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  1. phatphriar is offline
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    08-06-2009, 08:24 PM #1

    Affect of Howard Stern Departure

    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks

  2. denb45 is offline
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    08-06-2009, 08:34 PM #2
    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    I don't really think Sterns departure for SXM would really make any difference at all, his listeners aren't what hold this company together....IMO Stern isn't what's hold this company together, he's only a very small part of this, he could be replaced by any other shock-jock, are his channel could be turned into a music channel for all I care.....I wouldn't worry about a mass exodus by subscribers, if he go's somewhere else.......
    Last edited by denb45; 08-06-2009 at 08:36 PM.

  3. fm no more is offline
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    08-06-2009, 08:47 PM #3
    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    60% ? Really ? 60 % of Sirius Xm is not listening to Howard . Before the merger Xm had 10,000,000 subs and Sirius had around 8,000,000 ( Xm sub's could not hear Howard ) after the merger only about 500,000 got the best of package . Howard has about 1,000,000 listeners tops and i don't think him leaving will amount to much , SiriusXm's playist's on their channels will have more effect on the bottom line i think .

  4. SiriusBuzz is offline
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    08-06-2009, 09:40 PM #4
    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    60% is WAY high. I would say that it is closer to 5-10% exclusively. I am sure its more like 30% that listen to him more than anything else but EXCLUSIVELY? That is a HUGE stretch. If anyone is listening to his channels exclusively they need to get out more and take a spin around the dial.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  5. SiriMonkey is offline
    08-06-2009, 10:41 PM #5
    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks

    I also think 60% is much too high of a number who listen to Stern exclusively.
    Maybe initially, he is what drew them to Sat Radio. But, years later, Sat radio
    is so much more than just Howard Stern.
    With music, news, talk and sports, people have expanded their listening to
    include these different categories.
    If and when Stern departs, I believe most people will remain with the product they love.

    Julie

  6. sxminvestor is offline
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    08-06-2009, 10:47 PM #6
    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    I also think 60% is much too high of a number who listen to Stern exclusively.
    Maybe initially, he is what drew them to Sat Radio. But, years later, Sat radio
    is so much more than just Howard Stern.
    With music, news, talk and sports, people have expanded their listening to
    include these different categories.
    If and when Stern departs, I believe most people will remain with the product they love.

    Julie
    If they lost 500,000 subs, that would be 60M dollars - he gets paid at least 80M in cash per year, so they already just improved their cash position.

    My guess is that he will sign on for another 3 year extension with alot more time off, maybe work only 3 days/week for less $, maybe 60M/year. This way they still retain his audience, he is happy and it helps the bottom line.

  7. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    08-06-2009, 10:51 PM #7
    Moot point . . Stern is going no where because he has no where else to go.

    You know it, I know it, Stern knows it, Buchwald knows it and Mel knows it.

    He will do a 3 year extension, or an extension to coincide with Mel's recent extension, at a lower base salary with points on the backend that could amount to more than his current base . . especially now that the company will be making money for the first time in the history of satellite radio.

    They should get the extension done pronto as a show of strength and to keep up a steady stream of positive news releases . .

  8. phatphriar is offline
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    08-07-2009, 12:11 AM #8
    I agree that 60% is a high number but before Howard signed, Sirius has about 500000 listener to XMs 4000000. By the time it was all said and done Sirius had taken over XM and now has 18000000 subs. If you say that Howard only brings in 10% that would be 1.8 mil subs. That kind of loss would have a pretty big impact on sat radio right? I have to disagree that Howard has nowhere to go. If he has the 1.8 mill and he starts broadcasting on-line for $5 a month that would be $9mil a month. I am not trying to jock Howard but I think it might be short sighted not to think that his departure could have an effect on subs and ultimately Sirius stock.

  9. Sinster is offline
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    08-12-2009, 01:32 PM #9
    If you think Stern will not affect Sirius/XM subscription you are mistaken. Look at how many subscribers who did bring with him as phat pointed out.

  10. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    08-12-2009, 02:21 PM #10
    Funny . . I see everybody focuses purely on "sub losses"

    If you think ad revenue sucks now . . . I'd really hate to see what it might do to ad revenue if he leaves

    Get it done Mel . . and pay what you need to (preferably with a few pts on the backend) but rework his other deal so that content distribution is not so damn restrictive . . and get him to defer some of that friggin money this time . .

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