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Thread: Hybrid Car Market Forecast

  1. #1
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    Hybrid Car Market Forecast

    http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2...26/467322.html

    One person posts a right wing think tank analysis with an obvious point of view
    Another posts an independent automotive information resource estimate.
    Who should you listen to?

    Obviously Hybrid purchases have slowed down. We are in the worst
    recession since the Great Depression. Car sales have slowed from 16 million to 9 million. The future is bright for hybrids, hybrid plug-ins, clean diesel, and electric cars no matter what those opposed to alternative energy technologies say. Follow the money trail and look at how much money investors are putting into these industries. Imagine where we will be 10 years from now.

  2. #2
    just sirius is online now
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    Lloyd

    First, I am not against alternative energy vehicles...As far as I'm concerned...build'em...just don't cram them down our throats! For all those who are clamoring for more hybrids, electric vehicles...they are really not much greener than fossil fuel vehicles. The batteries in 5-10 years are going to be a huge mess to dispose of! Guess we can send them to China and let them dump them out in the fields just like they do with computers!!

    But Lloyd, you brought up another interesting point that I have been trying to make. Let the free markets dictate if and when alternative energy vehicles are produced. You stated and i quote

    "Follow the money trail and look at how much money investors are putting into these industries. Imagine where we will be 10 years from now." You better be careful...John might mistake you for a capitalist! Sounds alot like a free market system to me!

    All of these technologies are coming to market without alot of help from the govt. That's the way it should be!
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  3. #3
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Lloyd

    First, I am not against alternative energy vehicles...As far as I'm concerned...build'em...just don't cram them down our throats! For all those who are clamoring for more hybrids, electric vehicles...they are really not much greener than fossil fuel vehicles. The batteries in 5-10 years are going to be a huge mess to dispose of! Guess we can send them to China and let them dump them out in the fields just like they do with computers!!

    But Lloyd, you brought up another interesting point that I have been trying to make. Let the free markets dictate if and when alternative energy vehicles are produced. You stated and i quote

    "Follow the money trail and look at how much money investors are putting into these industries. Imagine where we will be 10 years from now." You better be careful...John might mistake you for a capitalist! Sounds alot like a free market system to me!

    All of these technologies are coming to market without alot of help from the govt. That's the way it should be!

    Oh, i know you are not against hybrids. As you know im talking about someone else. LOL. I am a capitalist sowhere did you get the idea i wasnt?
    Oh i get it your just confused enough to think that the subsidies and
    Govt help "we" support is Socialist while the subsidies and Govt help "you" support is Capitalist.
    But anyway i really dont understand this obsession with Govt cramming certain cars down your throat. As far as i can tell its a free country and you can buy any damn car you want. Now i happen to think cars should have gotten much better mileage over these last 10 years or so and i am grateful for the Govt pushing for higher mileage standards and supporting the new technologies like hybrids, hybrid plug-ins, etc. I notice that a certain segment of the society now clamoring about the Govt NEVER SAID NOTHING
    when the govt was supporting oil, gas, coal, and nuclear companies. So excuse me if some of the yelling rings mighty hollow.
    Maybe the batteries which will be good for 10 years or more and which are getting better and better all the time through new innovations will also be recycleable as well as the little batteries we use right now. You do recycle your AA, AAA, C, D batteries i hope.

    To say that hybrids are no greener than normal cars just aint true but you can believe what you want. i am done trying to convince some of you guys of some basic facts.
    Oh and by the way i love the free market system when it is TRULY free. For
    too many years its been stacked in favor of the well connected lobbyists and money people whose industries had the ability to screw things up for the rest of us. Thats why i think its ironic that the guy you mentioned is so unaware that the money is flowing quite naturally to alternative energy research and development, and as the research study i presented shows it
    should continue to grow.

  4. #4
    just sirius is online now
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    Lloyd,

    I know that the money is flowing into R&D for alternative energy vehicles, and most of it is coming from the private sector...the free market...it has always been the case...when price of oil goes up...SUV sales plummet! The people want SUV's...not roller skates...and yes, the govt is pushing hard to eliminate "gas guzzlers" threw cafe standards...so in affect...they are dictating what cars we buy! I absolutely have no problem with hybrids etc...I hope you just don't blindly believe that they are that much cleaner than fossil fuel vehicles...Until the battery problem is solved...and at this time...it is not...when they are disposed of...they are considered toxic waste, BTW motor oil can and is recycled! My question to you is...since Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM, Tesla, Nissan, and others are pushing to be the first and the best in alternative energy technology...why do we need govt intervention?

    BTW- don't believe what you read about the Chevy Volt...No way that they can get 230+ MPG Also, they state that it will cost about .40 cents a day to charge the volt...again, no way...they used .05 cents per KW/hr Probably 4-5 times that...actual cost will be, depending on your part of the country...
    .15-.20 per KW/hr so about 1.60-2.00 per day... still cheap though! My best guess...if it goes only 40 miles per charge at this time...equalivent of 50mpg when compared to vehicle getting 20mpg and gas at 2.50/gal.
    PURCHASED THE CABIN IN THE WOODS...THANKS MEL, MALONE, AND THE BLUE DOG

  5. #5
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by just sirius View Post
    Lloyd,

    I know that the money is flowing into R&D for alternative energy vehicles, and most of it is coming from the private sector...the free market...it has always been the case...when price of oil goes up...SUV sales plummet! The people want SUV's...not roller skates...and yes, the govt is pushing hard to eliminate "gas guzzlers" threw cafe standards...so in affect...they are dictating what cars we buy! I absolutely have no problem with hybrids etc...I hope you just don't blindly believe that they are that much cleaner than fossil fuel vehicles...Until the battery problem is solved...and at this time...it is not...when they are disposed of...they are considered toxic waste, BTW motor oil can and is recycled! My question to you is...since Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM, Tesla, Nissan, and others are pushing to be the first and the best in alternative energy technology...why do we need govt intervention?

