Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14

Thread: Internet Radio Threat and when to Cash Out...

  1. #1
    frigginregan is offline
    Member
    frigginregan's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Posts: 83

    Internet Radio Threat and when to Cash Out...

    I'm home sick today and have been surfing the web while listening to the "radio" feature on itunes. I have to say, I am kinda blown away...and as a Sirius investor...kinda worried(at least alittle). It got me thinking about internet radio in general. Not only online "jukeboxes" like Pandora and Slacker....but of ALL radio stations available on the internet.

    Just flipping around the itunes radio selection is incredible.

    The breath of stations is staggering. Hundreds and Hundreds from all over the world. Right now I am listening to some French Pop station. Before some Japanese pop. There are so many to choose from.

    That is both cool in that there are seemingly endless choices...and annoying in that...it's all a bit overwhelming. Sometimes having TOO MUCH choice is almost as bad as too little. Plus some of the stations are not the best quality and need constant rebuffering. Others stream no problem. Some stated I had 10 minutes of free listening before I'd have to sign up to that individual station. Japan-a-radio for instance was an independent station which directed me to their site where I could subscribe to that ONE station for anywhere from $5 to $50 a month depending on the quality of membership. Um...oh-kaaaaay. Ha!

    But for the most part they were real radio stations from around the country/world. Since they are real radio stations...there are real commercials however.

    Still...it made me wonder. Is the internet with all it's free choices a real threat to Sirius and Sat radio? As a not too young but not too old person...I'd have to say yeah it is. Even as Sirius enters the internet world more aggressively with the upcoming iphone app(COME ON ALREADY!!!)....I think Sirius has it's work cut out for them.

    Not only is there Pandora and Slacker...there are the regular streamed radio stations on itunes and others like "wunderradio" and so many more.

    Sirius does have great content, but from just surfing the internet radio stations...so does the internet. With all the talk/sports/music that Pandora and Slacker lacks...and more than Sirius has.

    Sirius has no commercials AND variety, so I suppose it combines the best of both.

    But for me what is going to keep Sirius viable is it's ease of use. Listening to the internet radio on my home computer is one thing, but in the car, it's quite another. Sitting at my desk, it i much easier to sift thru the OVERWHELMING choices of internet radio. In the car, I'd probably risk crashing my car trying to scroll thru all those stations. That is if I'd even be able to get constant reliable reception of the internet.

    Once technology catches up tho...i find it highly likely that internet radio will be a MAJOR threat in the car for Sirius. Right now it involves too much work for the average person. People want convenience. And I guess Sirius provides that.

    I love radio. I love the commercial free aspect of Sirius and the ease of use in the car. But surfing thru the endless list of internet stations was kinda fun today. I love discovering music, and this kind of combined the passive ease of sat radio where you don't have to think or do anything....to the more active searching akin to loading ones ipod feels like.

    Anyway, like many longs...I've been thru hell with this stock. I will listen to Sirius for as long as they are viable...but as an investor...I've had enough. Still...I've held thru so much and for so long, I am not going to just sell now. I am still down, and I have to think of an exit strategy. Looking at the internet today and mulling the future, along with the uncertainty of the car market, Liberty Media's true intentions, possible RS...etc etc.....I am no longer content to hold for a long time. The idea now is to get out.

    I originally got in at $6.50 a share. I used the drop to .05 cents a few months ago to help average down to about .99cents a share. If I had had MORE money at the time it fell below .10 cents, I could have REALLY loaded up and been able to cash out already not only at break even...but for a PROFIT!

    But alas, my funds were limited and I could only lower my average pps. I also missed out on trading the stock this past couple of months when it popped to .60 cents and then pulled back to .40 only to pop to .50s and then back to the .30s where it is now. i could have sold all my shares twice and gotten back in thus more than doubling my shares.

    LOL. But I didn't.

    So here I am. Sitting on over 20,000 shares wondering what to do. My original goal was to get out should it ever get back to $1...and ignore all the long term hopes of people who say it's going to blow past $1 and go much much higher.

