End of the recession?

[imromo24]

the recession ended in March...

dang 400 hp, can't wait for my next f150. just traded a 2000 with 150k miles for a 2005 with 29k miles....

[JohnnyIrishXM]

The recession bottomed in March and been in slow recovery ever since.
up .28% since then and another 50% to get back to highs of S&P 1500 and dow 14000....So if your not in soon,you'll miss out on your lost portfolio if got out late,back to even or if got out early enough,you'll miss once every 15 year gains...IMHO most you'll see are 10 to 15% retraces,from now on,very risk tolerable for these gains...Remember 401K mon ey has to go into the market eventually and for first time last month mutual funds had a positive in flow of monies in 1 year or so..

[john]

imromo24, THE RECESSION ENDED IN MARCH?????????????????? WHAT, I am sorry but there has yet to be one positive quarter of GDP and until that happens the recession is not EVEN OFFICIALLY over. Not to mention alot of economist are now calling for a double dip recession, that is when we have a few quarters of positive GDP but then fall back into at least 2 consecutive negitive GDP quarters.




Also it is amazing to me that in 2004 thru 2006 when the economy had a growing GDP and unemployment at below 5% (considered full employment by the MSM when Clinton was president) that our economy was doing terrible. I said before to people, if you think this economy sucks then when a real recession hits you are going to be surprised at how bad things can get. The point being; WE ARE NOWHERE CLOSE TO BEING OUT OF THIS THING. That while things may get a LITTLE better they will not get alot better for a long time to come.

[SiriuslyLong]

The stock market bottomed out in March. That's a fact. John is right though; we need some positive growth. Technically, a recession is 3 quarters of negative growth; am I correct? If so, wouldn't we need three quarters of positive growth to signify the end? My point was that my plant is making something of substance for the first time is ~9 months - a good sign.

I do agree though that if people are seeing their 401k's growing, it will help sentiment.

[SiriuslyLong]

SL

The purchase of Toyotas, Hondas, and Hyundais is not all that bad...most of them are made here in the states. I know, alot of the parts are still imported. But at least they now are being made here by the American workforce! However, that doesn't help Michigan very much! I am planning on buying a new truck...It will either be a Ford F150 Crew Cab o r a Toyota Tundra. I like the Ford because they did not take a dime from the govt and they seem to be building a quality product! The Toyota is built right here in my backyard in San Antonio...with local labor and suppliers! Also, quality is the best around!! Still haven't decided!

I wouldn't call foreign companies making things here a silver lining. The bottom line is that wealth flows out of the USA. One thing I have learned through my travels is that most nations have a strong national identity. I've worked with a French company who sourced French plastics. Same with Korea (Hyundai) and Japan. Trust me on this, the Japanese car makers prefer Japanese tier ones and Japanese plastics suppliers. This is not arguable. The Japanese also prefer Japanese brands. Living here in Ann Arbor, we have a large Asian community. Stand on the corner of Wastenaw and Huron River Drive and simply count the number of Asians and what they drive. On the other hand, we American's are a true "melting pot". We buy anything.

[john]

The stock market bottomed out in March. That's a fact. John is right though; we need some positive growth. Technically, a recession is 3 quarters of negative growth; am I correct? If so, wouldn't we need three quarters of positive growth to signify the end? My point was that my plant is making something of substance for the first time is ~9 months - a good sign.

I do agree though that if people are seeing their 401k's growing, it will help sentiment.

I am almost positive that it is 2 quarters not 3.

[john]

I wouldn't call foreign companies making things here a silver lining. The bottom line is that wealth flows out of the USA. One thing I have learned through my travels is that most nations have a strong national identity. I've worked with a French company who sourced French plastics. Same with Korea (Hyundai) and Japan. Trust me on this, the Japanese car makers prefer Japanese tier ones and Japanese plastics suppliers. This is not arguable. The Japanese also prefer Japanese brands. Living here in Ann Arbor, we have a large Asian community. Stand on the corner of Wastenaw and Huron River Drive and simply count the number of Asians and what they drive. On the other hand, we American's are a true "melting pot". We buy anything.

I agree manufacturing is not where the profit is at. The company takes the profit back to the country they are from. China sells labor, if there was no body buying the toys then they are going to go broke before Matel does. Not to mention Matel is not stupid they just got their foot in the door on what 400 million possible children when they improve to the point where most of the country is still not living in the dark ages. Say what you will but when they can get at least half of their population into the 20th century (thats right I said the 20th not the 21st) then we can start to worry about them until that point they need us more then we need them. They know full well that for now without the US to buy the crap they are making for US companies they are toast.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Applaud all who started and posted to this thread,as it is very usefull and practical info on different viewpoints on where we stand in seperate parts of the country on the economy...

[john]

As an example; What the hell does Google produce?????????????? Thats right absolutely nothing. Does anyone have a clue about how much revenue they make????????? a shit load.



China at best copies and the more they get involved into the world economy the more they are forced to stop the infringement on everyone elses ideas, that has been going on. Just look at what has happened so far, It has been cut in half.

[stang3O2]

I am almost positive that it is 2 quarters not 3.

that is correct 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth