SIRI Intraday Friday 7-17-09

[relmor2003]

We will have sub loses. There is no getting around that fact. It wount be as bad as last quarter, but there will be losses. The certified pre-owned channel will be some helpmut not as much as some think. There have been programs in place with certified pre-owned for quite some time. The free trial makes sense, but the take rate , logically speaking, will not be as good as with new cars.

It would be illogical to assume used car take rates would be higher.
They will loss subs, I agree. There is no way around it. Your right. Its just a bad math problem right now, thats all. But Q3, the math problem starts to go away finally, as bad auto sales are back to back to back now. Once it starts goign up again, the promo sub total will explode again. Why its not a good benchmark, and as we all know, the self pay is a much better look. Especially with sub retention(although I do realize auto sales slowing down of course affects self pay too, as the trickle down effect hits home, etc...)
But all there other metrics, Tyler, will be much improved. Could you focus on some of the positives coming for the quarter?

[lloyd Handwerker]

Quote from John.

"Someone must have set explosives under it before the tanker crashed into
it"

Was that a joke or what?

[relmor2003]

Quote from John.

"Someone must have set explosives under it before the tanker crashed into
it"

Was that a joke or what?

Yes, hes makign fun of me and my new girlfriend, Linda. Fan of Rosie!!

[lloyd Handwerker]

Thanks for the clarification. i just got back into town and havent been following the thread.

[SiriMonkey]

Did you hear about that fire on I-75 caused by a tanker. Man I did not think a fire could bring down a steel and concrete bridge. Someone must have set explosives under it before the tanker crashed into it.


Did you know they just replaced that bridge two years prior. I just cant believe fire made the beams warp to the extent it did to bring down that bridge, relmor says that is impossible.

Hi John,

Just got in from lunch and read the article. Amazing, and the most incredible
part was there were no deaths. I hate to drive by those tankers and this just reinforces that feeling. A few years back, can't recall were in Detroit, same thing happened. A tanker was going to fast around the curve on an overpass. The tanker went over, the driver jumped out and started to run
and the gasoline spill caught fire. He died. Luckly, no other deaths.

Enjoy your weekend John.

Julie

[terrymr]

http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Cov...)/4801847.html

[Atypical]

Been reading everyone's comments re siri for awhile and have found them interesting, informative and sometimes scary. Am long with a moderate amount and want to hold for an upside. Do not want a r/s. Been burned before. Agree with those that say the shorts will just move in and tank it again.

I do want to offer (because some are interested) what I feel is the best book on 9/11. It is about Guiliani and his handling of it and contains exhaustive info on technical aspects of the buildings collapse. Written by two N.Y. Times reporters. It's a must read.

Grand Illusion : the untold story of Rudy Giuliani and 9/11 / Wayne Barrett and Dan Collins.

[Sirius Roadkill]

It would be illogical to assume used car take rates would be higher.
They will loss subs, I agree. There is no way around it. Your right. Its just a bad math problem right now, thats all.

am not sure I follow your logic here?

why would you be so certain that certified pre-owned would lose subs?

are you extrapolating new oem to certified pre-owned??

[JohnnyIrishXM]

am not sure I follow your logic here?

why would you be so certain that certified pre-owned would lose subs?

are you extrapolating new oem to certified pre-owned??

He's referring to how many with free trial offer actually sign up as self paying subs(take rate)..was about 48% last quarter for new with a high of 53% before that,i believe those numbers are correct,could be off a few %..

He doesn't think Certified pre owned take rate will be as high as New OEM...
but i think it will be same or higher..

[Sirius Roadkill]

He's referring to how many with free trial offer actually sign up as self paying subs(take rate)..was about 48% last quarter for new with a high of 53% before that,i believe those numbers are correct,could be off a few %..

He doesn't think Certified pre owned take rate will be as high as New OEM...
but i think it will be same or higher..

Correct Irish . . . I understand what he is saying . . . I am just wondering what his supporting logic is for that position . . .

I agree with you . . . CPO vehicle sales volume I believe is actually up over '08; the penetration rate in the CPO market is higher than '08 I would think; and the CPO market is well targeted with the right consumer such as MB, BMW etc who traditionally have higher segmented take-rates anyway.

Now if Relmor is writing-off a decline in the CPO market to a general down-trend in discretionary spending . . . I might still argue that the higher penetration and sales volume in the CPO market will offset any natural drop-offs in "take" due to discretionary spending . . . the net effect still being "plus" subs from that channel.

anyway, here's two slightly dated news links that might be worth considering:

http://editorial.autos.msn.com/artic...mentid=1057419

http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/02/...ight-spot.html