    As much as I let such fantastical thoughts wash over me from time to time(hey I'm only human)...I REFUSE to entertain them anymore. My sector of choice is solar and green fuels and I am tired of missing out on pops that I AM CERTAIN about. Sirius as an investment has defied all manner of reason and logic. I have never been trapped in a more schizo stock that seems to be controlled and manipulated so strongly to the point of absurdity. I am so tired of this stock it's not funny. And I have held thru it all.

    My love of the product is still intact....but my blind faith in the stock is no more. Especially after mulling the future of internet radio. I think the stock still has room to move before internet radio really becomes a threat....and it's within this window of time that I am planning my strategy to get out of the stock. I just don't think the shareholders have much to hold onto.

    And like I said, I am TIRED of missing out on other opportunities. If I had just 20grand of my investment in Sirius back, I would have put it into ESLR the other week which popped 28%...just to name a few of the choices I've missed this week alone.

    I'm not even sure if I want to trade my way out of Sirius. Like if Sirius does pop over .50 cents again...do I sell all and then get back in when it drops to .30s again? Should I trade this volatility for awhile before I exit this stock for good? Sirius has been trading sideways in the .33 to .35 range for awhile now. My other question is if Sirius drops to the 20s again...should I average down one last time? I currently have about $3000 in the bank to invest with another $3000 coming by August.

    If sirius pops to .64 again after the iphone app is released, I can get out with about $14,000 and a realized loss of about 10 grand. But at least I'll be out. If I add the $6000 I have saved, I'll be back to $20 grand in my "fun money" fund I reserve for trading. 20 grand is my magic number.

    Yeah, I know...if I only hold out for Sirius to get back on it's feet...I could cash out with so much more. I hear people talk about blowing past $1 again...but I am so tired of such talk. True, Sirius popped 500% from it's .05 cent lows a few months ago....and YEAH it would have been great to ride that rocket up to insane profits instead of riding it just to lower my average price per share from $6.50 to below a buck. I would have loved to feel that with this stock.

    But I am at the point now that just getting out is my TOP priority. I must resist the sweet call of the sirens that has kept me in this stock in the past. I have survived this long, but I fear if I hang on much longer, my ship will be smashed on the rocks. Maybe fooling around with the internet radio today helped me come to this thinking that I MUST get out before it's too late. I dunno. I will keep researching.

    Logic tells me that Sat Radio is here to stay for awhile, and that I have time to get out. I have been very patient. So it's not a question of my resolve. I am just beginning to see some writing on the wall that is hard to ignore. I don't think internet radio is going to kill Sirius right away. But I also don't want to get caught with my pants down either. People in Vinyl laughed at CDs. Then people into CDs laughed at mp3s. And now people are laughing at internet radio.

    I don't want to be alarmist...just smart. I want to prepare. I am glad I averaged down. It will help me get out with a more respectable loss.

    I'm just thinking out loud. I am sure many are in the same situation trying to work out their strategy to get out. Just as I am sure there are many still convinced that the stock will get back to pre merger levels. I'm just not one of them anymore.

  2. #2
    zcurzan is offline
    Senior Member
    zcurzan's Avatar
    Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 404
    You make some good points. Without a doubt satellite radio is going to be forced to reinvent itself in the face of changing technology, but I think you can already see they are positioning themselves to be competitive with the internet delivery system.

    I know people like to throw this phrase around, but it is a legitimate point. Content is king. And when you are dealing with a subscription service, not only are you getting commercial free content, but also exclusive content. The sheer number of internet radio stations available is staggering, but a lot of it is rebroadcasts of terrestrials stations from other markets. It's something akin to premium digital cable vs local public access. Theres always going to be a segment willing to watch local programming through-the-static for free, but there are those among us who are willing to pony up the cash for the HBO experience.

    Which brings up another point. In many aspects, localism is dieing. Newspapers are folding, people are getting their entertainment and news from streamlined national sources on the internet. Satellite radio already has its foot in the door in that respect, offering an identical product coast to coast. Some people probably feel like that is a negative aspect of satellite radio technology, but as a consumer I really appreciate it. But it also is changing the entire business aspects of radio in general. Advertising dollars are migrating to the internet, and its clear terrestrial radios revenue streams are drying up. They too are going to be forced to reinvent themselves, to change the entire business model to cut costs (JackFM?) or to find a way to be relevant again.

