SIRI intraday and weekend thread Friday 6-19-09

[mypearl]

i wanted to add that in a 10 year or 20 year run itll be less headache than rental property and in the end have WAY more money in the "kitty".

[SiriMonkey]

2 Theories here on why...

1.Mel doesn't have Mobile rights to Howard,so they are negotiating this.didn't come through on time to be released..
2.Mel has been in Neg with howard over new Contract and is proving a point to him and his agent to show how popular App will be without him,and also getting alot of FREE Pub doing it this way...

But i believe he'll be there for sure..It's all about Money to both..

I agree. The app shown at the stockholders meeting had him on it.
No way was that a mistake. Maybe marketing is smarter than we
think. Nah.

Julie

P.S. Unfortunately I have to get ready for work. All those people who couldn't make it to the bank during the week. Enjoy the day!

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Julie and Mypearl,great talking this morning,but junior just showed up and have to go Feed him his Pancakes....LOL Talk later and have a great Day.

[Sworntwofun]

Good Morning All!

Lots of Buzz about the App. and I think the timing is great with Fathers Day Tomorrow....Just like Mel said....

Cheers to all the Siri investors we have had lots of ups and downs...mostly downs but I believe that could be behind us now....and in the long run its a blessing in disguise that to be able to still get into any stock even below .50 cents. If Siri becomes the biggest multimedia company not only in the US but now possible the world and we can get to half the adv pps compared to the other multimedia companies we will be very rich....

So have a very nice weekend....and it will be interesting to see what will transpire on monday....Take it easy Tony

[john]

Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Make? Zero. Ebita will be destroyed with writedowns and capex. 2010? A good year? 100 million dollars. Wild guess. That would impress the hell out of me. Might be able to get a decent refi if they actual book profits.


Relmor,if your numbers come true as posted here SXM will be BK by end of 2010,that's how far off you are..

First off,with the new revenue streams coming fast and furius,it is hard to exstrapulate numbers on EPS positive as of right now without seeing 1 full Q of reported REV..But take an educated guess for you here.
1.The royalty pass on will add $180 million to bottom line in 2009
(july29th till Dec 31 2009 )$2 per month for 18Mil subs=$180m
For 2010 it is $400m to bottom line with todays sub numbers(no additions of subs)
So right there EBITDA is raised to more than $530m...for 2009(2010=well over $1billion to me)
2.Best of Rev for 900k subs as of 1Q cc for rest of year and any we add to will also increase EBITDA..
3.$2.99 on line fee implemented end of 1Q(no numbers yet)but 3Q's of rev from that.(didn't impact 1Q rev)
4.No appreciable debt due until 2011,2009 was pushed back and Dec bonds will be taken care of with the final $100m loan from Liberty.
The credit facility due is 4 payments which 1 was paid in May this year and rest is accounted for already=$175m with final next may 2010..
5.For 2Q i'm looking for .01 to .03 EPS minus Adj..Last Q was -(.01) with -(.07) with Liberty Adj.
The rest of 2009 (3Q and 4Q) looking for Real .08 EPS total...
6.Now 2010 is the Gift from Mel to us share holders,I'm conservatively expecting (get ready) plus $1 billion profit for the vyear,of course all the IF's being taken into account,SATS crash and all that...

Notice I Didn't even mention I-Phone,that is the wildcard..
If you read the Annual report,the Liberty deal was done to give SXM 2 years of basically debt free to get their house in order and show a huge profit to pay off existing debt and refi what they can't ,further out at better prices.
It was Mel's and Malone's master plan and in my opion it is working great.

Chew on that for awhile..

P.S Thanksgiving will be a very goor time for all of us at SXM shareholder land,
With 3Q report CC in Nov. with great guidance in OEM,EBITDA and Positive EPS(first time) given this stock will soar...
__________________
Phila. Phillies 2008 World Champs!!!
Someday hoping to say Eagles World Champs

Posted it here,gave wrong link...

1.) I hate to burst your bubble here but I told you once before your numbers are wrong you are way over estimating. First of all I would be very surprised if the OEMs are going to pay that royalty fee increase, not with the contracts being what they are. Second, so the number you should start with should be 15 million (self paying) subs. Then you forget that the rate increase is broken into two major parts, just under 2 dollars for the 12.95 sub and just under 1 dollar for the family plan sub. So if we use those figures then you come to (11.5 million X 2 = 23 million per month) + (3.5 million X 1 = 3.5 million per month) = 26.5 million per month X 5 = 132 million in extra revenue for the rest of the year, (that also is a over estimate because there is no telling how many will pay ahead to push the increase off).

2.) As far as we know so far it is only 700,000 and out of those there are about 50,000 that have gone with the al lacart of 6.99.



I could go on but I think you got the point.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

John,The rest of the year Forecast is taking into account the adding of new self paying subs after July 31 2009,which i belive will even out your correct figure with todays numbers..Assumption yes,but it was thrown out there without knowing App numbers,and with almost 1 million downloads,which i beieve 90% are already subs who want to listen on their I-phone.
but going forward if numbers recede and we have even a 5% take rate it is huge,but unknown at this point.

BTW good Morning to you to...

[JohnnyIrishXM]

where do you get the Family plan sub number of 3.5Mil?
With Arpu being 10.60 and 3.5mil in promos counted in that,it is pretty close to $12 arpu...

[SiriuslyLong]

.......i want somebody who will battle for my stock price like its his life......

Amen! The main purpose of ANY corporation is to return value to the stockholder. Mel has done a shitty job thusfar. We'll see what the BOD thinks as his contract is coming up too, correct?

[john]

where do you get the Family plan sub number of 3.5Mil?
With Arpu being 10.60 and 3.5mil in promos counted in that,it is pretty close to $12 arpu...

It has been in the CC just before and just after the merger that the family plans for XMSR were about 22.3 % and SIRI made mention that their family plans were not as great but are working on getting them up. Now that we know the selfpay number (and because I dont think they included the promo in the family plan figure/%), I come up with 22% at least of self paid subs, which is about 3.5 million. God I hope that family plan percentage did not include the OEMs because then both our figures are way off. As for trying to calculate the promo ARPU, I would not even try all the contracts are different and to hard to figure out who pays what, and when.


Top of the morning to you to.

[BTR]

i dont know, maybe its time for mel to go and get some new young guns in there that are on top of the game. can anyone dispute my opinion that what mel has done cant be done by someone younger and more eager to battle for this company's shareholders? look at the facts, what has he done for any of us longs? except for the new breed of S/H that came in during BK rumors, we are all losing. the bottom line is getting better and the stock price is worse.

forget sentiments and feelings. i want somebody who will battle for my stock price like its his life. the way most CEO's do. you got the merger, you got the synergies, you got the distribution networks, why the f.ck dont any of you deal with the people dragging this stock down. im not calling out a conspiracy , im just saying you have to answer to us and we're all getting ignored.

im a shareholder your job is to make me money. not for you to be quiet and keep me in the dark of why stern is not on the app, or why MM's seem to manipulate this stock and you dont do shit about it.

any of you morons that mention how mel said he will take care of the shorts last year 1 more time ...grrrrr..the stock price hit .05 they got taken care of FIRST CLASS on a G5. fkn idiots.

all i ask is you use common sense and not wishful thinking. cause most of you are day dreaming.

i am long , will remain long because i am a hardheaded fck that still blindly believes i will make money on this stock at some point and i am not letting go of my shares... LONG AND STRONG but mel get on the ball already, if your tired give it up to someone who can handle all the responsibilities of being a CEO.

Be cautious useing the M word , I did it yesterday jokingly and got slammed.
Of course I am a newbie here and you have been around so I am sure you will get a pass without getting told to take a hike. Maybe thats just how it works here.