SIRI intraday and weekend thread Friday 6-19-09

[Hopeful]

Anyone with PPS predictions for Monday and the rest of the week?

[JohnnyIrishXM]

It has been in the CC just before and just after the merger that the family plans for XMSR were about 22.3 % and SIRI made mention that their family plans were not as great but are working on getting them up. Now that we know the selfpay number (and because I dont think they included the promo in the family plan figure/%), I come up with 22% at least of self paid subs, which is about 3.5 million. God I hope that family plan percentage did not include the OEMs because then both our figures are way off. As for trying to calculate the promo ARPU, I would not even try all the contracts are different and to hard to figure out who pays what, and when.


Top of the morning to you to.

corrected my numbers on family subs per your correct info.but i need homer to affirm said facts!!!!!. But also i factored in hike in family sub rate to $8.99 from $6.99 so really i guess my numbers are technically correct if not more..

Thanks for info and are you surprised as i am about the App numbers this fast,even as i said it is probably 90% existing subs with I-Phones who want it there,it is still looking great,we will see in a few weeks or a month if it stays this popular...
Also with only a 7 day free trial we could see som significant new subs by end of 2Q June 30th with these downloads uptil June 22nd...
Maybe 50k new full subs and also a hell of alot of 2.99 on line sub adds..

considering we only lost 100k self pay subs in 1q this will help that figure in 2Q to maybe flat loss or add of minimal subs...also used car and Toyota additions...
ARPU has to go up and SAC has to go down again...

[john]

JohnnyIrishXM, If you notice I only corrected the numbers you had for the rate increase for royalties. I never said that all the rest of the increases wont add up to a huge add in revenue over the next few quarters. As a matter of fact I said the very samething about those other rate increases a while back. Hell if we are going to include all of the rate increases then both of our figures are way off to the low side. As for the 7 day trial I believe one reason is that the sub losses are bad and they want to get as many on the rolls as fast as possible before the quarter ends to try and take as much of a bite out of the losses as possible.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

JohnnyIrishXM, If you notice I only corrected the numbers you had for the rate increase for royalties. I never said that all the rest of the increases wont add up to a huge add in revenue over the next few quarters. As a matter of fact I said the very samething about those other rate increases a while back. Hell if we are going to include all of the rate increases then both of our figures are way off to the low side. As for the 7 day trial I believe one reason is that the sub losses are bad and they want to get as many on the rolls as fast as possible before the quarter ends to try and take as much of a bite out of the losses as possible.

Yes John agree,if you add all rate increases,it's at least 15% increase3d revenue over 1Q,which translates into $93 mil more ,this is where i got my
.01 to .03 EPS est..1 cent equals 39 mil..

[imromo24]

JohnnyIrishXM, As for the 7 day trial I believe one reason is that the sub losses are bad and they want to get as many on the rolls as fast as possible before the quarter ends to try and take as much of a bite out of the losses as possible.

sure do hope it works out, I thought the 7 day trial was odd...