    I don't think you can compare vinyl and CDs, to radio and satellite radio. Satellite radio, and now services like Slacker and Pandora are really the first innovations to the radio experience we have seen since radio debuted. Satellite brought exclusive content, a consistent product nationwide, and a commercial free experience. Slacker and Pandora have brought the element of control, or interaction with your music streams. And while the CD vinyl argument was about content delivery, radio's battle has the potential to be more about the content itself. There will always be the iPod generation who want complete control over their listening experience, or times where it is covenient to use a mp3 player. But stored music, via CD, digital, or whatever is never going to replace the need for "hands-off" delivery of music.

    Many have said it before, and I agree. Technology is hitting the point where the satellite delivery system is going to be supplemented by cheaper delivery methods, such as the internet, and cell phone services. And I say supplemented, because until the day that the entire U.S. and its surrounding water has a rock solid wireless internet connection, there is an undeniable benefit to the birds in the sky. And when that day comes, SiriusXM will be a media company and can concentrate on the product, and not the infrastructure.

    Internet radio is a threat to some extent. But any business or industry faces threats, the ultimate question is how are you positioned to change, and are you willing to change. My money is on their ability to innovate and evolve. In terms of the evolution of music, sports, and news content delivery, they are best positioned to take the torch from terrestrial radio and run with it and you simply can't say the same thing about Pandora or Slacker.

  3. #3
    frigginregan is offline
    Member
    frigginregan's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Posts: 83
    Hey thanks for responding ZCurzan. Just from reading your post made me think of something....what if SiriusXM creates a "dual" internet platform? One where it streams it's regular programming, and another where it mimics the Pandora/Slacker platform? They could call it Sirius Jukebox or something. If they did that, they'd beat Pandora and Slacker at their own game.

    The jukebox model would be free of course like Pandora/Slacker with upgrades to unlimited skipping for a fee.

    And people could also pay to become full SiriusXM subscribers with all their great commercial-free /uncensored music, sports, comedy and talk content we know and love. Of course this option would INCLUDE the jukebox model.

    Such a move would steal Pandora and Slacker's thunder.

    Just a thought.

    I am still worried about internet radio in general once delivery becomes more ubiquitous and easy for the average person. Yes those stations found on services like "wunderradio" and such are still for the most part commercial radio....but the sheer breath and volume creates an endless discovery of literally thousands of independent voices and new music. Also alot of crap...LOL.

    So I am both excited by Sirius's possibilities and worried at the same time.

    Lastly, if Satellite delivery will eventually be replaced, then what good will the satellites be? And why keep launching more?

  4. #4
    zcurzan is offline
    Senior Member
    zcurzan's Avatar
    Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 404
    Jukebox is an interesting idea. It would help to bridge the gap between Pandora users.

    It's easy to be negative about the company because they are so tight lipped, but the fact is we simply don't know what they are planning, or what kind of technologies they are looking into until they plop them into our laps. Barring the conspiracy theories, that the management team is intentionally trying to ruin the company... I got to think if we can dream up ways to better the product by making it more competitive or accessible, they have people on their end doing the same thing. Then again, how much does it cost for them to put together a flashier online listening portal, or a simple desktop app for that matter.

    Guess we'll see where this one goes.

    Quote Originally Posted by frigginregan View Post
    Lastly, if Satellite delivery will eventually be replaced, then what good will the satellites be? And why keep launching more?
    I'm not up to speed on all of the details, but my understanding is that it would take upwards of a decade (or several) for the United States to get any kind of substantial highspeed Wi-Fi internet coverage. Obviously it would hit the metropolitan areas first and spread out, but even so that's not the area that benefits most from the satellite coverage. The sheer area of the United States may not make it economical to try to cover every inch with internet access via towers, or however they intend to do it. So I think the satellites are going to continue to play an important role for the foreseeable future.