    BTW- don't believe what you read about the Chevy Volt...No way that they can get 230+ MPG Also, they state that it will cost about .40 cents a day to charge the volt...again, no way...they used .05 cents per KW/hr Probably 4-5 times that...actual cost will be, depending on your part of the country...
    .15-.20 per KW/hr so about 1.60-2.00 per day... still cheap though! My best guess...if it goes only 40 miles per charge at this time...equalivent of 50mpg when compared to vehicle getting 20mpg and gas at 2.50/gal.
    As i have repeated many times the Govt HAS ALWAYS intervened in industry you just seem to refuse to acknowledge it. The nuclear industry fails without huge govt support. Its just way to expensive. And i could go on and on. In this case govt is intervening to bring us more energy efficient and cleaner cars. Just like they intervene to set standards on more energy efficient refrigerators, air conditioners etc. etc. etc. I dont here anyone get up in arms about that. Nor should they. its just good policy. American car companies had to be dragged kicking and screaming into increasing their mileage standards arguing all along the way that they couldnt possibly meet those standards. And you know what they ultimately did every time. They needed to have their feet held to the fire. We need a balance of govt and private industry. its always been that and it always been that. One alone without the other will lead to catastrophe as it did with unregulated derivatives (wall st.)

    I was always completely confident as far back as 10 years that the car industry would develop exactly as it has. The only problem was that it should have happened long ago. Sometimes we need Govt (which afterall is made up of people that the citizens elected and which is supposed to represent us) to help set policies in this country. Do you like Social Security and Medicare and the military health care system etc?i know it often doesnt unfortunately because big money of the private sector has undue influence)

    I have never been a big fan of the Volt by the way. It has to come way down in cost and its more of a publicity gimmick for GM than a money maker. Of course they are exaggerating the mileage. I am still glad they are making them however because its a path on the road to where we will ultimately get. We will have hybrids, hybrid in plug ins, electrics, clean diesels, and you or your children will be driving them very happily and never even thinking that the dastardly govt has forced us to do anything. You really need to chill a little bit on this subject. Leave the stubborness to that other guy.
    The new car industry will be a positive example of how govt and private industry can work together and produce good results. Take a look at the Spanish high speed rail system. Its an amazing example of private enterprise working with govt to produce an new industry from scratch for Spain in as little as 20 years.
    Take my word i am not blindly believing something. i have thought about and read about this subject for many years. I have produced neutral studies that demonstrate what i believe. You decide. Have a good day.

  6. #6
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    I was rushing to get out of the house so sorry for some of the grammatical
    and other kinds of mistakes in my last post. It was more of stream of consciousness.
    The battery discussion is a good one to have and i would love to get it into that soon. The 5 year figure is way outmoded so watch out when you listen to the other guy. Do your own research.
    I was just curious as to what happens to the batteries in gas run cars right now?
    What i do know is that hybrids, hybrid plug-ins, clean diesels and electrics all contribute to a much cleaner environment and help to lower dramatically our dependence on Middle East oil as well. Its a win/win for the U.S.

  7. #7
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    To reiterate for those who dont know. The Heritage foundation is a right wing think tank. Its a fact. Just check it out on Google.

    From the neutral study the following quote.
    "The trend is clearly visible from the fact that the hybrid car sales worldwide showed a positive growth compared to an overall decline in the global automobile sales in 2008"

    Fact. Hybrid car prices are going down as batteries get better (and more expensive). Look at the Honda Insight and look at the prices of the new Nissan electrics coming in the next few years.
    The car prices for hybrids and hybrid plug-ins will be coming down every year. The Tesla started with a 100,000 two seater and is going to a 50,000 four seater. The third generation will be even cheaper. Its kind of obvious that prices will come down as more hit the road.

    The guy who said batteries last 5-7 years NOW (after being proven wrong)
    admits they last longer. What does that tell you about his research that he has to be proven wrong before he gets the facts right?: D

  8. #8
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    Its obvious that Hybrid sales go up and down according to the cost of gasoline just like small cars versus SUV's.
    Duh! LOL.
    I quess you got to decide whether you think gas prices are on a upward trajectory or downward. I happen to think an upward.

    Since it has been argued by one particular individual on this site that gas prices go up in Democratic administrations then according to that particularly ridiculous theory Hybrid sales will be going up automatically.

    I will say that hybrid, hybrid plug-in, clean diesel, and electrics will grow greatly in the next ten years despite the fact that according to someone on this site "they are not economical" I quess all the millions who have bought them so far, all the people who are planning to buy them in the near future and ALL the car companies dont know what they are doing or talking about. What are the odds?

    One person argues that not until 2020 will hybrids be economical or technically workable. I have shown one reputable study that some of them are already economical. i quess we will have to let time prove who is right
    or maybe some more future neutral automobile studies.

    I notice that the person who argued that batteries lasted 5-7 years and now admits to them longer lasting battery is very shy about admitting that he was wrong and i was right. Surprise. surprise. LOL. Ciao.

  9. #9
    lloyd Handwerker is offline
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    This guy still cant admit he was wrong about the batteries lasting only 5-7 years.What else would one expect.

    As of RIGHT NOW Toyota says the batteries will last a 150,000 miles or a lifetime. So they are going to be trying to make them to last the iife of the car. That means you wont have to buy another one most likely.


    The newer batteries do cost more to make obviously, but that price is coming down quickly.
    The fact is their are relatively new hybrids which cost loss then their previous generation even with the newer batteries.

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