First off,with the new revenue streams coming fast and furius,it is hard to exstrapulate numbers on EPS positive as of right now without seeing 1 full Q of reported REV..But take an educated guess for you here.
1.The royalty pass on will add $140 million to bottom line in 2009
(july29th till Dec 31 2009 )$2 per month for 14.5Mil subs=$140m
For 2010 it is $350m to bottom line with todays sub numbers(no additions of subs)
So right there EBITDA is raised to more than $500m...for 2009(2010=well over $1billion to me)
2.Best of Rev for 700k subs as of 1Q cc for rest of year and any we add to will also increase EBITDA..
3.$2.99 on line fee implemented end of 1Q(no numbers yet)but 3Q's of rev from that.(didn't impact 1Q rev)
4.No appreciable debt due until 2011,2009 was pushed back and Dec bonds will be taken care of with the final $100m loan from Liberty.
Capex for next sat launch was pushed back to 2010,But SXM has right to extend it out further or cancel it.This Sat launch is paid for already.
The credit facility due is 4 payments which 1 was paid in May this year and rest is accounted for already=$175m with final next may 2010..
5.For 2Q i'm looking for .01 to .03 EPS minus Adj..Last Q was -(.01) with -(.07) with Liberty Adj.
The rest of 2009 (3Q and 4Q) looking for Real .08 EPS total...
6.Now 2010 is the Gift from Mel to us share holders,I'm conservatively expecting (get ready) plus $1 billion profit for the year,of course all the IF's being taken into account,SATS crash and all that...
Notice I Didn't even mention I-Phone,that is the wildcard..
If you read the Annual report,the Liberty deal was done to give SXM 2 years of basically debt free to get their house in order and show a huge profit to pay off existing debt and refi what they can't ,further out at better prices.
It was Mel's and Malone's master plan and in my opion it is working great.
Chew on that for awhile..
P.S Thanksgiving will be a very goor time for all of us at SXM shareholder land,
With 3Q report CC in Nov. with great guidance in OEM,EBITDA and Positive EPS(first time) given this stock will soar...
Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 06-21-2009 at 10:57 AM. Reason: correction on number of subs,By John
I gave a low ball estimate, Irish. If they book profits, they will be able to refi those loans due in 2011/2014 hedge too hopefully. This would allow them to sell shares or exchange debt for equity, refi the rest, and they are no where near BK, even if they book only 100 million in profits. Banks just want to see positive numbers. And growth potential, and and industry they feel can make the payments(not to mention Malone as a safety net). Making huge profits in 2010 is a fine goal, and go for it but they should be more concerned with lowering their debt payments, and getting their stock price over $1.50 a share to really make a dent in that debt.