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Thread: End of the recession?

  1. #1
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560

    End of the recession?

    I work in the plastics industry. My company makes the plastic used in several industries. We are at the bottom of food chain.

    The first 5 months of the year were horrible. June was a good month for us, then July, which is usually the worst month of a year, was the best month of 2009. August should meet or exceed July sales.

    I was out on the production floor yesterday. All lines were running. Shipping was loading trucks at all docks. Orders keep coming. I don't know this to be fact, but I'd bet some folks are getting OT.

    From this perspective, I absolutely think we are well on our way out of this mess.

    Your thoughts?

  2. #2
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: The Oil Patch, Texas Posts: 922
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I work in the plastics industry. My company makes the plastic used in several industries. We are at the bottom of food chain.

    The first 5 months of the year were horrible. June was a good month for us, then July, which is usually the worst month of a year, was the best month of 2009. August should meet or exceed July sales.

    I was out on the production floor yesterday. All lines were running. Shipping was loading trucks at all docks. Orders keep coming. I don't know this to be fact, but I'd bet some folks are getting OT.

    From this perspective, I absolutely think we are well on our way out of this mess.

    Your thoughts?
    The recession just began here about 2 or 3 months ago. Even with oil rebounding to the $70's, oil companies are still laying off people. SLB just laid off people last month. I guess we are at the top of the food chain ?

  3. #3
    MichGoBlue is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Ann Arbor MI Posts: 59
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I work in the plastics industry. My company makes the plastic used in several industries. We are at the bottom of food chain.

    The first 5 months of the year were horrible. June was a good month for us, then July, which is usually the worst month of a year, was the best month of 2009. August should meet or exceed July sales.

    I was out on the production floor yesterday. All lines were running. Shipping was loading trucks at all docks. Orders keep coming. I don't know this to be fact, but I'd bet some folks are getting OT.

    From this perspective, I absolutely think we are well on our way out of this mess.

    Your thoughts?
    Hello fello Ann Arborite. I think things are pointing in the right direction. SL, interesting, I work in the auto industry and we use plastic to make door handles, underhood bottles, interior trim. Volumes are picking up, not huge, but going up a bit. A far cry from the bottom falling out 6-9 months ago. Remember about 3 years ago whe plastic prices went thru the roof?
    Last edited by MichGoBlue; 08-22-2009 at 12:31 AM. Reason: spell correction

  4. #4
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Living here in Michigan, surrounded by family and friends who work for
    the auto companies, things are improving. Major OT at Fords. In fact first
    time I ever recall hearing this. A shutdown last week. people were being asked to work all week, as well as Saturday AND Sunday. Unreal.
    And as I have also mentioned before, record sales at dealerships.

    Michigan people sure do stay up late, don't we.

    Julie

  5. #5
    proactiv is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2009 Location: Villa Rica, GA Posts: 136
    Good morning friends,
    Since 1995, I have been running an IT staffing company with one business partner. We supply companies with IT professionals on a contract, contract-2-hire, or perm hire basis.

    Business has been the worse we have seen it since 2001-2002. Most of our clisnts have reduced capital spending, suspended or put projects on hold, or have reduced staff. Our clients are medium to large-sized corporations, primarily in the state of Georgia, but also in New York and Virginia.

    Our company belongs to a National Association that hosts periodic Seminars, Conferences and Webinars that pertain to our industry. One of our key presenters is a phenomanal economist named Alan Beaulieu, whom I have relied on for the past ten years. His forecasting has been uncannily accurate. Based on what I have learned, I am not expecting any real economic improvement until second quarter of 2010. Becasue of the massive federal spending we are seeing, the depth of the recession will not be as severe as it might have been, but it's length will longer than it otherwise would have been, had market forces, instead of gevernment intervention, been allowed to run thier course.

    There are exceptions, certainly, in some market niches. But overall, unemployment continues to inch up, the federal deficit is almost too big to comprehend, and the other shoe is soon to drop on the housing industry (and commercial real estate).

    But we as a country will get through this, and I believe that right now we are at the bottom of my particular industry; that we will be there for another 6-9 months, and that business will begin slowly improving afterward.

    Intersting discussion. Thanks for starting it, SL..

  6. #6
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Joined: Jan 2009 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 3,560
    Thanks Proactiv. Though your comments temper my observation.

    My company is at least 50% auto. Based on my fellow Michiganders / Ann Arborites comments, this uptick we are seeing appears to be related to automotive. Here is one sad fact, of the vehicles being bought, about 60% are Toyota's, Honda's, Hyundai and the like. You'd think that we would learn our lesson with this recession???

    The absolute worst thing that could happen would be to lose this momentum.

    BTW Go Blue - plastic prices are on the move again. Polypropylene is worrysome on several levels. For one, there is a short supply due to increased economic activity. Secondly, the refineries aren't generating much propylene monomer.

  7. #7
    proactiv is offline
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    I'll tell you something else interesting.. Because I'm in the IT staffing business, I see hundreds of resumes a week. When we are trying to fill a position for one of our clients, we post the details of that position on certain Internet job boards to attract qualified candidates. Back in 1995, when we started the company, about 80% of the resumes we received were from Americans. Not so any longer. During the past couple years, fully 90%+ of the resumes I receive are from Indian candidates who are here on H1-B visas. And don't get me wrong. I appreciate the Indian talent, and we have hired and/or placed many of them. It's simply a matter of supply and demand, and demand for IT professionals has exceeded the supply of qualified Americans, especially over the last ten years. And so we - the United States I mean - have imported hundreds of thousands of foriegn IT workers, mainly from India.

    It makes me wonder why more young Americans are not going after degrees in computer technology. The pay is good. Upward mobility is good. You can move just about anywhere on the planet and get a job..

    More... many American companies are outsourcing their IT work to India, because of the less expensive labor rate (although there has been some tightening there in recent years). It makes my market niche tougher to compete in..

    Just thought you might find this stuff interesting..

  8. #8
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Location: San Antonio Posts: 2,884
    your area siriusowner all depends on high oil prices, so i hope ur area continue's to be having hard time, i know last year when gas was 4 dollars every1 was hiring out there. they need to get off the oil, perfect climate for growing pbr's thats what they should do out there, grow some algae!!

  9. #9
    just sirius is offline
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    SL

    The purchase of Toyotas, Hondas, and Hyundais is not all that bad...most of them are made here in the states. I know, alot of the parts are still imported. But at least they now are being made here by the American workforce! However, that doesn't help Michigan very much! I am planning on buying a new truck...It will either be a Ford F150 Crew Cab o r a Toyota Tundra. I like the Ford because they did not take a dime from the govt and they seem to be building a quality product! The Toyota is built right here in my backyard in San Antonio...with local labor and suppliers! Also, quality is the best around!! Still haven't decided!
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  10. #10
    stang3O2 is offline
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    My wife and I both work in the "advertising" business, anything from weekly walmart ads to GQ. Our business has been the slowest I've seen in the 6-7 years I've been in it. From what I have seen or should I say have not seen it is not over yet. Hopefully it will be over soon but I think we still have a ways to go.


    Just Sirius- the f-150 is an overall better truck, the toyota has more power and is quicker but the f150 has a higher towing capacity. if your not in a hurry to get one the f150 will be getting a new 5.0L 400hp motor in the 2011 models which will be available next year.

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