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  1. imromo24 is offline
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    07-30-2009, 02:25 PM #21
    also, i firmly believe once we break $1 everything will be behind us and we have a grand ol' time jumping 10 and 20 cents on the wind blowing...

  2. jonpluc@aol.com is offline
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    07-30-2009, 03:43 PM #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post

    but hey, look . . XM has what, 7mm subscribers with no Stern

    john/163888 may be right on this . . subscribers came for Stern but will stay for the overall quality of content
    This is what i call wishful thinking. I dont subscribe to Sirius for overall quality of content. I listen to Stern 99% of the time and maybe i listen to the 80s or 90s channel the other 1% of the time. When Stern is in reruns, my Stiletto 2 remains dark.


  3. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:15 PM #24
    Quote Originally Posted by jonpluc@aol.com View Post
    This is what i call wishful thinking. I dont subscribe to Sirius for overall quality of content. I listen to Stern 99% of the time and maybe i listen to the 80s or 90s channel the other 1% of the time. When Stern is in reruns, my Stiletto 2 remains dark.
    how's that "AOL" account workin'out for ya pardner?



    p.s. sorry jon, cheap shot I know . . just making the point that things do change . . and XM did have near 8mm listeners on their own . . and it was pretty much agreed I believe that Stern was responsible for about 3mm sign-ups

    I too am a fan . . have been since 66 WNBC in New York days when "dial-a-date" and "lesbian dating game" were all the rage and Howch was taking on pig virus and calling Don Imus a bigot and messing with Soupy Sales and killing the morning show at WMMR in Phila . . but things do change

    People thought they couldn't live without Compuserve or Prodigy or ah . . . AOL . . that's all I'm sayin . . but I respect your feelings and allegiance to the show.

    Hope he stays too . . but will not lose sleep if he doesn't.

  4. john is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:29 PM #25
    Quote Originally Posted by jonpluc@aol.com View Post
    This is what i call wishful thinking. I dont subscribe to Sirius for overall quality of content. I listen to Stern 99% of the time and maybe i listen to the 80s or 90s channel the other 1% of the time. When Stern is in reruns, my Stiletto 2 remains dark.


    jonpluc@aol.com, Just so it is clear I am not saying they will not lose any subs. Point is, what he does after and how he gos out will also have an effect. Reguardless there will be some loss just not what you think unless you are thinking 200,000 (people like yourself) is alot if he just retires. I on the other hand dont consider that to be that many considering the money he is paid. So if they keep the channel line up the same just without Stern and can save 25 to 50 million a year it is a savings of at least 1 to 26 million a year, if SIRIXM only loses 200,000 subs because of Stern retiring. If he gos somewhere else then the sub loss would be bigger maybe double or triple.




    P.S. Stern and his channels have to be responsible for at least 1.3 million subs for the contract to make basic finacial sense.
    Last edited by john; 07-30-2009 at 05:36 PM.

  5. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:34 PM #26
    Quote Originally Posted by proactiv View Post
    Hello there Roadkill. Just curious.. What kind of a surprise are you anticipating, and why?

    Perhaps you have already discussed this previously, and if so, excuse me. I'm new to this forum..

    Best regards,
    Paul
    Hi Paul . . . welcome aboard!

    Really just speculative conjecture on my part but I am hoping that the net subscriber losses in Q2 will have been less-worse (which of course is the new good) than expected due to growth in other revenue streams . . .

    Alternatively . . . might not be a sub story at all but maybe continued expense-side improvement which moves-up EBITDA guidance once again (that is probably where the surprise could come).

    Of course there will be some "one-time" expenditures such as debt refinancing and exercise of stock options that will impact the bottom line (and possibly (I throw that in for Irish) a cap-ex charge related to the Sirius Satellite that was just launched on 6-30/7-1 depending which time zone you correlate your expenses to (ha - thanks Homer))

    Anyway Paul . . . I'm thinking that a raise to Greenstein at this point would either have to be incredibly bad timing, or, a show of strength based on a better than expected Q . . . I'm taking the counterintutive interpretation and betting that the raise to Greenstein is a bullish indicator.

    Lets touch base again on the 6th to see how it turns out . . .

