Do you really think that the DOW and the S&P will hold? I don't think so, personally. Take a look at the BDI and the boats. They are a clear indicator of what is to come. People are starting to say screw all of this government spending according to the polls. I personally think that it could get a hell of a lot worse, before it gets better. The U.S. is in serious trouble with all this stimulus and now they want to addend the current plan with a stimulus 2.0 when they have only spent 10% of the current plan. Good God!
I know that your are an entrepeneur, like myself. Where do we benefit from trading with trading tax and capital gains tax? We have to make 40% more just to make a profit. A lot of investors and traders are going to take it in the shorts for trying to get ahead when tax time comes. If you lost 60K, with a tax deduction of three thousand dollars a year, it would take 20 years to re-coup. Only three grand a year can be declared. Think really hard, people, about that fact. The wash rule says that when you declare a loss with a particular stock, you must wait 30 days from the date of sale to get back in and to start re-playing that stock. The best time to take a loss is at the end of the year. Depending on how much you have lost will determine how many years it will take to wash away at 3K per year.
I would be really cautious, myself, until the market gives a clear indication of where it is at.
I am just going to be really leery with NASDAQ and NYSE stocks. I can make more money with pennies right now. The have great leverage, but are very risky. When, and if, the market settles one direction or the other, then I will get back in.
If I were into options and swing trading, that would be another thing, however, I am not a shorter. I know that you short so all is good and well. I also know that you do options, so you are well geared.
Just my thoughts.....thinking out loud..
Bill
Last edited by billhart22; 07-11-2009 at 01:44 AM.
Man, you make me feel dumb. Your sooo right, and I know this rule like the back of my hand. Its just like I said, CNBC NEVER pumped siriusxm before, so I wanted to see what happened. Just like everything they pump, it tanks. LOL
LOL
I usually do the opposite of what they say. Made a nice chunck on DRYS on a sell recommendation from the street.com.
For me to violate that rule, goes against my fiber of my being!!!
My fault though. I ignored the 1st sell signal(break on .45, intraday), but listened to the second one(close under .44).
relmor, I just read this and thought of you.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20090...conomythanours
Im glad you think of me. LOL
The article doesnt use my metric though. Percentage of trade deficit , vs. GPD output. And there government spending deficit.
They win these two categories hands down, of any major country. Sure, Bangladesh probably is in worse shape your right. And Nepal. Some villages in Nepal use apricot seeds(or is it peach? I forget) and a currency. So......
There you go...
Id rather be a country full of manufacturing and cheap labor than where we are today. We used to be that John. Why we got so powerful. Now our wages are expensive, our health care is out of control, and our government spends more than it could ever possible hope to take in.
Dont get me wrong, I love my country, and my fellow countrymen. Still no place Id rather live. Ironically as much as our freedoms here have regressed, its still above the curve for the world, and can still have an opinion without feeling like I could get arrested at any moment. These things I love about my country. Our technology infrastructure is second to none. Our communications arrays are excellent. Our infrastructure is getting bad, but not hopeless. Our energy sources are outdated and falling further behind every day.
We need about 20 more Nuclear plants, solar energy, and wind, geothermal, and hydroelectric energy sources to pick up a larger block of our needs. Soon. If we can become energy independent, or at least close, our trade imbalance becomes manageable, and we as consumers can spend more on other things than running our homes, our cars, and our business's.
Last edited by relmor2003; 07-12-2009 at 02:34 PM.
relmor, I already told you why the trade deficit is out of wack and why in todays world it cannot be taken as a end all be all. As stated before it is the same reason that people that buy a Toyota and say it is ok because they have a few factories here are wrong because all the profits go back to the country of the companys origin. The labor is not where the profit is. Do you really think that all the cars that Toyota sells only covers the parts and labor or is there profit to them. Well where does that profit go? Really we all know where it goes, right back to Japan. Here is a example; Matel has China build 1 million barbie dolls, 750,000 come to America. That 750,000 dolls gets included in the trade deficit what is not included in the trade deficit is all the profit that comes back to Matel located in the USA.
relmor you need to look at your history if the trade deficit over the years was added up we would have been bankrupt long long ago. You see the trade deficit is not as simple as 1+1=2, you have to through in an anti-derivative of an intergal and then you have how the true trade deficit works.
P.S. I hope your happy you now got me using calculus terms, thanks, THANKS ALOT.
Ah, Calculus on my mind.
A derivative monitors the rate of change of a function; whilst integration shows the area under the curve of a function. How does one anti derive? Then integrate? Fibonacci sequencing?