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Thread: Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

  1. #11
    billhart22 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    I just put 50 and 200 there, as for these slower big exchange stocks that's the default. I don't know how Tyler trades... if he's been in SIRI for a long time, he has patience, and likely is more speculative. 20 day moving averages are used a lot, or folks also use others like 30. Depends on how you are going to trade it. If I have time, I could backtest a series, but the way this guy kind of runs in a more narrow range, it may not show a clear trading system. Any questions always ok, and remember, I'm not a pro. The only thing I can say with any certainty is, is where the different forms of support and resistance are, as those have a definition, so to speak, so they are what they are. Then you run into the multitude of ways to trade things.
    I do the same thing a lot. I am trying to prove one point and then let the other stuff rip. Now I understand why. Thanks, you are a trooper!

  2. #12
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    i said a purchase at a close above 28 and another purchase above 30... i need to learn to refine my buy targets... if that was my purchase i may have done it at a resistance level and that is a no-no
    $28 with momentum, and close stops isn't bad, anticipating breaking $29, with the higher highs and lows behind it... it would be a good go also once it hits $30.66, where that gap in early 2008 (going off memory) and the 50% retractment is. Again with tight stops. But again, for a speculative play and the super long term patience and ability to take drawdowns, any day is a good day.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  3. #13
    billhart22 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    $28 with momentum, and close stops isn't bad, anticipating breaking $29, with the higher highs and lows behind it... it would be a good go also once it hits $30.66, where that gap in early 2008 (going off memory) and the 50% retractment is. Again with tight stops. But again, for a speculative play and the super long term patience and ability to take drawdowns, any day is a good day.
    Momentum is the factor. You called it well, because as Dave pointed out, the volume has been decreasing. Personally, I think I would sit on the sidelines for a few days and see where it compares to the sma30. Once it makes a move above the sma 30, I would wait for one more confirmation candle and ride it up, but still keeping a really close look to see if it is an official run and staying above sma30. I would use the timeline with Dave's chart to declare it a run or a sputter. A couple of days of positive on a long and a stock at this price would be prudent. After all, it is a real stock.

    These real stocks, lol, generally will take a rise and then fall back a bit and then climb. A person wants to catch them on the second rise. Yes, it costs more, but in the long run it will pay off. It will cost a hell of a lot less in the long run.

    Just some thoughts....agree or disagree with me...I am open.

  4. #14
    bassmaster is offline
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    ya i may have called it well, but not with conditions or the right explanation. its still a leak in my game.

  5. #15
    billhart22 is offline
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    Good night all...I have to work tomorrow for a while. A handyman only works 4 hours a day, maximum. I don't want to wear myself out..I just want to make money.

    I love the comment about 2 years ago by John Kasich (former Congressman) that, "What handyman isn't a convicted criminal?". With that said, I say, "Good Night"! It is time for lights out here in the big house, lol!

    Great luck tomorrow for all of us!

    Bill

  6. #16
    bassmaster is offline
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    gn bill...gl with your trades and have fun at work...i do!!!

  7. #17
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Could be an options play... PCLN has a tendency to close earnings gaps...
    see the 2007 chart



    We'll keep an eye on PCLN sept puts:

    symbol: PNEUG
    $135 strike
    current price $220

    They may be a go if price breaks the top blue line, but that's a little risky... maybe wait until the second blue line, but have to really be ready, or maybe choose the $130 strike...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=PCLN&m=2009-09



    I don't like the ATR though, you want that down... I think the price of the options are generally too expensive when it is trending up.

    I"m also looking at JPM.

    The general market may consolidate sideways, which makes these things much more risky to trade. The JPM ones are half the price though, so its not a biggie if we lose 50%.

    I may be too busy at work for a setup this week, we'll see. The way its been going tonight though, all I've done is look at charts.

    whoops, that last red arrow on the 2007 chart should be scooted over. I also noted in light blue how this stock will hold in the upper end for a while after earnings, then decline.

    Each stock is different, that I can tell you.
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 08-17-2009 at 01:52 AM.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  8. #18
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by billhart22 View Post
    Momentum is the factor. You called it well, because as Dave pointed out, the volume has been decreasing. Personally, I think I would sit on the sidelines for a few days and see where it compares to the sma30. Once it makes a move above the sma 30, I would wait for one more confirmation candle and ride it up, but still keeping a really close look to see if it is an official run and staying above sma30. I would use the timeline with Dave's chart to declare it a run or a sputter. A couple of days of positive on a long and a stock at this price would be prudent. After all, it is a real stock.

    These real stocks, lol, generally will take a rise and then fall back a bit and then climb. A person wants to catch them on the second rise. Yes, it costs more, but in the long run it will pay off. It will cost a hell of a lot less in the long run.

    Just some thoughts....agree or disagree with me...I am open.
    A climb above the $29 mark, and then a fall back to the line, and then back up is what Raschke would play... the second run, often the 2-3 move in an elliot wave. It's the safest of the TA plays... I think she's in the group that plays more to not lose money, rather than to make a quick buck. There's basically 4-5 pro's I've been trying to learn from or watch... each has their merits. Also, like Bill is saying, with using the moving averages, (make that 6 pro's lol) a new upswing, and establishing an upward moving average, with price above, someone like O'Neil - would take the first pull back to the line... I think what's key for pullbacks to moving averages, trendlines whatever, is looking at the candles - which is what Nison does, he's a candlestick god, who combines them with support/resistance in the form of moving averages, price, channels, fibs, etc. So looking for a hammer on a big board stock and then confirmation the following day combined with a bounce of some support is always a good thing.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  9. #19
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Hey guys,

    Not sure if posting charts would violate my TOS from another site I use, but futures are tanking and the ES mini (sp500) already took out a key support level. The NQ - nasdaq, is riding the line right now. Both broke thru 3 day Donchian channel bottom lines, that's not good. Not sure if you guys have anything in the general market, but look out tomorrow.

    In asia, the SSEC is down 5.79%, and Europe is straight red across the board.

    Ugly.

    This doesn't really mean anything for the pennies, except for SIRI, since it's listed and a lot of techies that trade baskets of stocks will drop this before they drop AAPL.

    While things could mellow out, I usually look to futures to see what the rest of the market will do. If we get monday closes below some of these short term trendlines, we could be getting some form of correction, whether its building some other pattern, like a triangle, new channel, handle or tankage. Some of these futures were kind of locked in trading ranges, and it looks, at least tonight, the resolution may be to the downside.

    Of course, by morning everything could change, but its looking bleak at the moment.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  10. #20
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    I may be juggling early, but
    JPMUH sept $40 strike puts on JPM may be ok, will look at the stock price tomorrow, cheaper than PCLN puts.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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