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Thread: SIRI Intraday Wednesday 7-15-09

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  1. #1
    SiriusBuzz is online now
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    SIRI Intraday Wednesday 7-15-09

    This is total insanity, another HUGE terrestrial station down the drain.
    http://www.boston.com/business/ticke...chord_for.html

    Howard just talked about the death of another one of his former affiliate stations on Monday and now one of his former channels in one of the biggest markets (Boston) is down the drain. I am sure he will talk about this tomorrow.

    If WBCN can not survive, terrestrial radio as we once knew it is dead. 2 Years ago there were 3 rock stations in Boston.... one was consolidated into another and now WBCN is gone... we are down to 1 new rock station. INSANE! Before I switched to Sirius 5 years ago there were 5 rock stations programed on my cars radio... now there is only 1 left.

    If anyone else here is from mass you can attest to this madness for the other people around the country on these boards. Trust me guys, this is a real shocker. UPDATE: check out the number of comments pouring in on that article... its more than when they had a story about the H1N1 Pig Flu the day the news broke... that should give you an idea about how shocking this is.

    What is really interesting is "WBCN will become a Web-only operation available at www.wbcn.com." ?!?!? They will go off the air but continue online? How could they possibly sustain a following?
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  2. #2
    otone is offline
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    Charles, everything changes. Lots of people have called for the death of terr rad. I've never understood why it couldn't coexist with all the other forms. Tons of people love to hear their favorite "drive time" DJ's. Guess that has been slowly changing. The one Hawaii channel I listen to occassionally (well, not now, since I have Sirius in my car finally) fired almost all of it's DJ's and went to a feed out of Milwaukee, but they kept their morning DJ's and have a morning show before switching over.

    So, the question is what does all this mean for Sirius (and Slackdora). We've got all these high profile media guys involved with Sirius, with a huge jump on the competition. Will they take the necessary steps to stay ahead of the game and innovate into something really great?

  3. #3
    otone is offline
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    NASDAQ reimplementing de-listing rule

    I pulled Rel's post from yesterday:


    Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Everyone hear the good news yet?
    We will be given a delisting notice in Sept. if we dont comply. Rule will not be extended. NO ONE wants that. Bondholders, shorts, longs, insiders, NASDAQ, MM's, so we are all on one side of the trade now. Only a complete meltdown would prevent us from getting to $1 now.
    This is GREAT news. Im very excited. No one wins on the pink sheets. I didnt think they wouldnt get there by the end of the year anyway, but this just might guarantee it. But short term, who knows the effect.
    Now add in the uptick rule, coming back for sure. Wow. A double wammy of good luck.



    How did we go from this will be a very bad thing for us to this is now a great thing? Why are the shorts on the same side of the trade? If SIRI does get the notice, which they probably will, there is a whole nutha year before it could potentially happen, or SIRI does a RS.... Why wouldn't the MM's/shorts/whoever simply use that year to torture retailers for the next year? Let me say that I understand Rel's reasoning, but is it really likely?

    Does any of this even matter if the economy comes back a bit, car sales come back, Sirius comes out with online apps on the other mobile platforms, Sirius does a major revamping of their online and user experience to include social networking/Slackdora style personalization of music feeds.

  4. #4
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by otone View Post
    I pulled Rel's post from yesterday:


    Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Everyone hear the good news yet?
    We will be given a delisting notice in Sept. if we dont comply. Rule will not be extended. NO ONE wants that. Bondholders, shorts, longs, insiders, NASDAQ, MM's, so we are all on one side of the trade now. Only a complete meltdown would prevent us from getting to $1 now.
    This is GREAT news. Im very excited. No one wins on the pink sheets. I didnt think they wouldnt get there by the end of the year anyway, but this just might guarantee it. But short term, who knows the effect.
    Now add in the uptick rule, coming back for sure. Wow. A double wammy of good luck.



    How did we go from this will be a very bad thing for us to this is now a great thing? Why are the shorts on the same side of the trade? If SIRI does get the notice, which they probably will, there is a whole nutha year before it could potentially happen, or SIRI does a RS.... Why wouldn't the MM's/shorts/whoever simply use that year to torture retailers for the next year? Let me say that I understand Rel's reasoning, but is it really likely?

    Does any of this even matter if the economy comes back a bit, car sales come back, Sirius comes out with online apps on the other mobile platforms, Sirius does a major revamping of their online and user experience to include social networking/Slackdora style personalization of music feeds.
    I thought about it again. Im reversing my opinion on it being good news. Juries out. I have to think about it more. I will definately start something in motion though. If we cant clear $1 by the end of the year, then we had a crappy Q3, and I cant believe that would be possible. Im trading that it wont be bad. So i think they get there without the split. The shorts can come back later, might as well go long now. Perfect cover, especially if there is short term weakness.
    What I said above is true, but a R/S would solve it. So forget it.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 07-15-2009 at 02:27 AM.

  5. #5
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    I thought about it again. Im reversing my opinion on it being good news. Juries out. I have to think about it more. I will definately start something in motion though. If we cant clear $1 by the end of the year, then we had a crappy Q3, and I cant believe that would be possible. Im trading that it wont be bad. So i think they get there without the split. The shorts can come back later, might as well go long now. Perfect cover, especially if there is short term weakness.
    What I said above is true, but a R/S would solve it. So forget it.
    i think if it gets delisted it would go to the OTC:BB not the pink sheets. the difference between the 2, the bb's have minimum financial reporting requirements. the pinks have no financial reporting requirements. either way shorting IS allowed on both services.

    i dont think its getting delisted tho. we will see a R/S before delisting ever happens. that safety net was put into place in december. and extended in may.

    the only hope us longs(that dont want a R/S) have is to see if management will exhaust all appeals and try to organically raise the S/P. i wish they would give us a sign, but then again they dont wanna tank it either, in case Q2 is not great. boy, Q2 has become very important all of a sudden.

    what do we expect from Q2? lost subs for sure. higher EBITDA than expected? forget profit , i think thats still out the question. FCF positive a slight probability? increased revenue from internet streams, best of both, more synergies, too bad $2 royalties didnt go into effect. what else am i missing good or bad?

    Q3 is the gamechanger. that is where the full value of everything positive sirius has done will be realized for the first time. Q4 will be gravy. look for a profit next year.

    if Q2 CC results in a bearish sentiment, i will love any buys once the dust settles . i believe Q3 CC is where SIRI has the shot to get respect. we need to get that $1 hurdle out of the way and that will be imo the time period for it to happen.


    its all up to management and how they handle the delisting appeals. thoughts anyone?

  6. #6
    bassmaster is offline
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    before anyone goes crazy about the delisting prospects. our only negative is we wont know what management will try to do (they might give us a clue during Q2CC). will they exhaust appeals or hurry for a r/s? i wont assume either way because i cant speculate what theyre thinking. i need facts on that.

    i wont speculate on mm's pumping this to $1 because i cant predict the future. but i do hope relmor is right that the mm's dont want a delisting and they will for a period of time push to this to the dollar mark.

    the huge positive is we still have plenty of time for this to go up on its own .

    the million dollar question is does management want to use the time bank???


    p.s. what is the new deadline for the R/S that was voted at the last meeting?

    let the debate begin. i wish the legend homer comes out of retirement and posts some opinions on this.
    Last edited by bassmaster; 07-15-2009 at 03:23 AM.

  7. #7
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    i think if it gets delisted it would go to the OTC:BB not the pink sheets. the difference between the 2, the bb's have minimum financial reporting requirements. the pinks have no financial reporting requirements. either way shorting IS allowed on both services.

    i dont think its getting delisted tho. we will see a R/S before delisting ever happens. that safety net was put into place in december. and extended in may.

    the only hope us longs(that dont want a R/S) have is to see if management will exhaust all appeals and try to organically raise the S/P. i wish they would give us a sign, but then again they dont wanna tank it either, in case Q2 is not great. boy, Q2 has become very important all of a sudden.

    what do we expect from Q2? lost subs for sure. higher EBITDA than expected? forget profit , i think thats still out the question. FCF positive a slight probability? increased revenue from internet streams, best of both, more synergies, too bad $2 royalties didnt go into effect. what else am i missing good or bad?

    Q3 is the gamechanger. that is where the full value of everything positive sirius has done will be realized for the first time. Q4 will be gravy. look for a profit next year.

    if Q2 CC results in a bearish sentiment, i will love any buys once the dust settles . i believe Q3 CC is where SIRI has the shot to get respect. we need to get that $1 hurdle out of the way and that will be imo the time period for it to happen.


    its all up to management and how they handle the delisting appeals. thoughts anyone?
    Yes, but volume would drop on the OTC.BB and it is much harder to short and cover on low volume. Especially when news hits that would make SiriusXM profitable. The stock not being traded on the NASDAQ would remove the attention the stock gets, that shorts love to short into. They might force the R/S, knowing Siriusxm wont delist vs. not use it. I suppose now we will know soon enough. And I dont think that system allows shorting of stocks with the same rules that NASDAQ usues. Im going to check. Which brings to question? If the shorts love the number of shares, why force them to reduce them? Maybe that is the key to the problem. Will the shorts let SiriusXM meet the $1 requirement, so they WONT HAVE to R/S.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 07-15-2009 at 08:53 AM.

  8. #8
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    This is total insanity, another HUGE terrestrial station down the drain.
    http://www.boston.com/business/ticke...chord_for.html

    Howard just talked about the death of another one of his former affiliate stations on Monday and now one of his former channels in one of the biggest markets (Boston) is down the drain. I am sure he will talk about this tomorrow.

    If WBCN can not survive, terrestrial radio as we once knew it is dead. 2 Years ago there were 3 rock stations in Boston.... one was consolidated into another and now WBCN is gone... we are down to 1 new rock station. INSANE! Before I switched to Sirius 5 years ago there were 5 rock stations programed on my cars radio... now there is only 1 left.

    If anyone else here is from mass you can attest to this madness for the other people around the country on these boards. Trust me guys, this is a real shocker. UPDATE: check out the number of comments pouring in on that article... its more than when they had a story about the H1N1 Pig Flu the day the news broke... that should give you an idea about how shocking this is.

    What is really interesting is "WBCN will become a Web-only operation available at www.wbcn.com." ?!?!? They will go off the air but continue online? How could they possibly sustain a following?


    I love it, anytime terrestrial lessens their choice it is good for SIRIXM. Lets face it that and commercial free is why people got into satellite radio in the first place.

  9. #9
    imromo24 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I love it, anytime terrestrial lessens their choice it is good for SIRIXM. Lets face it that and commercial free is why people got into satellite radio in the first place.
    I hate to see someone else do worse, but Terra radio burned me something bad when they started watering everything down and I have 5 channels of commercials on my way to work (i only have a 15minute drive)

    This is exactly the scenario that we had in mind from the beginning and it is all working out perfectly. SXM will have its run for the next 10 years as the mainstay majority in the Automobile and will develop their other offerings (phones, wifi, internet)

    AM is down to a couple channels, FM is getting smaller....

    Also, here is what SXM is...they are the $hit filter for bad and poorly produced "radio/music" Sure you can surf the net for free music, free radio etc, but in the end if you are busy you just want to turn to a trusted source, something that will provide you the best in each category. (some may argue with this but trust me, once the merger settles they will surface as the leader in all categories)

    Sirius XM rules because it is live (talk shows, news, dj's shows, art/entertainment being generated on the spot given to you right as its made)...I can say this a million times and I don't think most people understand what that means...WHAT IS FRESHER THAN LIVE??? And its the best content available...LIVE.

    Now if they would just put a satellite over canada pointing south so I can get a signal from the north and south with no dead spots it would win outright for portables.
    Last edited by imromo24; 07-15-2009 at 09:46 AM.

  10. #10
    john is offline
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    imromo24, I just love it. I dont think most to including myself thought the shit would hit the fan for terrestrial as fast as it has. Now while I have said before that I think terresrtrial will almost always be around just in a form of something like AM is today, I never thought it would start happening at the pace it seems to be. With each day the chances of someone like Stern ever going back to terrestrail slips that much more away. This is the reason I got invested in SIRI and XMSR in the first place.




    P.S. people like choice and the reason Pandora and alike will never be that much competition to something like SIRIXM. I mean hell if you want to worry then at least worry about something in the same ball park like internet radio. While they have their own problems (alot of the same ones that terrestrial has) with trying to compete with SIRIXM. they are at least in the same ball park.
    Last edited by john; 07-15-2009 at 10:15 AM.

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