    Then again, I'm thinking more in terms of WiMax. I'm not too familiar with the 3G, 4G phone networks that are in place / being developed, or their capacity for that matter. If we were to get to a point where cars on the road were picking up an internet signal to stream music, I can't even begin to imagine the kind of bandwidth that is going to be pulling.

  5. #5
    frigginregan is offline
    Member
    frigginregan's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Posts: 83
    I also like the "jukebox" platform idea. Glad I came up with it. :-)

    To me it makes PERFECT sense. If the youth of America(and the world) are flocking to that way of listening to music, Sirius shouldn't arrogantly avoid it. I don't see any reason why they can't do both. It'd combine the best of each platform without alienating anyone...while at the same time creating a compelling reason for people NOT to choose Pandora or Slacker.

    Why choose them, if you could get everything they do...AND MORE.

    By creating TWO separate platforms, one that mimics the build your own station "jukebox" style of Slacker and Pandora and the OTHER that supplies people with the subscription based platform of their unique content such as Howard, Mad Dog, Music stations, talk and comedy....they will ABSOLUTELY become the one stop shop of music discovery and audio entertainment on the web AND in the Car.

    I'd hope that the iphone app hits like gangbusters and that Mel and company start ramping up the energy again. After 2 years of merger limbo, BK fears post merger...and then the economic and auto meltdown....it seems that we've been stuck for far too long.

    Now that synergies are becoming apparent and Mel has stressed the company is in "Making Money Mode"...I hope investors have something to cheer about and shorts have something to fear. It's been far too long the other way around.

  6. #6
    SiriusBuzz is offline
    Head Honcho
    SiriusBuzz's Avatar
    Joined: May 2007 Posts: 2,490
    Tyler and I mentioned that stuff over a year ago and people gave us shit to no end. Now, its a great idea! ...and it will happen if this company survives.

    I don't want to sound like a "know it all" but, I do hope that I sound bitter... because I am.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  7. #7
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Tyler and I mentioned that stuff over a year ago and people gave us shit to no end. Now, its a great idea! ...and it will happen if this company survives.

    I don't want to sound like a "know it all" but, I do hope that I sound bitter... because I am.


    I remember that and I will say the samething I said then, The cost is to great to do it for the internet. Did any of you guys ever think there is a reason that the content SIRIXM puts on the internet is not so much and much of what is are stations that they dont have to pay the internet royaty fees for (due to seperate deals they have with the people or is just not music). There is a reason Pandora said if internet royalty rates went up anymore they could not make it. Fact, SIRIXM makes alot less going through the internet. So simple logic is why would they make it as easy or as nice as going through satellite. It is not as simple as people think there is a clear balance that has to be achieved to make sure most pick the satellite platform over their internet platform. I can say with certainty they know this, just from what they have done with both. Everything they have done to date shows this is what they are doing.
    Last edited by john; 06-15-2009 at 07:57 AM.

  8. #8
    SiriusBuzz is offline
    Head Honcho
    SiriusBuzz's Avatar
    Joined: May 2007 Posts: 2,490
    They might make less on the internet feed but there is NO WAY they would lose money at $12 per month. If royalty rates don't increase Pandora is poised to turn a tidy profit this year with only their ad supported model which I highly doubt brings in more then $12 per month, per user.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  9. #9
    john is offline
    Guru
    john's Avatar
    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    Ok if I am wrong (which I am not and am just baiting you here) then you must have a logical answer as to why SIRIXM doesn't just offer every channel on the internet that it offers on satellite. They can do it, so why dont they.

  10. #10
    SiriusBuzz is offline
    Head Honcho
    SiriusBuzz's Avatar
    Joined: May 2007 Posts: 2,490
    If you remember, it took them almost a year to get Howard Sterns feed onto the internet and that content doesn't cost them extra. If I had to guess (I am sure this was true at the time) they can't get their IT department together. They don't have the servers or bandwidth they need to make it happen.

    That being said, they have music channels available online and the royalty rates are the same regardless of the channel which plays them. So, it doesn't have anythng to do with rates IMO.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •