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Thread: Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

  1. #101
    billhart22 is offline
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    Qasp

    Here is the outlook for QASP. It could go either way tomorrow. I know that is a brilliant statement, but when you look at the chart you will see what I am talking about.

    The Spinning top is above both the ema9 and the ema 36, which is a bullish sign, even though the spinning top is black. I suppose there is a case for the triangle being a descending triangle, but it would be so ever slight that is is not worth picking shit with the chickens. For all practical purposes a pennant has just been formed.

    As far as buy and sell. I would just wait to see where this puppy is going for a while before making any buying decisions. It would be a "hold" out of the gate in my mind, and then a "buy if". IMPO.


    Last edited by billhart22; 08-17-2009 at 11:45 PM.

  2. #102
    bassmaster is offline
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    dave whats the optimal radius of a stop on an option?

  3. #103
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by billhart22 View Post
    It could go either way tomorrow. I know that is a brilliant statement,
    LOL - sounds like my forecasts!!!!! Let's see, what did I say about HAS - if it rally's while the rest of the market tanks, its good. If it falls with it, it's bad... LOL.

    Just pray QASP doesn't open and close tomorrow even with today's close... otherwise, you'll be wrong! LOL
    Last edited by Dr. Dave; 08-17-2009 at 11:51 PM. Reason: more LOL
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  4. #104
    bassmaster is offline
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    bill how are you?
    what kind of renovation did you do today?

  5. #105
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    dave whats the optimal radius of a stop on an option?
    Depends on the time frame and your choice of contract.. that's what makes them so tricky, for this trade, I'm just going for underlying JPM not to break today's high tomorrow, since it's a quickly. This wasn't the best of trades, but I like the closes today.

    For intermediate trades, some guys go with 50% of the cost of the contract. Some go with 80%. But the strike from being in the money, and the time left to expiration kind of dictates those choices. It's really easy on an intermediate trade on a contract that's far from the strike to be down 90%, and then back to profit in a matter of 3-4 days. Likewise, trading them in the money, you would be looking at swings likely well within the 50%, and not get stopped out.

    If GS and JPM start backtesting their trendlines, which is possible, we don't have a good entry, and we'll definately see that.

    The best way I have found so far, is to wait until the stock is in a trading range... where bollingers are compressed... then you have a good tight stop loss - you pick the direction - technically you could buy a call and a put then, and once a the new trend pops, if you have one contract, you have your stop loss at the top or bottom of the tight range. With playing both, you just cut the one going the wrong way, and let the other out pace the loss. This is called a strangle.

    Let me know if you want me to post my track record that I have tallied for these quickies... you can see the volatility. I think I could make a snap shot.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  6. #106
    billhart22 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dave View Post
    LOL - sounds like my forecasts!!!!! Let's see, what did I say about HAS - if it rally's while the rest of the market tanks, its good. If it falls with it, it's bad... LOL.

    Just pray QASP doesn't open and close tomorrow even with today's close... otherwise, you'll be wrong!
    That is hilarious!

    Dave, that is called hedging! I can't tell where the damn thing is going, lol!! It is stuck right in between light and darkness right now and is just a hair dark. This is a case for Obi Wan Kenobe

  7. #107
    billhart22 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    bill how are you?
    what kind of renovation did you do today?
    Hey buddy,

    I just replaced a kitchen faucet for a friend of mine. He is a great friend - he pays. Tomorrow if it isn't wet out I am going to touch his deck up. He has his house on the market. It is one fantastic home. Probably 1.5 million. I have done all of the work on it.

    Are you ready for your tournament tomorrow?

  8. #108
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by billhart22 View Post
    Hey buddy,

    I just replaced a kitchen faucet for a friend of mine. He is a great friend - he pays. Tomorrow if it isn't wet out I am going to touch his deck up. He has his house on the market. It is one fantastic home. Probably 1.5 million. I have done all of the work on it.

    Are you ready for your tournament tomorrow?
    my tournament is on thursday.. and getting close to ready. starting to feel good, which is a step closer

  9. #109
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    my tournament is on thursday.. and getting close to ready. starting to feel good, which is a step closer
    LOL, so my friend (who is really a friend of a friend that moved here) that I went to see Fan Halen with (btw, that show was creepy, those guys were so close to the real thing, that we caught ourselves believing it here and there - but even the band made jokes about it - ie. "Rule #1 - drink as much as possible, so that as the night goes on, you'll think that you're really watching Van Halen") I found out is a full time TA based futures trader. But get this, he hates casino's and gambling.. I think his anger is more directed toward slot machines and games where you have no choice but to lose, like roulette - but I found it funny, and even he joked about it.

    I can see where playing poker could really help in the market in terms of guaging risks, etc.
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  10. #110
    Dr. Dave is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by billhart22 View Post
    That is hilarious!

    Dave, that is called hedging! I can't tell where the damn thing is going, lol!! It is stuck right in between light and darkness right now and is just a hair dark. This is a case for Obi Wan Kenobe
    Maybe we can become talking heads on CNBC - it would help the public at least to be right 50% of the time. LOL. You're show could be called "Stock Shop".
    Positions: Change so often, it's no longer useful to update this...

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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