SIRI Intraday Thursday 07-09-09

[otone]

IMO, the psychological fallout from a RS far outweigh the illusion of a stock being suddenly worth more than it is. Understand that there is a much greater profit to be shorted from 15.00 than there is from .40. Until Sirius has an undeniable and proven positive outlook verified by hard facts, there is nothing that will ease the erratic behavior of the SP. It will continue to be the toy of the MM's and institutions and whatever else that has been in control. A reverse split before absolute stability would undeniably be absolute suicide as I can immagine numerous sareholders would abandon their beloved Sirius in droves.

bdp, thanks. And again, I'm only talking about doing this after the company is showing some stability and good growth going forward, but before they must do it.

I do have a question though. Can you show me how there is more profit to be made shorting from 15.00 that from .40. To keep it oranges to oranges, let say a 1 for 20 split at a initial price of .80 (because I think it would be around that with a couple good Q's behind us. I don't short and never thought about it, but can you show me the math that shows there is more profit to be made at 16.00 than .80?

So lets say someone can short:
200,000 shares at .80cents
10000 at 16.00

How can someone realize more profit at 16.00 than .80 cents?

[bassmaster]

bdp, thanks. And again, I'm only talking about doing this after the company is showing some stability and good growth going forward, but before they must do it.

I do have a question though. Can you show me how there is more profit to be made shorting from 15.00 that from .40. To keep it oranges to oranges, let say a 1 for 20 split at a initial price of .80 (because I think it would be around that with a couple good Q's behind us. I don't short and never thought about it, but can you show me the math that shows there is more profit to be made at 16.00 than .80?

So lets say someone can short:
200,000 shares at .80cents
10000 at 16.00

How can someone realize more profit at 16.00 than .80 cents?

if you mean by a couple of good Q's , you mean FCF +. i personally believe the stock price would be worth around 1.50 roughly if thats the case. Q2 will have negative subs, but bottom line will look more healthy. we still wont get the huge jump in price, but if we do i'll be pleasantly suprised. we'll need Q3 and Q4 , possibly first 2 Q's of next year to have some added stock price value and stability.

i dont think we have any debt due next year, someone correct me if im wrong. so we have over a year to build our COH, improve our metrics and build on our fundamentals. all that can grow our shareholder value naturally.

now if anyone is looking to artificially inflate the stock price then how about being more transparent with the street? give some guidance during the quarter. release PR's related to revenue, iphone app conversions, dispute negative bias from the media, or anything else that has positive effects on the s/p. but that is not what mel likes to do, so we have to wait till Q CC for all the info.

FYI, retailers cant short a stock under $5 so there would be more shorting (if the 2014 lent shares are still out) than now with a stock price of $16.

my whole point is by the time we get to 1.50 or 2.00 w/e the target price may be, why would we need to reverse split? R/S discussions always paint a negative tone on a company. for good reason too, as i have said before it is a LOSING move. if you were to buy 1 share of every single company that did a R/S , you would be down ALOT.

for disclosure: if this company ever announces a r/s , i am selling all my shares. there is too much evidence that proves r/s ruin shareholder value.

[S50Fan]

Let me tell ya about a stock I followed that did a RS a few years back. It was Priceline (PCLN). After the 911 scare peeps were kinda scared of flying for awhile and the stock price sucked accordingly. It was around the $2 range or so if I remember correctly.

Then, when the bull market started again in what, 2003?, PCLN started to climb and made it to the $4 range, and there it did a 1-6 RS. The stock started trading after that at $24/share I think it was.

Of course, like most stocks that do a RS, it quickly tanked about 30% lol . But, after it tanked investors saw it's true value at $16/share and started buying it bigtime. And from then on it was up. It had reached profitability and started to climb. Even with all the bad economy crap, this stock has steadily climbed to over $100/share! Look at this http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=pcln,P

So, the lesson being. When SIRI can ever get it's shit together and make some big money, even if it does a RS it won't matter in the long term of things. If it tanks after a RS, that's when peeps should be accumilating like madmen.

Btw, I don't own any PCLN anymore. I did waaay back then but got out years ago. Yeah I know, I know, look at it now. Anyway, that's just my take on SIRI and a RS down the road, if it does do one. Sometimes it ain't all bad after a RS, you just gotta wait it out, kinda like PCLN.

[otone]

S50, that's kind of what I'm thinking would happen with SIRI. 30% swing??? BFD We've been seeing 30,40,50,percent swings the past few months. If we lose some investors along the way, then so be it. No offense intended to anyone here.

I understand it is an upsetting topic, but I need to understand it before I'm going to get worried about it. I think things are going to be looking pretty good in a couple of Q's and if it looks like MM's are going to try some shenanigans, then I'd rather SIRI do it on their terms then the MM's terms.

I'll drop it for now.

[bassmaster]

S50, that's kind of what I'm thinking would happen with SIRI. 30% swing??? BFD We've been seeing 30,40,50,percent swings the past few months. If we lose some investors along the way, then so be it. No offense intended to anyone here.

