Thanks,
Keysmark
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Good Morning everyone and Happy Birthday Charles and Otone!!!!
SXM is listing a little here and until 2Q report or any pre-reporting news or leaks,we will probably just hang out in the .35 to .45 range..
Or until Retail sellers dry up and the Threat of an R/S is definitely affecting buyers here,as why would you buy a share that could be worth 1/10th or
1/20th of todays value..Would you buy a share today for $4 or $8 ?
If we see 3Q's in arow like i think we are,Yes i would buy a share,but we need 2 more Q's first..JMHO
Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 07-09-2009 at 09:08 AM.
The easy way: calculate book value and add perception (basically look at future earnings and figure out if the company worths more of book value or not). The actual difference of currrent pps-book value = perception value.Originally Posted by imromo24
Otone, Someone can do real numbers but i think if you take the assets minus the debt and add revenue plus potential that it actually puts us over .40 per share of value, hence the .70 short term and .90 long term estimates released by the analysts recently. (long term i think was even higher really)
Congrats! Same experiences here with the XMP3, love it. Recording function is invaluable and color screen and seeing whats playing on other channels is great too.
I see "Research Team" upgraded us from Reduce to Hold. Street.com is the only one still leaving us at SELL.
Happy birthday Charles and Otone.
Generally what we trade is the perception value (have you heard of greed and fear ?), the book value remains constant for at least 3 months.
Now, there are two perceptions these days. The overall stock market perception and the individual stock perception. Look at the stock BETA and see how much the market perception will affect the individual stock.
So, these days what is the market perception ? Bearish. It will affect the pps according to its BETA. There are talks of slow recovery.
What is SIRI's perception ? Not good but will live with rough bumps.
Tell me what is the difference between DNDN which has a book value of about less than $1.00 USD and a pps of about $25.00 and SIRI. I know, they are both in diferent industries, hahah.... The difference is perception, DNDN just got approved by the FDA their prostate cancer vaccine and potential sales in 2010 are of about 1 billion. That is perception. And that is why SIRI has traded between 0.35 and 0.45.
One more thing, remember when BK was inminent ? What was SIRI's lowest pps? the answer is below:
Book value = Equity/Shares outstanding = ? (I am lazy, can someone calculate this ? it used to be 15 mil / 4 bill but that has changed)
Last edited by Siriusowner; 07-09-2009 at 09:13 AM.
Why are we not sitting at book value ? The answer is: there are some potential earnings in the future for this issue. That potential is diffcult to evaluate, that is why analysts have modeling software, that is why they come up with target prices, etc ...
It is interesting to see how everyone has everything figured out. As it has always been for me with this stock, gut instinct almost always seems to be the most accurate predictor of price swings. I pay very little attention to charts and numbers. It seems that the mm's want you to over analyze Sirius to make it easier to pull the rug. I can't tell you how many times I personally was sure the stock would increase or decline, and sure enough, it went the other way. That is why I stopped day trading Sirius and I just sit on my shares like money in the bank.
In a few simple words,The company gives no guidance currently and they are the experts on SXM(SiriusXM) and so no analysts are either..This is why next 2Q's make or break this company's perception and SP going forward..
Good point irish. I think sometimes we forget they still arent giving guidance, and the street hates that. They assume the worst usually, until 3-4 days prior, then you will get a rush of enthusiasm, as people dont want to be without shares going into the call. But weak hands they have, very weak hands.
hey Tyler . . who does your hair?
Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 10-03-2009 at 12:19 AM.
Very soon we will start to see the 52 week high start its plummet, a quick check showed July 29th as $1.50ish...come september october we should be hitting 52 week highs.
there go the .40's - my bid in at .36
maybe .35 is better.
Last edited by sxminvestor; 07-09-2009 at 10:07 AM.
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