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Thread: SIRI Tue 7/21/09 Daily Thread

  1. #1
    jonpluc@aol.com is offline
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    SIRI Tue 7/21/09 Daily Thread

    15 min to showtime and no daily thread started?

  2. #2
    mrmertz is offline
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    I know. I don't understand why though.

    *yawn*

  3. #3
    TSavery is offline
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    Good Morning Best And Brightest

    Thanks for starting the thread. I was up early and headed to the airport. Hit traffic, missed my flight, so am now stuck at the airport waiting for another flight.

    What are everyones thoughts on the earnings preview I published?
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  4. #4
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Good Morning everyone!!!
    Tyler, posted on my 1 time charges in article,but everything else looks about right,Good Job in breaking it down...It will be spun badly at first ,then if we get some good guidance,which they have to start doing again,we will rebound into Thanksgiving 3Q CC..

  5. #5
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSavery View Post
    Good Morning Best And Brightest

    Thanks for starting the thread. I was up early and headed to the airport. Hit traffic, missed my flight, so am now stuck at the airport waiting for another flight.

    What are everyones thoughts on the earnings preview I published?
    Your low on revenue. Other than that, I cant argue with you.

  6. #6
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSavery View Post
    Good Morning Best And Brightest

    What are everyones thoughts on the earnings preview I published?
    First things first . . . Superb work Tyler; Tuna Amobi has nothing on you.

    Thank you. I have said it before . . you are the "franchise"

    There is very little to disagree with in your piece, however, Irish' research shows less impact due to refi . . any thoughts?

    Also, I am still hopeful that the CPO channel will have been more additive than expected . . to both top & bottom line (nominal subsidies)

  7. #7
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    fyi . . spammer is loading-up threads with sneaker ads . .

  8. #8
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    First things first . . . Superb work Tyler; Tuna Amobi has nothing on you.

    Thank you. I have said it before . . you are the "franchise"

    There is very little to disagree with in your piece, however, Irish' research shows less impact due to refi . . any thoughts?

    Also, I am still hopeful that the CPO channel will have been more additive than expected . . to both top & bottom line (nominal subsidies)
    S-Kill,Cpo really didn't start until recently,some were as far back as march,but most were in the 2Q April-June,so we shouldn't see any benefit until 3Q and Really 4Q...we might see like 10k self pay sub adds,but that is reaching..IMHO

    With 1 time charges,which the company always has,and seeing as how i forsaw none with unexpected bond deals,i'm revising my own est. of Eps from positive .01 to .03 down to even.00 to -(.02)..Est. is -(.013) so we should meet estimates..

    Churn on self pay is key.with 1Q being 2.2% and Tyler expecting 1.8 to 1.9 %,if it goes down to 1.7 or lower we will be positive EPS..IMHO....
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 07-21-2009 at 10:44 AM.

  9. #9
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    S-Kill,Cpo really didn't start until recently,some were as far back as march,but most were in the 2Q April-June,so we shouldn't see any benefit until 3Q and Really 4Q...
    Yes, true as far as VW, MB & BMW . . but I was surprised to see that the CPO program has been around for quite some time . . check-out this news release from Oct 2006 (note 33% CPO penetration even back then):

    Posted on: Wednesday, 11 October 2006, 09:00 CDT

    WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Satellite Radio , the nation's leading satellite radio service with more than 7 million subscribers, and Acura today announced the first complimentary satellite radio service program for Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) vehicles. Beginning this fall, Acura will offer three months of complimentary XM service on CPO Acura models with factory-installed XM Satellite Radio, including: RL, TL, TSX and MDX. Acura currently inspects, certifies and remarkets more than 35,000 previously-owned vehicles per year, with approximately one-third featuring standard XM Satellite Radio, a rate that will grow over time as XM continues to be offered as standard equipment across Acura models.

  10. #10
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill View Post
    Yes, true as far as VW, MB & BMW . . but I was surprised to see that the CPO program has been around for quite some time . . check-out this news release from Oct 2006 (note 33% CPO penetration even back then):

    Posted on: Wednesday, 11 October 2006, 09:00 CDT

    WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Satellite Radio , the nation's leading satellite radio service with more than 7 million subscribers, and Acura today announced the first complimentary satellite radio service program for Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) vehicles. Beginning this fall, Acura will offer three months of complimentary XM service on CPO Acura models with factory-installed XM Satellite Radio, including: RL, TL, TSX and MDX. Acura currently inspects, certifies and remarkets more than 35,000 previously-owned vehicles per year, with approximately one-third featuring standard XM Satellite Radio, a rate that will grow over time as XM continues to be offered as standard equipment across Acura models.
    Roadkill....

    Acura is part of Honda, and was an XM staple along wih GM. Acura sales are decent, but make up less than 1% of the new car market. If you assume 1.7 million annualized as the CPO market, you need to consider the penetration rate across the board. The numbers are still pretty low. If they were anything substantial you would see it being talked about in Quarterly calls. I have always built in a small fudge factor into my model for the used car market.
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

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