combined (If you put both SIRI and XMSR together) 1.1 million subscribers. Mexico anything else, will (if they ever get that far) will most likely be done on the same model as Canada.
As for 2.) You say we are talking about the future, well I would at least like to talk about my future investment in the company or least my kids or grandkids, something in the 21st century would be nice. Look you dipwad do you even know what the ARPU was when they first started about 8.5 years ago was. Go check it out,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,are you done yet? If so, you found out that it really as not changed (and had actually gone down from the high) and while that will change in the coming quarters it will not change that much when considering the 15 dollar price tag you are talking about. So even if we take the new price increases into effect, the total ARPU will at most go up to 11.5 to 12. That is a at most a total increase of 1.5 dollars in the last 8.5 years.
Your analyst of this is filled with contradictions. You want to inclulde everyone (the masses) yet you then forget there is only so much the masses will pay for radio. There is a reason it took SIRI 8 years to do its first increase.
As for 3. and 4.) They are just wrong. You have 3. as 150 million, should that not be 1.5 billion or 4. should be 1.8 billion according to what you have for 3. If this is how you calculate your numbers is it any wonder why you are confused.
As for 5., 6., 7., 8., 9., 10., 11.) They are based on a seriously flawed and weak foundation so they will not stand up to the facts and therefore are false.
doctorex, You need to go back to school, actually I would not go back to the same one that you went to before. You better change because the one you went to has not done its job.
Reply With Quote