15 min to showtime and no daily thread started?
15 min to showtime and no daily thread started?
I know. I don't understand why though.
*yawn*
Good Morning Best And Brightest
Thanks for starting the thread. I was up early and headed to the airport. Hit traffic, missed my flight, so am now stuck at the airport waiting for another flight.
What are everyones thoughts on the earnings preview I published?
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder
Good Morning everyone!!!
Tyler, posted on my 1 time charges in article,but everything else looks about right,Good Job in breaking it down...It will be spun badly at first ,then if we get some good guidance,which they have to start doing again,we will rebound into Thanksgiving 3Q CC..
First things first . . . Superb work Tyler; Tuna Amobi has nothing on you.
Thank you. I have said it before . . you are the "franchise"
There is very little to disagree with in your piece, however, Irish' research shows less impact due to refi . . any thoughts?
Also, I am still hopeful that the CPO channel will have been more additive than expected . . to both top & bottom line (nominal subsidies)
fyi . . spammer is loading-up threads with sneaker ads . .
S-Kill,Cpo really didn't start until recently,some were as far back as march,but most were in the 2Q April-June,so we shouldn't see any benefit until 3Q and Really 4Q...we might see like 10k self pay sub adds,but that is reaching..IMHO
With 1 time charges,which the company always has,and seeing as how i forsaw none with unexpected bond deals,i'm revising my own est. of Eps from positive .01 to .03 down to even.00 to -(.02)..Est. is -(.013) so we should meet estimates..
Churn on self pay is key.with 1Q being 2.2% and Tyler expecting 1.8 to 1.9 %,if it goes down to 1.7 or lower we will be positive EPS..IMHO....
Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 07-21-2009 at 10:44 AM.
Yes, true as far as VW, MB & BMW . . but I was surprised to see that the CPO program has been around for quite some time . . check-out this news release from Oct 2006 (note 33% CPO penetration even back then):
Posted on: Wednesday, 11 October 2006, 09:00 CDT
WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Satellite Radio , the nation's leading satellite radio service with more than 7 million subscribers, and Acura today announced the first complimentary satellite radio service program for Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) vehicles. Beginning this fall, Acura will offer three months of complimentary XM service on CPO Acura models with factory-installed XM Satellite Radio, including: RL, TL, TSX and MDX. Acura currently inspects, certifies and remarkets more than 35,000 previously-owned vehicles per year, with approximately one-third featuring standard XM Satellite Radio, a rate that will grow over time as XM continues to be offered as standard equipment across Acura models.
Roadkill....
Acura is part of Honda, and was an XM staple along wih GM. Acura sales are decent, but make up less than 1% of the new car market. If you assume 1.7 million annualized as the CPO market, you need to consider the penetration rate across the board. The numbers are still pretty low. If they were anything substantial you would see it being talked about in Quarterly calls. I have always built in a small fudge factor into my model for the used car market.
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder