SIRI Intraday Friday and weekend 07-31-09

[SiriuslyLong]

Payday! literally, but if you have a job, not because your('re) invested in sirius xm.

Good morning all....suggestion time:

I suggest we go back to a weely SIRI thread instead of the daily, it seems a lot of good discussion is being snapped because of the start of the new day. For instance last week there was a good technology discussion going that broke at the end and wasn't continued to the next day.

Also, since the BK scare and debt dealings their(ere) hasn't been a whole lot of news.

The weekly thread was first started because the comments section under the articles was generating alot of discussion off topic to the article but good for general sxm investing. Then with the BK scare there was so much posting in the weekly thread that we had to go to a daily because the pages were huge.

Also, alot of discussion happens after i go to bed and quite frankly I don't put the effort to copy and paste from yesterday to today to make a comment on that, and its hurting my post count, lol, jk. but seriously, the night discussions are good and aren't being continued by the day timers.

Please consider going back to a weekly thread? Maybe starting monday we can post a weekly thread and Charles you can help us by deleting/merging/whatever if someone starts a tuesday thread. If im way off let me know.

I'm fine with that. Along with the points you cite, SB also lost some folks to TOS. With a daily thread ending 3 - 5 pages long; it seems right to consolidate.

[imromo24]

judging by the streets bashing articles this week I have to think q2 is going to be a ++ surprise, jmo

[SiriuslyLong]

judging by the streets bashing articles this week I have to think q2 is going to be a ++ surprise, jmo

Let's hope. Last time, Mel upped something from 300 to 350k, and the bastards found something else to gripe about and knock SIRI back down.

[proactiv]

Thanks for the summary. I sort of new those numbers, but it's really nice to have them staring at me!
We're up 2 pennies already today. This morning may have been the buying time. I'm jumping in at the next dip and then jump back out after a 4 cent rise.
I've been doing this for over 18 months. Sooner or later, I'll earn back the money that I invested when SIRI was in the 4 dollar range.

Candleman,
I hope you earn back every penny in spades, and that SIRI regains the $4.00 level and beyond over the next 2 years.

I've only been investing in SIRI since the beginning of the year and took a nice profit last quarter by buying prior to the runup and selling right at quarterly report time. I've done it a few more times as well since then, taking advantage of the periodic up/down swings. I'm liking what I'm seeing today and am hoping for .50 by Wednesday next week.

That's been my basic strategy for far, and I'm betting it will work again this quarter and even next quarter, but after that I'm hoping I can hold long and watch us break above $1.00. That would be sweet. And who knows where we might be a few years down the road. Right now, I'm just expanding my position by riding the short term ups and downs. Heck, a 4 cent gain at these levels is 10%. I would be happy to repeat this strategy every quarter!

[Hopeful]

judging by the streets bashing articles this week I have to think q2 is going to be a ++ surprise, jmo

Let's hope so! The timing of Mel's raise and options would leave one to think positive EPS or some level of good news is coming for Q2... However, SIRI and the media always seem to come out negative so who knows !

Long SIRI!

I prefer the daily threads! But who cares what I think lol...

[SiriuslyLong]

Watch the last 5 minutes of today's session. I guarentee SIRI will not close > 2.7 cents. Sorry to be so cynical, but it happens over and over and over......................

This is why I suck at investing LOL. Closed up 2.9 cents.

[Sirius Roadkill]

Let's hope. Last time, Mel upped something from 300 to 350k, and the bastards found something else to gripe about and knock SIRI back down.

The only guidance the Company is now providing is EBITDA (a guidance policy with which I completely agree for reasons previously posted); they are not guiding as to other metrics at this point.

Original EBITDA guidance at time of merger (July 2008) was $300mm; this was revised up to $350mm guidance at end of Q4 and then guided-up once more to "more than $350mm" at Q1 CC . .

This is where I predict the surprise will come from . . I am hoping that they will guide-up on EBITDA to $375mm-$400mm based on continued improvement in operational efficiencies/expense-side contraction (which is justification for Greenstein's raise) and "less-worse" sub losses in Q2 . . which would then make the rest of the year very-very interesting . . .

As Irish correctly pointed-out in another post, Mel had said in July 2008 that "but for one payment" connected with the new Sirius Satellite, the Company would be FCF positive for the full year 2009 . .

Now, if they guide-up to $400mm EBITDA . . . it is "possible" to make an argument that for the first time in the history of satellite radio, the Company could end up being FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE FOR THE FULL YEAR 2009.

(Tyler should be along any second now with a big bucket of cold water; but if you do Tyler, before you dump anything on my head, I insist that you go on the record first as to what the capex charges will be for the Sirius Sat just launched on 6-30/7-1)

[proactiv]

I'm looking at extended-hours trading right now, and the last block traded at .449. Over the past few evenings, I've noticed as much as a half-cent drop after hours. But as of now (it's 4:30 EST), we're hanging in right were we were at the closing bell (.45).

Decent volume today too.

[imromo24]

I swear the upgrade from S&P included a statement that EBIDTA was going to be 500MM$$

[imromo24]

Let's hope so! The timing of Mel's raise and options would leave one to think positive EPS or some level of good news is coming for Q2... ...

The two raises seem like a "POP the cork" celebration for a job well done, IMO. It may be seriously on the road to profitability, although it might be a Q or 2, I think they know a job has been completed.