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  1. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-24-2009, 11:23 AM #11
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    They have no right, or reason anymore to not provide guidance. Longer they go without it, the more embarrassing it is for them. But EBITA is a bottom line type of measurement, so its something at least. If they raise that, at least, they might be able to get away again with no other guidance. But look at the SP. Its definately not helping.
    Yes, agree . . last meeting was "more than $350mm"

    I believe that it will go up again as they are managing expenses based on a 9mm OEM run-rate which I am sure we will beat . .

    Am not worried about them not guiding to FCF . . gives us an advantage (those of us who study and follow the stock closely that is)

    I think we all have a pretty good idea of the capex for Q3 & Q4 . . . I am very bullish for Q4

    p.s. lack of FCF guidance not embarrasing at all . . . pure strategy at this point; this is Mel playing poker with the shorts
    Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 07-24-2009 at 11:28 AM.

  2. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-24-2009, 11:38 AM #12
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    But look at the SP. Its definately not helping.
    oh yeah . . . I agree with this too!

    PFCF is the only thing that will legitimately move the needle at this point and the one thing the shorts have to fear . . . how long can they continue to go "all-in" not knowing what FCF card Mel might be holding?

    P.S. not saying you can't make money between now and then . . as you already have . . just playing the synthetic swings in SP . .

    per mel:

    "Murray, we’re not -- we are providing guidance on EBITDA but not on other measures going forward at this point and so I don’t think there’s a lot more we can say today than we’ve already put out there."

    but here's what I like even better . . this says it ALL; this is what Mel was brought in to do; memorize this and put it under a magnet on your file cabinet:

    "There is no question that we are running this company to generate the greatest amount of cash flow, as we believe that is how to create the most value for shareholders. There was a time when the focus was on adding new content and signing up OEMs. There was also a time when the focus was on adding subscribers at any cost. Today, with our strong subscriber position, all of the OEMs signed to long-term contracts and a complete content offering, our focus is on making money. "

  3. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    07-24-2009, 12:09 PM #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    I'm confused? Didn't Mel say at annual meeting that they are NOT providing guidance except as to EBITDA . . . which is why he side-stepped analysts' question concerning forward-looking capex?
    S-KILL,this reference was because at the time OEM auto installs were the only metric Analysts were counting on to evaluate the company and mel knew auto's were bad and he was trying to shift the emphasis to making a profit at the current Self pay subs on hand at 15 mill..He knew with cost cut synergies and rev increases to be in place for Quarters going forward a profit was coming regardless of Auto's problems ,which he knew would eventually improve,so he stopped giving guidance on other metrics..But a company MUST give guidance or die in analysts eyes,as you've seen with no real analysts covering SXM like before(19 compared to 7 currently) but it is changing now..If the company can't see into the future ,how can an investor be expected to buy the stock.

  4. relmor2003 is offline
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    07-24-2009, 01:39 PM #14
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    S-KILL,this reference was because at the time OEM auto installs were the only metric Analysts were counting on to evaluate the company and mel knew auto's were bad and he was trying to shift the emphasis to making a profit at the current Self pay subs on hand at 15 mill..He knew with cost cut synergies and rev increases to be in place for Quarters going forward a profit was coming regardless of Auto's problems ,which he knew would eventually improve,so he stopped giving guidance on other metrics..But a company MUST give guidance or die in analysts eyes,as you've seen with no real analysts covering SXM like before(19 compared to 7 currently) but it is changing now..If the company can't see into the future ,how can an investor be expected to buy the stock.
    I agree with you why Mel did it that way Irish. Only move to make at the time. Why give negative guidance, if you feel its now an unfair measure of your story. Thats why they might now give guidance on subs again. I think they might go back to even in Q3, and back to growing in Q4.

  5. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    07-24-2009, 01:40 PM #15
    Damn,where is everyone at today,was there a fire drill i didn't know about and cleared the building?

    Level2 is rocking with all bids on my board at .40 or above,haven't seen that in a long time,probably since run up to .63 day in March..

  6. SiriuslyLong is offline
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    07-24-2009, 01:40 PM #16
    Back up to 42 after taking on 1.7 cents of red. Wow. I'm impressed to see a little resilience. Can we close in the green?

  7. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    07-24-2009, 01:45 PM #17
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    I agree with you why Mel did it that way Irish. Only move to make at the time. Why give negative guidance, if you feel its now an unfair measure of your story. Thats why they might now give guidance on subs again. I think they might go back to even in Q3, and back to growing in Q4.
    Yes relmor,agree with your assesment on Subs going forward..we need to address self pay CHURN,which i beleive company has been attacking hard since last Quarter judging by some posting here on dealings with Customer service lately...we need to get Churn in the 1.6 to 1.8 range for self pay..

  8. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    07-24-2009, 01:47 PM #18
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    Back up to 42 after taking on 1.7 cents of red. Wow. I'm impressed to see a little resilience. Can we close in the green?
    Depends on late buying,not there right now...only 100k buyers till ,40 now..but they have a habit of just showing up and there is alot of stealth buying going on the last 2 weeks at least..IMHO

  9. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-24-2009, 02:22 PM #19
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    But a company MUST give guidance or die in analysts eyes,as you've seen with no real analysts covering SXM like before(19 compared to 7 currently)
    plenty of large, publicly traded, companies that give limited guidance (for various reasons) and thrive . . .

    Mel/Frear/Meyers et al gave sufficient EBITDA guidance at Q1 meeting . . . analysts can't get it right even when they have all the facts . .

    Number of analysts covering has more to do with embarrassing stock price than with lack of guidance . . . imo.

    stay the course Mel.

  10. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    07-24-2009, 02:26 PM #20
    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    I agree with you why Mel did it that way Irish. Only move to make at the time. Why give negative guidance, if you feel its now an unfair measure of your story. .
    did they not emphatically say that subs would be down in Q2??

    I would hardly call that positive guidance or trying to bury negative guidance . . . which smart-money will of course see-thru if a bunch of amateurs on a blog can see it

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