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Thread: SIRI INTRADAY Thread Monday June 8th 2009

  1. #1
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    SIRI INTRADAY Thread Monday June 8th 2009

    Ok this is suppose to be the week for the expected release of the I-Phone APP,but with the trading action last week i don't think we are going to see it any time soon,but you never know..
    The company IMHO is doing a great job announcing and implementing new Revenue streams other than OEM installs and showing analysts the future way to profitable times.On-Line fee $2.99,Supposed royalty pass through $2.00,Best of 700k adds so far at $4.00,I-Phone app,20 exclusive new channels on internet feed,Used car agreements,second sub price hike $2.00..

    This will greatly add to the the already even profit line of 1Q cc...If anyone remembers 3Q cc last december the company gave guidance of 300mil EBITDA for 09,700 mil EBITDA for 2010 and 1.2 billion EBITDA for 2011..
    Of course Subs were estimated alot higher also,then they dropped all guidance because of economy and auto downturn in annual CC in March.
    This IMHO has kept the SP down at this level,with some manipulation pops,because analysts covering the company can't write opinions with no company guidance..so now they are showing how SXM is becoming a FCF growth story and it should get better for analysts after 2Q cc guidance and real growth numbers..JMHO based on FACT's laid out..

    So good Morning and hope this is the week we start to get it right..
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 06-08-2009 at 12:20 AM.

  2. #2
    atmgeek1 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Ok this is suppose to be the week for the expected release of the I-Phone APP,but with the trading action last week i don't think we are going to see it any time soon,but you never know..
    The company IMHO is doing a great job announcing and implementing new Revenue streams other than OEM installs and showing analysts the future way to profitable times.On-Line fee $2.99,Supposed royalty pass through $2.00,Best of 700k adds so far at $4.00,I-Phone app,20 exclusive new channels on internet feed,Used car agreements,second sub price hike $2.00..

    This will greatly add to the the already even profit line of 1Q cc...If anyone remembers 3Q cc last december the company gave guidance of 300mil EBITDA for 09,700 mil EBITDA for 2010 and 1.2 billion EBITDA for 2011..
    Of course Subs were estimated alot higher also,then they dropped all guidance because of economy and auto downturn in annual CC in March.
    This IMHO has kept the SP down at this level,with some manipulation pops,because analysts covering the company can't write opinions with no company guidance..so now they are showing how SXM is becoming a FCF growth story and it should get better for analysts after 2Q cc guidance and real growth numbers..JMHO based on FACT's laid out..

    So good Morning and hope this is the week we start to get it right..
    I see it in a similair way. In the past few months there were times when we had some reasoning for a bump in the sp and it didn't happen. So even though I'm excited for this week, I'm not holding my breath. IMO, this stock should reach $1 this year so there must be a catalyst and I'm hoping this week will be the start.

  3. #3
    john is offline
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    Well I hope your correct about that satellite being already paid for because I cant help but recall the interview "Sirius Roadkill" put up with Farber inwhich Mel said except for the one payment we have left on that satellite we would be FCF positive in 2009. Now if we take past FCF figures from the 4th quarters before and put that with the 1st quarter FCF of this last quarter(which was only a negitive of 4 million) that payment would have to be a big one. I am expecting the 4th quarter of this year to be huge when it comes to FCF. Now while I way over estimated the FCF for 4th Q of 2008 (homer said there would be less because of the cost of the merger (severance)). I would not think those cost are there this time.

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    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    Well I hope your correct about that satellite being already paid for because I cant help but recall the interview "Sirius Roadkill" put up with Farber inwhich Mel said except for the one payment we have left on that satellite we would be FCF positive in 2009. Now if we take past FCF figures from the 4th quarters before and put that with the 1st quarter FCF of this last quarter(which was only a negitive of 4 million) that payment would have to be a big one. I am expecting the 4th quarter of this year to be huge when it comes to FCF. Now while I way over estimated the FCF for 4th Q of 2008 (homer said there would be less because of the cost of the merger (severance)). I would not think those cost are there this time.
    John,believe in the farber interview Mel was talking about the Sat payment that was later pushed back into 2010 from 4Q 2009,as stated in the 1Q report,which Mel said they can push back further than that if they want..
    I don't see how with new Rev streams and lower expenses with auto's idled how we don't make $150mil FCF min,for rest of year...IMHO.


    P.S.long live the Duke!!!!!! LOL

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    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    wow .44 high pre, hope thats not a fake.

  6. #6
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    First of all, I agree that with all the increases and the OEM slow down, I dont think it is possible for them to be negitive FCF for 2009 if they dont have to payout to much for CAPEX. The fact is they lost subs yes but the increases more and I mean way more then made up for the losses in revenues from sub losses. Just looking at the 700,000 that signed up for the BofB then take away the 50,000 that went for the al lacart and 9.99 packages you still have a net of about 650,000 X 4 = 2.6 million extra a month which is the same as adding 248,000 new subs. Really that is without the extra increases from the 2 dollar up charge to family plans and the other up charge to the internet. If you take those two alone you are talking about adding another 250,000 to 300,000 subs. So taking both of those combined you get at least the revenue of the same as adding 500,000 net subs to to rolls without all the extra cost that go with the actual 500,000 new net subs.

  7. #7
    underway is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    wow .44 high pre, hope thats not a fake.
    saw that, but it's now at .35....but that's still good! Heading up today.....

  8. #8
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    i love how they drop the ask when the bid goes up. i hate to say manipulation but come on man, enough bullshit already

  9. #9
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    i love how they drop the ask when the bid goes up. i hate to say manipulation but come on man, enough bullshit already
    Yea, thats complete bs. They got it to go to .33 on pure manipulation. Call it as you see it, I say. You wont sound like a whiner to me at least. Im beyond sick of it, Its now purely imbedded in how I trade this stock. Sad. Should be fundamentals, market conditions, etc.. that dictate where a stock is going to trade, but that is not the case right now with this stock. I still believe Malone will try to get this pig up to sell shares. Who wouldnt do that if they could? I would.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 06-08-2009 at 09:25 AM.

  10. #10
    RMAN is offline
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    When could we expect a announcement about the app?

    Could it be first thing out, or after they go over the new operating system?

    Can you listen to the conference live?

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