  6. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:40 PM #27
    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    jonpluc@aol.com, Just so it is clear I am not saying they will not lose any subs. Point is, what he does after and how he gos out will also have an effect. Reguardless there will be some loss just not what you think unless you are thinking 200,000 (people like yourself) is alot if he just retires. I on the other hand dont consider that to be that many considering the money he is paid. So if they keep the channel line up the same just without Stern and can save 25 to 50 million a year it is a savings of at least 1 to 26 million a year, if SIRIXM only loses 200,000 subs because of Stern retiring. If he gos somewhere else then the sub loss would be bigger maybe double or triple.

    P.S. Stern and his channels have to be responsible for at least 1.3 million subs for the contract to make basic finacial sense.
    Hey john/163888 . . I knew you would be along any second; good analysis!

    let me ask you this . . what if he goes exclusively "podcast?"

    what effect would you factor-in based on podcast?

    thanks

  7. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:46 PM #28
    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    was greeny an XM guy?
    Scott A. Greenstein
    President and Chief Content Officer
    Sirius XM Radio, Incorporated
    New York , NY
    Sector: SERVICES / Broadcasting - Radio
    Officer since May 2004

    49 Years Old
    Scott A. Greenstein has served as our President, Chief Content Officer, since May 2004. Prior to May 2004, Mr. Greenstein was Chief Executive Officer of The Greenstein Group, a media and entertainment consulting firm. From 1999 until 2002, he was Chairman of USA Films, a motion picture production, marketing and distribution company. From 1997 until 1999, Mr. Greenstein was Co-President of October Films, a motion picture production, marketing and distribution company. Prior to joining October Films, Mr. Greenstein was Senior Vice President of Motion Pictures, Music, New Media and Publishing at Miramax Films, and held senior positions at Viacom Inc.
    Forbes Rankings
    Sirius Satellite Radio - 1,961st on the Forbes Global 2000 in 2005
    See All Rankings >

    Compensation for 2008
    Salary $845,834.00
    Bonus $0.00
    Other Annual Compensation $0.00
    Long term incentive plan payouts $0.00
    Restricted stock awards $233,853.00
    Security underlying options $0.00
    All other compensation $6,900.00
    Option awards $ $1,903,228.00
    Non-equity incentive plan compensation $0.00
    Change in pension value and nonqualified deferred compensation earnings $0.00
    Total Compensation $2,989,815.00

    Options Granted
    Grant
    Date All other stock awards (# of shares of stocks or units) Number of securities underlying options Exercise
    or base
    price Percent of total options granted in fiscal year Grant date fair value of stock and option awards See More
    01/23/2008 - - $2.87 0% $1,123,873.00
    01/23/2008 153,311 - $ - 0% $440,003.00
    02/01/2007 - - $3.70 0% $851,280.00
    02/01/2007 108,109 - $ - 0% $400,003.00
    02/01/2006 61,296 - $ - 0% $350,000.00
    08/08/2005 - 1,250,000 $6.60 23.7% $ -


    Expiration date 08/08/2015
    Value of options potential value 5% $5,188,381.00
    Value of options potential value 10% $13,148,375.00
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (threshold $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (target $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (maximum $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (threshold #) -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (target #) -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (maximum #) -
    Close

    05/05/2004 - 2,800,000 $3.14 6.2% $ -


    Expiration date 05/05/2014
    Value of options potential value 5% $5,529,242.00
    Value of options potential value 10% $14,012,184.00
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (threshold $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (target $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (maximum $) $ -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (threshold #) -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (target #) -
    Estimated future payouts under non-equity incentive plan awards (maximum #) -
    Close


    Options Exercised
    Number of securities underlying options exercisable 1,600,000
    Number of securities underlying options unexercisable 2,450,000
    Value of unexercised options, currently exercisable $5,696,000.00
    Value of unexercised options, currently unexercisable $4,394,500.00

  8. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-30-2009, 05:55 PM #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeful View Post
    If I was lucky enough to be where you are right now I'd hop in a zodiac and go do some whale-watching in the sound . . . you've got some of the most beautiful natural vistas there . . take a break til 8/6 and go enjoy that cool fresh air

    p.s. honeymooned in Victoria circa 1991

  9. just sirius is offline
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    07-30-2009, 08:33 PM #30
    FYI

    AP reports CASH FOR CLUNKERS program to be suspended! Computer inept...unable to post link!