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Thread: SIRI Intraday Wednesday 7-15-09

  1. #1
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    SIRI Intraday Wednesday 7-15-09

    This is total insanity, another HUGE terrestrial station down the drain.
    http://www.boston.com/business/ticke...chord_for.html

    Howard just talked about the death of another one of his former affiliate stations on Monday and now one of his former channels in one of the biggest markets (Boston) is down the drain. I am sure he will talk about this tomorrow.

    If WBCN can not survive, terrestrial radio as we once knew it is dead. 2 Years ago there were 3 rock stations in Boston.... one was consolidated into another and now WBCN is gone... we are down to 1 new rock station. INSANE! Before I switched to Sirius 5 years ago there were 5 rock stations programed on my cars radio... now there is only 1 left.

    If anyone else here is from mass you can attest to this madness for the other people around the country on these boards. Trust me guys, this is a real shocker. UPDATE: check out the number of comments pouring in on that article... its more than when they had a story about the H1N1 Pig Flu the day the news broke... that should give you an idea about how shocking this is.

    What is really interesting is "WBCN will become a Web-only operation available at www.wbcn.com." ?!?!? They will go off the air but continue online? How could they possibly sustain a following?
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  2. #2
    otone is offline
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    Charles, everything changes. Lots of people have called for the death of terr rad. I've never understood why it couldn't coexist with all the other forms. Tons of people love to hear their favorite "drive time" DJ's. Guess that has been slowly changing. The one Hawaii channel I listen to occassionally (well, not now, since I have Sirius in my car finally) fired almost all of it's DJ's and went to a feed out of Milwaukee, but they kept their morning DJ's and have a morning show before switching over.

    So, the question is what does all this mean for Sirius (and Slackdora). We've got all these high profile media guys involved with Sirius, with a huge jump on the competition. Will they take the necessary steps to stay ahead of the game and innovate into something really great?

  3. #3
    otone is offline
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    NASDAQ reimplementing de-listing rule

    I pulled Rel's post from yesterday:


    Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Everyone hear the good news yet?
    We will be given a delisting notice in Sept. if we dont comply. Rule will not be extended. NO ONE wants that. Bondholders, shorts, longs, insiders, NASDAQ, MM's, so we are all on one side of the trade now. Only a complete meltdown would prevent us from getting to $1 now.
    This is GREAT news. Im very excited. No one wins on the pink sheets. I didnt think they wouldnt get there by the end of the year anyway, but this just might guarantee it. But short term, who knows the effect.
    Now add in the uptick rule, coming back for sure. Wow. A double wammy of good luck.



    How did we go from this will be a very bad thing for us to this is now a great thing? Why are the shorts on the same side of the trade? If SIRI does get the notice, which they probably will, there is a whole nutha year before it could potentially happen, or SIRI does a RS.... Why wouldn't the MM's/shorts/whoever simply use that year to torture retailers for the next year? Let me say that I understand Rel's reasoning, but is it really likely?

    Does any of this even matter if the economy comes back a bit, car sales come back, Sirius comes out with online apps on the other mobile platforms, Sirius does a major revamping of their online and user experience to include social networking/Slackdora style personalization of music feeds.

  4. #4
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by otone View Post
    I pulled Rel's post from yesterday:


    Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Everyone hear the good news yet?
    We will be given a delisting notice in Sept. if we dont comply. Rule will not be extended. NO ONE wants that. Bondholders, shorts, longs, insiders, NASDAQ, MM's, so we are all on one side of the trade now. Only a complete meltdown would prevent us from getting to $1 now.
    This is GREAT news. Im very excited. No one wins on the pink sheets. I didnt think they wouldnt get there by the end of the year anyway, but this just might guarantee it. But short term, who knows the effect.
    Now add in the uptick rule, coming back for sure. Wow. A double wammy of good luck.



    How did we go from this will be a very bad thing for us to this is now a great thing? Why are the shorts on the same side of the trade? If SIRI does get the notice, which they probably will, there is a whole nutha year before it could potentially happen, or SIRI does a RS.... Why wouldn't the MM's/shorts/whoever simply use that year to torture retailers for the next year? Let me say that I understand Rel's reasoning, but is it really likely?

    Does any of this even matter if the economy comes back a bit, car sales come back, Sirius comes out with online apps on the other mobile platforms, Sirius does a major revamping of their online and user experience to include social networking/Slackdora style personalization of music feeds.
    I thought about it again. Im reversing my opinion on it being good news. Juries out. I have to think about it more. I will definately start something in motion though. If we cant clear $1 by the end of the year, then we had a crappy Q3, and I cant believe that would be possible. Im trading that it wont be bad. So i think they get there without the split. The shorts can come back later, might as well go long now. Perfect cover, especially if there is short term weakness.
    What I said above is true, but a R/S would solve it. So forget it.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 07-15-2009 at 02:27 AM.

  5. #5
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    I thought about it again. Im reversing my opinion on it being good news. Juries out. I have to think about it more. I will definately start something in motion though. If we cant clear $1 by the end of the year, then we had a crappy Q3, and I cant believe that would be possible. Im trading that it wont be bad. So i think they get there without the split. The shorts can come back later, might as well go long now. Perfect cover, especially if there is short term weakness.
    What I said above is true, but a R/S would solve it. So forget it.
    i think if it gets delisted it would go to the OTC:BB not the pink sheets. the difference between the 2, the bb's have minimum financial reporting requirements. the pinks have no financial reporting requirements. either way shorting IS allowed on both services.

    i dont think its getting delisted tho. we will see a R/S before delisting ever happens. that safety net was put into place in december. and extended in may.

    the only hope us longs(that dont want a R/S) have is to see if management will exhaust all appeals and try to organically raise the S/P. i wish they would give us a sign, but then again they dont wanna tank it either, in case Q2 is not great. boy, Q2 has become very important all of a sudden.

    what do we expect from Q2? lost subs for sure. higher EBITDA than expected? forget profit , i think thats still out the question. FCF positive a slight probability? increased revenue from internet streams, best of both, more synergies, too bad $2 royalties didnt go into effect. what else am i missing good or bad?

    Q3 is the gamechanger. that is where the full value of everything positive sirius has done will be realized for the first time. Q4 will be gravy. look for a profit next year.

    if Q2 CC results in a bearish sentiment, i will love any buys once the dust settles . i believe Q3 CC is where SIRI has the shot to get respect. we need to get that $1 hurdle out of the way and that will be imo the time period for it to happen.


    its all up to management and how they handle the delisting appeals. thoughts anyone?

  6. #6
    bassmaster is offline
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    before anyone goes crazy about the delisting prospects. our only negative is we wont know what management will try to do (they might give us a clue during Q2CC). will they exhaust appeals or hurry for a r/s? i wont assume either way because i cant speculate what theyre thinking. i need facts on that.

    i wont speculate on mm's pumping this to $1 because i cant predict the future. but i do hope relmor is right that the mm's dont want a delisting and they will for a period of time push to this to the dollar mark.

    the huge positive is we still have plenty of time for this to go up on its own .

    the million dollar question is does management want to use the time bank???


    p.s. what is the new deadline for the R/S that was voted at the last meeting?

    let the debate begin. i wish the legend homer comes out of retirement and posts some opinions on this.
    Last edited by bassmaster; 07-15-2009 at 03:23 AM.

  7. #7
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    i think if it gets delisted it would go to the OTC:BB not the pink sheets. the difference between the 2, the bb's have minimum financial reporting requirements. the pinks have no financial reporting requirements. either way shorting IS allowed on both services.

    i dont think its getting delisted tho. we will see a R/S before delisting ever happens. that safety net was put into place in december. and extended in may.

    the only hope us longs(that dont want a R/S) have is to see if management will exhaust all appeals and try to organically raise the S/P. i wish they would give us a sign, but then again they dont wanna tank it either, in case Q2 is not great. boy, Q2 has become very important all of a sudden.

    what do we expect from Q2? lost subs for sure. higher EBITDA than expected? forget profit , i think thats still out the question. FCF positive a slight probability? increased revenue from internet streams, best of both, more synergies, too bad $2 royalties didnt go into effect. what else am i missing good or bad?

    Q3 is the gamechanger. that is where the full value of everything positive sirius has done will be realized for the first time. Q4 will be gravy. look for a profit next year.

    if Q2 CC results in a bearish sentiment, i will love any buys once the dust settles . i believe Q3 CC is where SIRI has the shot to get respect. we need to get that $1 hurdle out of the way and that will be imo the time period for it to happen.


    its all up to management and how they handle the delisting appeals. thoughts anyone?
    Yes, but volume would drop on the OTC.BB and it is much harder to short and cover on low volume. Especially when news hits that would make SiriusXM profitable. The stock not being traded on the NASDAQ would remove the attention the stock gets, that shorts love to short into. They might force the R/S, knowing Siriusxm wont delist vs. not use it. I suppose now we will know soon enough. And I dont think that system allows shorting of stocks with the same rules that NASDAQ usues. Im going to check. Which brings to question? If the shorts love the number of shares, why force them to reduce them? Maybe that is the key to the problem. Will the shorts let SiriusXM meet the $1 requirement, so they WONT HAVE to R/S.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 07-15-2009 at 08:53 AM.

  8. #8
    imromo24 is offline
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    The original was decemberish and the new vote was to extend it to Juneish 2010

  9. #9
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Yes, but volume would drop on the OTC.BB and it is much harder to short and cover on low volume. Especially when news hits that would make SiriusXM profitable. The stock not being traded on the NASDAQ would remove the attention the stock gets, that shorts love to short into. They might force the R/S, knowing Siriusxm wont delist vs. not use it. I suppose now we will know soon enough. And I dont think that system allows shorting of stocks with the same rules that NASDAQ usues. Im going to check.


    It makes it easy to track naked shorting. Basically they would not be able to get away with what they have been doing. All that being said there is noway the investors shorting the stock think for one second that SIRIXM would not do everything possible to stay on the NASDAQ. Therefore it will not change the way they short for one second form now til then. The only thing that will change that is the refinancing of debt they hold. Not that that will do anything more then just change the players, the game will remain the same. The only way to get the amount of stock held short is to acually pay off the debt. The fact is, no matter how well they do the investors in the bonds will always hedge their investment in those bonds.

  10. #10
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    The original was decemberish and the new vote was to extend it to Juneish 2010

    I think the time frame that you would see a reverse split would be between the end of March 2010 and the beginning of May. Just a personal guess from what I have seen other companies do in the same situation.


    P.S. That is if the PPS is not over a dollar already, which with what has happened with the price increases I think is very possible. Just a feeeling but I find it hard to believe any company that has just turned FCF positive and on the cusp if not already GAAP profitable will not be worth over 6 billion with 2.8+ billion in revenue.
    Last edited by john; 07-15-2009 at 09:07 AM.

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