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Thread: A beginners technical analysis of SIRI

  1. #1
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    A beginners technical analysis of SIRI

    OK, here we go.

    Moving average: 200 day MA is around 38 - 39 - strong resistance possible.

    Volume: recent volume is low suggesting no movement.

    Candlesticks - spinning tops: sideways movement, lot's of indecision, several doji in the last two weeks.

    Bollenger Bands: interesting here. They are tightening. If the stock drops lower, it will hit the lower band. Interestingly, the last time the bands tightened to current levels (mid April), the stock moved up.

    MACD Histogram: the stock has been oversold the last month. It appears to be crossing over the zero line which is bullish.

    RSI: slightly oversold.

    OBV: consistently downward. If volume increases, it may be a good sign.

    Stochastic (Slow): no indication of overbought or oversold.

    Prognosis - Oh hell, I don't know. I don't believe announcing an iphone app will fundamentally change the SP. Maybe it will spike, but count on it to be just that. 2Q results will be the dealmaker or dealbreaker for SIRI, and in this economic environment, I just don't have faith. SIRI has not made ONE PENNY - ever. All this technical analysis is meaningless until SIRI can show a profit. Only then will the stock move.

    So what do I do being $50,000 in the hole with 50,000+ shares? Keep the dead money dead and hold, or take the loss and get what's left of the investment working for me?

    Your thoughts?
    Last edited by SiriuslyLong; 06-07-2009 at 10:35 AM.

  2. #2
    Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    So what do I do being $50,000 in the hole with 50,000+ shares? Keep the dead money dead and hold, or take the loss and get what's left of the investment working for me? Your thoughts?
    Nicely written post!

    I kind of like what some others have done . . . have a "core position" that is off-limits to trading and then have an "over-core position" that may be used to trade the channels and build your share count for free or even lay-off those shares into another equity, temporarily, to catch a run-up on another opportunity. Some have also suggested trading Liberty Media as a hedge against your Siri position . . .

    But like you say, who knows? This stock continues to defy all rational explanation . . .

    Good luck with your trades!

  3. #3
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Thanks Roadkill! After passively watching my IRA get the life sucked out if it, I'm trying a differenct approach.

    Good advice. I most certainly can sell off half of my position and still hold enough shares that if SIRI would remarkably go to $3.00, I'd make good money.

    I've learned that part of investing is detachment. I do need to detach from SIRI.

    I expect a little pop this week. I'll sell some then.

  4. #4
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    OK, here we go.

    Moving average: 200 day MA is around 38 - 39 - strong resistance possible.

    Volume: recent volume is low suggesting no movement.

    Candlesticks - spinning tops: sideways movement, lot's of indecision, several doji in the last two weeks.

    Bollenger Bands: interesting here. They are tightening. If the stock drops lower, it will hit the lower band. Interestingly, the last time the bands tightened to current levels (mid April), the stock moved up.

    MACD Histogram: the stock has been oversold the last month. It appears to be crossing over the zero line which is bullish.

    RSI: slightly oversold.

    OBV: consistently downward. If volume increases, it may be a good sign.

    Stochastic (Slow): no indication of overbought or oversold.

    Prognosis - Oh hell, I don't know. I don't believe announcing an iphone app will fundamentally change the SP. Maybe it will spike, but count on it to be just that. 2Q results will be the dealmaker or dealbreaker for SIRI, and in this economic environment, I just don't have faith. SIRI has not made ONE PENNY - ever. All this technical analysis is meaningless until SIRI can show a profit. Only then will the stock move.

    So what do I do being $50,000 in the hole with 50,000+ shares? Keep the dead money dead and hold, or take the loss and get what's left of the investment working for me?

    Your thoughts?
    First Slong,let me preface my comment's here by saying you need to do what is best for your individual situation and whether this 50K money is killing your sleep at night or that you need it in the next year or you have some other stock you think will take off with the $18k money you would get if you sold here and moved on...

    Here is what i would do,only MHO due your own Due Diligence..
    1.if you have more money you are willing to lose,i would Average down..
    EX:right now $17k would double your shares and would bring your cost down to 100k shares at .67..this SP is definitely in play soon,to recoup your initial investment and profit also if goes higher.
    2.It's only a loss if you sell,so if no new money to invest i would sit on these shares and wait..
    3.you will never in the long term see these prices for this stock again,IMHO.
    It is a great buying opurtunity..

    This is what i have done,started out at 30k shares last august at $1.44 and have doubled my investment to have 400k shares at .26 avg,,but that is money I;m willing to lose,works for me,but again you and only you can make that decision..hope this helps...

  5. #5
    john is offline
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    SiriuslyLong, I think you should be counting your fricking blessings, after it went to .05 and then back to .35. If I were you at this point, I would consider it lost money, that way if SIRIXM ever gets out from under Gods thumb you will be happy.

  6. #6
    bassmaster is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post

    This is what i have done,started out at 30k shares last august at $1.44 and have doubled my investment to have 400k shares at .26 avg
    i fkn hate you ..you know that? me and you both know how great of a situation you're in considering we're not selling anytime soon..LOL..congratz on your avg down, job well done. im at 3/4 less @ 3x your avg, and im still fkn giddy about it..LOL

    their both right , it just all depends on your need for the cash. i mean i hung through the bk rumors so there is NO FKN WAY i am selling anytime soon. and even if im in the green , what am i gonna do ? give uncle sam short term capital gains tax after i went through hell with this thing? i need to wait till next spring to sell at the earliest.

  7. #7
    bassmaster is offline
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    hey johnny, btw , there is a great thread called MARKET WATCH here , penny stock chat, dont know if youre interested check it out. obv DO YOUR OWN DUE DILLIGENCE but for me wtf, drop 1k on a penny and get all my sirius investment and then some back , lol...

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