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Thread: Affect of Howard Stern Departure

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  1. #1
    phatphriar is offline
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    Affect of Howard Stern Departure

    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks

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    denb45 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    I don't really think Sterns departure for SXM would really make any difference at all, his listeners aren't what hold this company together....IMO Stern isn't what's hold this company together, he's only a very small part of this, he could be replaced by any other shock-jock, are his channel could be turned into a music channel for all I care.....I wouldn't worry about a mass exodus by subscribers, if he go's somewhere else.......
    Last edited by denb45; 08-06-2009 at 08:36 PM.

  3. #3
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by denb45 View Post
    I don't really think Sterns departure for SXM would really make any difference at all, his listeners aren't what hold this company together....IMO Stern isn't what's hold this company together, he's only a very small part of this, he could be replaced by any other shock-jock, are his channel could be turned into a music channel for all I care.....I wouldn't worry about a mass exodus by subscribers, if he go's somewhere else.......
    I respectfully disagree. Me and my wife have 3 subs, and if Howard goes, we'll likely keep one as we've become fond of The Spectrum and Coffeehouse on the weekends and evenings.

    Remember how "it" happened. Sirius contracted Stern, subs went crazy, Sirius "merged" with XM. We can argue sub loss verus Howard's pay, but SIRI will lose subs - no doubt.

    Julie - there's really no need to "bump". It's not like there's billions of threads here at the Buzz.

  4. #4
    Muse is offline
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    A couple points to make. First, saying that in 5 years people will connect their cell phones to their cars to listen to music is stupid. Why? Because I do that now. And it's super irritating, especially for short trips. Maybe if wireless power matures to the point of being feasible in a car, and all data is sent to the stereo via Bluetooth or another wireless protocol, it would be more practical. But as it is now, I would rather take the quality hit of Sirius and pay for a subscription than have to connect my phone every time I'm in the car to listen to Pandora or something similar. And I can take phone calls.

    The other thing you aren't taking into consideration is that Sirius and XM both have/had significant terrestrial networks. Your radio can use satellite or ground-based signals. As Sirius grows, they could go the route of expanding their terrestrial network rather than their satellite network, bypassing the high costs mentioned previously.

    No matter how available 3G and 4G and whatever the next generation is becomes, there are always going to be dead areas where there is no terrestrial signal, and that is where satellite shines. Since radio is predominantly used in the car, there will always be the issue of signal strength and dead areas, and satellite largely bypasses that.

    To answer the original poster's question, which I haven't seen addressed yet (what would be the effect on SIRI stock), I think that the stock would immediately drop about 5% on the news. Stocks all have inherent headline risk, and people associate Sirius with Stern. However, I believe the things that make Sirius a good stock would not change, and it would recover and continue to grow. I think if you are long on Sirius because of Stern, you haven't done your homework. However, if you are long because of future earnings growth, and confidence in the business model, Stern has nothing to do with those things.

    Just my thoughts.

  5. #5
    SiriMonkey is offline
    http://www.mediapost.com/publication...art_aid=118856

    Interesting article. Obviously, a negotiating ploy by Sern.

    He ain't goin' nowhere.

  6. #6
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Th wall st journal article is bogus. If they listend to the show they would know that he has been going back and forth about staying for months now and if you tallied all of them up I am sure I have heard him say that he is staying far more then he is leaving. Yet, the journal makes it sound like he has spoken about it once and that he is leaning towards leaving. This is total nonsense and almost looks like a tip off from someone rather then any kind of investigative reporting from someone who actually listens to the show.
    Charles LaRocca
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  7. #7
    fm no more is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    60% ? Really ? 60 % of Sirius Xm is not listening to Howard . Before the merger Xm had 10,000,000 subs and Sirius had around 8,000,000 ( Xm sub's could not hear Howard ) after the merger only about 500,000 got the best of package . Howard has about 1,000,000 listeners tops and i don't think him leaving will amount to much , SiriusXm's playist's on their channels will have more effect on the bottom line i think .

  8. #8
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks
    60% is WAY high. I would say that it is closer to 5-10% exclusively. I am sure its more like 30% that listen to him more than anything else but EXCLUSIVELY? That is a HUGE stretch. If anyone is listening to his channels exclusively they need to get out more and take a spin around the dial.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  9. #9
    SiriMonkey is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by phatphriar View Post
    What affect would Sterns departure have on Sirius Stock?I have heard that as many as 60% listen to his channels exclusively. Is anyone concerned that if he left there could be a mass of sub cancellations? I am interested to here what people think about this? I am long on sirius but this does concern me a little.


    Thanks

    I also think 60% is much too high of a number who listen to Stern exclusively.
    Maybe initially, he is what drew them to Sat Radio. But, years later, Sat radio
    is so much more than just Howard Stern.
    With music, news, talk and sports, people have expanded their listening to
    include these different categories.
    If and when Stern departs, I believe most people will remain with the product they love.

    Julie

  10. #10
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by julietoo View Post
    I also think 60% is much too high of a number who listen to Stern exclusively.
    Maybe initially, he is what drew them to Sat Radio. But, years later, Sat radio
    is so much more than just Howard Stern.
    With music, news, talk and sports, people have expanded their listening to
    include these different categories.
    If and when Stern departs, I believe most people will remain with the product they love.

    Julie
    If they lost 500,000 subs, that would be 60M dollars - he gets paid at least 80M in cash per year, so they already just improved their cash position.

    My guess is that he will sign on for another 3 year extension with alot more time off, maybe work only 3 days/week for less $, maybe 60M/year. This way they still retain his audience, he is happy and it helps the bottom line.

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