I'm home sick today and have been surfing the web while listening to the "radio" feature on itunes. I have to say, I am kinda blown away...and as a Sirius investor...kinda worried(at least alittle). It got me thinking about internet radio in general. Not only online "jukeboxes" like Pandora and Slacker....but of ALL radio stations available on the internet.
Just flipping around the itunes radio selection is incredible.
The breath of stations is staggering. Hundreds and Hundreds from all over the world. Right now I am listening to some French Pop station. Before some Japanese pop. There are so many to choose from.
That is both cool in that there are seemingly endless choices...and annoying in that...it's all a bit overwhelming. Sometimes having TOO MUCH choice is almost as bad as too little. Plus some of the stations are not the best quality and need constant rebuffering. Others stream no problem. Some stated I had 10 minutes of free listening before I'd have to sign up to that individual station. Japan-a-radio for instance was an independent station which directed me to their site where I could subscribe to that ONE station for anywhere from $5 to $50 a month depending on the quality of membership. Um...oh-kaaaaay. Ha!
But for the most part they were real radio stations from around the country/world. Since they are real radio stations...there are real commercials however.
Still...it made me wonder. Is the internet with all it's free choices a real threat to Sirius and Sat radio? As a not too young but not too old person...I'd have to say yeah it is. Even as Sirius enters the internet world more aggressively with the upcoming iphone app(COME ON ALREADY!!!)....I think Sirius has it's work cut out for them.
Not only is there Pandora and Slacker...there are the regular streamed radio stations on itunes and others like "wunderradio" and so many more.
Sirius does have great content, but from just surfing the internet radio stations...so does the internet. With all the talk/sports/music that Pandora and Slacker lacks...and more than Sirius has.
Sirius has no commercials AND variety, so I suppose it combines the best of both.
But for me what is going to keep Sirius viable is it's ease of use. Listening to the internet radio on my home computer is one thing, but in the car, it's quite another. Sitting at my desk, it i much easier to sift thru the OVERWHELMING choices of internet radio. In the car, I'd probably risk crashing my car trying to scroll thru all those stations. That is if I'd even be able to get constant reliable reception of the internet.
Once technology catches up tho...i find it highly likely that internet radio will be a MAJOR threat in the car for Sirius. Right now it involves too much work for the average person. People want convenience. And I guess Sirius provides that.
I love radio. I love the commercial free aspect of Sirius and the ease of use in the car. But surfing thru the endless list of internet stations was kinda fun today. I love discovering music, and this kind of combined the passive ease of sat radio where you don't have to think or do anything....to the more active searching akin to loading ones ipod feels like.
Anyway, like many longs...I've been thru hell with this stock. I will listen to Sirius for as long as they are viable...but as an investor...I've had enough. Still...I've held thru so much and for so long, I am not going to just sell now. I am still down, and I have to think of an exit strategy. Looking at the internet today and mulling the future, along with the uncertainty of the car market, Liberty Media's true intentions, possible RS...etc etc.....I am no longer content to hold for a long time. The idea now is to get out.
I originally got in at $6.50 a share. I used the drop to .05 cents a few months ago to help average down to about .99cents a share. If I had had MORE money at the time it fell below .10 cents, I could have REALLY loaded up and been able to cash out already not only at break even...but for a PROFIT!
But alas, my funds were limited and I could only lower my average pps. I also missed out on trading the stock this past couple of months when it popped to .60 cents and then pulled back to .40 only to pop to .50s and then back to the .30s where it is now. i could have sold all my shares twice and gotten back in thus more than doubling my shares.
LOL. But I didn't.
So here I am. Sitting on over 20,000 shares wondering what to do. My original goal was to get out should it ever get back to $1...and ignore all the long term hopes of people who say it's going to blow past $1 and go much much higher.
As much as I let such fantastical thoughts wash over me from time to time(hey I'm only human)...I REFUSE to entertain them anymore. My sector of choice is solar and green fuels and I am tired of missing out on pops that I AM CERTAIN about. Sirius as an investment has defied all manner of reason and logic. I have never been trapped in a more schizo stock that seems to be controlled and manipulated so strongly to the point of absurdity. I am so tired of this stock it's not funny. And I have held thru it all.
My love of the product is still intact....but my blind faith in the stock is no more. Especially after mulling the future of internet radio. I think the stock still has room to move before internet radio really becomes a threat....and it's within this window of time that I am planning my strategy to get out of the stock. I just don't think the shareholders have much to hold onto.
And like I said, I am TIRED of missing out on other opportunities. If I had just 20grand of my investment in Sirius back, I would have put it into ESLR the other week which popped 28%...just to name a few of the choices I've missed this week alone.
I'm not even sure if I want to trade my way out of Sirius. Like if Sirius does pop over .50 cents again...do I sell all and then get back in when it drops to .30s again? Should I trade this volatility for awhile before I exit this stock for good? Sirius has been trading sideways in the .33 to .35 range for awhile now. My other question is if Sirius drops to the 20s again...should I average down one last time? I currently have about $3000 in the bank to invest with another $3000 coming by August.
If sirius pops to .64 again after the iphone app is released, I can get out with about $14,000 and a realized loss of about 10 grand. But at least I'll be out. If I add the $6000 I have saved, I'll be back to $20 grand in my "fun money" fund I reserve for trading. 20 grand is my magic number.
Yeah, I know...if I only hold out for Sirius to get back on it's feet...I could cash out with so much more. I hear people talk about blowing past $1 again...but I am so tired of such talk. True, Sirius popped 500% from it's .05 cent lows a few months ago....and YEAH it would have been great to ride that rocket up to insane profits instead of riding it just to lower my average price per share from $6.50 to below a buck. I would have loved to feel that with this stock.
But I am at the point now that just getting out is my TOP priority. I must resist the sweet call of the sirens that has kept me in this stock in the past. I have survived this long, but I fear if I hang on much longer, my ship will be smashed on the rocks. Maybe fooling around with the internet radio today helped me come to this thinking that I MUST get out before it's too late. I dunno. I will keep researching.
Logic tells me that Sat Radio is here to stay for awhile, and that I have time to get out. I have been very patient. So it's not a question of my resolve. I am just beginning to see some writing on the wall that is hard to ignore. I don't think internet radio is going to kill Sirius right away. But I also don't want to get caught with my pants down either. People in Vinyl laughed at CDs. Then people into CDs laughed at mp3s. And now people are laughing at internet radio.
I don't want to be alarmist...just smart. I want to prepare. I am glad I averaged down. It will help me get out with a more respectable loss.
I'm just thinking out loud. I am sure many are in the same situation trying to work out their strategy to get out. Just as I am sure there are many still convinced that the stock will get back to pre merger levels. I'm just not one of them anymore.