QASP -
I looked at some charts on this, for quite a while tonight - I'm too tired to draw, but they are a puzzler. I give it a 61.8% chance to the upside - I mean the first pattern that catches the eye is ugly! but taken in a different perspective, it could be a pullback for more to come. Anyway, you fried what was left of my brain after being awake for 24 hours yet again working on funding applications.
Originally Posted by Skivail
Curious question for you guys.
I have been reading the blog for about a month now and every once in awhile spng gets mentioned. I know that it is a real product that showed revenue, but I was curious as to why the stock shot up like it did between July 10 - 13. I see that it was a sub-penny and then it hit .2, I am sure on good news. I guess my question is, what happened to make this stock take off? Did anybody see it coming or was it basically a fluke?
Again, I am new to the game and trying to learn as much as possible. I wish I had the dedication like Sean. I fortunately, also unfortunately, am in law enforcement so it really doesn't give me a bunch of time to play. So sorry for all the questions that I probably could get the answers to if I committed myself. On another note, I do like to gamble (play penny stocks) and am totally cool with loosing and making moneyIt is all part of the game...
Not a bad question, and also not a likely fluke either... I can't answer directly without doing a bit of research myself... but if you're new, I can shed a little light, at least from my perspective.
Stocks are bought and sold for various reasons.
Fundamentals, Technicals and Perception alter the price.
Fundamentals would say be increasing sales, new products and increasing earnings per share quarter after quarter. Or perhaps deeper analysis of valuation of the company. A lot of folks that do this sort of trading may fall into the "longs" or buy and hold types. Not all, but many.
Technicals would be more of the realm for day traders, swing traders, pattern traders, momentum traders - people who spend less time worrying about the news (or don't even look at it whatsoever), but using past price and volume to decide their entries.
Then Perception is of course deals with psychology, guaging where market sentiment is, or seriously speculating on where the company should go, and thus the price.
They are of course interrelated.
So if you want to see if there was news for the pop you saw, you can likely look at the companies webpage for press releases (fundamental for the most part)
If you want to see a mixture of perception and also to check if there was some fundamental announcement, go to Ray's www.ddmachine.com - search the stock on one of the featured message boards, and check the dates. They may be talking about news that day, but you can also see the perception amongst the players - likely the slight rise before the larger spikes had some of the posters all giddy, while others started buying in after the move had started - as they felt like they were falling behind.
The most likely scenario is going back further... and this of course all my speculative personal opinion BS... but....
Somewhere at the end of march, either 1) good news came out, 2) people with friends on the inside new of that good news, or a fundamental shift in the company was going to take place. So, actually, it would be interesting to search the time frame when things all occured... and relate it to the chart - in fact, maybe I'll even do it, as it would be a good exercise to really get a full understanding of a run-up. 3) There could also have been a pump and dump scam on the works - but I figure that would have been closer to the date you refer too.
Anyway, the spike in April likely would have been enough to get the stock ticker out on the radar so to speak - unusual price climbs with volume get picked up and you have a rash of speculative traders start looking over the company.
Make enough noise, you can pick up more people as traffic pics up on message boards etc.
The spike in may on whatever news there was there, likely really put the stock on the board.
Now - after the spike on the 18th of may - there could have been news, maybe a lot of hype on message boards, who knows... you can find out though- but now the different types of traders come into the mix.
The fact that the stock didn't pull back all that far and had consistent closes in the upper part of the trading day (3 is good enough for most) - and that the lows weren't below the 50% range of the move going back to the 16th, would have been good enough to pick up the attention of the tecnichal traders. the small spike in price during the second trading day of june would have brought quite a few in - (I would have played it, as you can see, I did something similar with RTGV - and was anticipating a same type play for BEHL (but was asleep that day - oh well) - and for either company I wouldn't have put much effort into looking for news, etc.)... but then you have the beginning of momentum - so now you have TA traders jumping in, which aids in the perception of the stock price for any longs and speculators who by then may also decide to put more money in. It snowballs from there so to speak.
Coulda been news, there could have been anticipation of news, or it could be a mixture of the perceptions.
To know whether/when to have gotten in on the action - depends on your strategies and what type trader you are. If we could only know with certainty, we'd all be rich.
But the speculative and more fundamental traders would have been in the market early on - their profits (or unrealized gains I suppose) would have been determined how early they came across the ticker or had heard of the company. The technical guys likely didn't pop onto the scene until the middle of may. The second or third day of june was their buy signal. The 4th day was likely the exit point for most, and the momentum was likely carried on by other types of traders. Holding any longer than that most TA guys would bail by the end of the 9th.
So short answer (well, likely not the correct answer, more opinion) - it could have been news, the anticipation of news, or just the momentum carried it there. But it is common for newer folks to feel that a price move was random without a press release, when in actuality its moved often times by people who trade using different methods, some of which wouldn't have even known the news was anticipated or existed.
For instance, the whole reason why I'm even on this board was because I got together with a friend for a SIRI trade. On my side, and particularly for that 1st SIRI trade, I did not look at, nor wanted to know any fundamental details or news about the stock - I didn't want stuff like that to sway my judgement. In the end I contributed to the pop and the drop around the days that we made the trade, and to my knowledge afterwards - while there was news and fundamentals to be released in the short term ahead - I believe it was actually the fact that the rest of the market was chasing its 200 sma, and that aided the price in relation to whatever news was cooking for the company.
Anyway, I guess I didn't answer your question directly, but just wanted to point out some of the different ways stocks are traded and how its tough to predict anything - or rather pps, because of the different players involved.
By the way, since hanging out with you crazy penny chasers, I decided to rent an educational video from netflix. It's called Boiler Room. Thought it might help me from over extending myself, or perhaps going in with too little.
Hahaha - maybe next week we could call the list - "Boiler room thread for the week of July 26, 2009" hahaha.
i can't decide, IFSL, SORA, or QASPall good ending candles?
in a stock that goes up as fast as SARO, typically what time of day would you say there would be a big fall if there was going to be one?
That is a good movie! I really liked it. They had people buying into non-existent companies.....OMG!, lol!
Last edited by billhart22; 07-21-2009 at 08:29 AM.
7:30 E.S.T. Out of the gate is when stocks typically will fall or gain. They are at their most volatile state in the first hour and a half. Usually, they are more volatile towards the open and shake out with more time. This doesn't always apply, but I have found that if you want to buy or sell, that is the best time to get the price that you want. This is more of a rule with NYSE and NASDAQ stocks though. The rest of the day is unpredictable. In the last half hour is another time for sell-offs if they are going to happen.
This is not an absolute rule, but they are two time periods to look at.
I love maple bars, but don't eat sugar anymore. I am an organic freak vegetarian, not because of ideals, but just have changed my ways and my weight by 60 pounds.
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