I understand it is an upsetting topic, but I need to understand it before I'm going to get worried about it. I think things are going to be looking pretty good in a couple of Q's and if it looks like MM's are going to try some shenanigans, then I'd rather SIRI do it on their terms then the MM's terms.

I'll drop it for now.

dude youre not offending me or anyone else, you dont have to drop the topic this aint a forum thats nazi controlled and free speech is disallowed. you speak your opinion. we can agree to disagree.

if we are forced to do a r/s , then yes it must be done in strength.

here is a fool article that bm used to back his claim up that we need to do a r/s now.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...se-splits.aspx

those are 3 or 4 examples of where r/s were successful.

my opinion is there are 3 or 4 that worked, but all the rest havent and there are countless. so basically the odds are astronomical. if a stock cant get its price up organically, then it is doomed by artificially inflating it.

the best option for stock holders who want less volume is the company buying back shares. but we also have our hands tied as far as stock buy backs. our notes specifically state NO STOCK BUY BACKS.

so IMO, best strategy for this company is to continue to clean its financials, improve metrics, build on fundamentals and increase its subscriber base. while those factors improve so will our stock price.

dont drink the kool aid and believe that our stock is going down because theres too many shares. its just another excuse from day traders who are on the wrong side of most of their trades.

[otone]

bass, no worries. I just don't have anything else to add to what I've said.. and I'm not trying to stir up any feces.

another one to add to the success stories at the time was Ericsson. Of course they did it into strength as well.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

why would any1 listen to brandon these days? twenties is he kidding? look i sold i only own a 1000 now that i forget i actually have but i still do, but even though i sold im not going to then bash, i think long run its still a great buy, i just needed to free some cash and got lucky with some other investments so i was able to unload some and take a quick step back, who knows what siri is going to do, its obvious when its going down or when its going up but its not obviious when that trend will suddenly reverse. for all we know .39 could be the bottom, i sold at .41 and im lucky the mm's havnt pulled any quick changes and ran it up cause they could at any moment. its tricky with the r/s and honestly i dont trust siri mangement enough right now to pull it off, first off there is no reason to do more than a 10-1 but it looks like they have authorized at least 20-1, plus the timing has to be brilliant, like time it with stern coming to iphone or something else like paying off all debt. it cant be tiddly news has to be really really good news that brings out the buyers big time.

[TSavery]

dude youre not offending me or anyone else, you dont have to drop the topic this aint a forum thats nazi controlled and free speech is disallowed. you speak your opinion. we can agree to disagree.

if we are forced to do a r/s , then yes it must be done in strength.

here is a fool article that bm used to back his claim up that we need to do a r/s now.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...se-splits.aspx

those are 3 or 4 examples of where r/s were successful.

my opinion is there are 3 or 4 that worked, but all the rest havent and there are countless. so basically the odds are astronomical. if a stock cant get its price up organically, then it is doomed by artificially inflating it.

the best option for stock holders who want less volume is the company buying back shares. but we also have our hands tied as far as stock buy backs. our notes specifically state NO STOCK BUY BACKS.

so IMO, best strategy for this company is to continue to clean its financials, improve metrics, build on fundamentals and increase its subscriber base. while those factors improve so will our stock price.

dont drink the kool aid and believe that our stock is going down because theres too many shares. its just another excuse from day traders who are on the wrong side of most of their trades.

A reverse split now is pure danger no matter how you look at it. Mel has already stated that he will only use it if he has to. If he were to do it now, the street would assume it is because of weakness, and pounce all over it.

The float is very big, but that is not what keeps the price where it is. The fact that the company has not yet made money is what the problem is. Reverse splits when a company is strong financially can lead to success, but it is still rare. SIRI should stick to their guns, and only implement it if they have to. If it gets to that point, the stock will take a beating any way.

People that want a reverse split now are those that are out of the equity. They want to see the shakeout and get back after the dust settles. The problem is that some of these people will go long again this week because they can't stay away from the stock. Then their mantra will change. They wont admit it, but their tune always takes on a new melody depending on whether they are in or out. These types are a dime a dozen.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

"some" of these people lol, we all know who your talking about, and what he is doing is flat out wrong.

[relmor2003]

the traders at the waves have gotten real negative . you know what that means!! BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hey rel, be tougher on bm , im starting to think your getting soft...calling for a reverse split is SUICIDE. you can count on one hand the successful ones. i liked his point about siri being ranked 140th , well its only a couple of hundred mill higher than todays aig. siri was worth well below aig when they did the RS.then he says we're on top of the short list cause we have 7bill shares outstanding. EXCUSE ME I DIDNT KNOW THE FACT WE HAD LENT 250MM shares for the 2014 bonds had nothing to do with us being at the top of the list.. and how convenient he gets so ultra neg AFTER he posts that he sold a position....LMFAO, WHAT A FKN JOKE.

Like beating a dead horse with him on this issue. I think he wants the margin. And to write covered calls.