Originally Posted by
Sirius Roadkill
Irish, I know I might be parsing words here, or even mixing-up the quotes, but please indulge me and take one more look at "this" quote from Mel . .
Faber: -- BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE HERE.
Karmazin: AND I THINK THAT IS THE FUTURE, OKAY? I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED IMMEDIATELY $400 MILLION OF SYNERGY ON VIRTUALLY EVERY LINE ITEM OF THE P&L, SYNERGIES THAT WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT TO BE ABLE TO DELIVER NET OF THE COST BEFORE 2009. SO WHEN YOU TAKE THAT SYNERGY AND YOU ADD IT TO THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU GET, FOR THE FIRST TIME, POSITIVE EBITDA. NOW, IN MY OPINION, POSITIVE EBITDA ISN'T THE SAME THING AS MAKING MONEY.SO, WE'LL HAVE $300 MILLION OF EBITDA IN 2009, AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT -- BEFORE THAT SATELLITE, WE WILL BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
this is the part that draws my attention . . . and consternation:
"AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT"
so this is why I believe that there is "one payment" that has not yet been processed in 2009 related to the "Sirius" satellite just recently launched on June 30, 2009/July 1, 2009 (depending which time zone, LOL - thanks Homer). How much that "one payment" amounts to is anyone's guess but I would "think" it could be sizeable if it is the difference between being FCF positive and not being FCF positive for the whole year?
whadda ya think Irish?
Tyler . . . care to weigh in?