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Thread: SIRI INTRADAY Tuesday 5/19

  1. #21
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Hello everyone,took a step back for a while to enjoy the spring...
    IMHO
    We probably will be positive EPS in 2Q,as we only lost 3.4mil in FCF for 1Q.
    Even if we have the same numbers as 1Q with 400k sub loss and churn of 2.2%,remember we have a full quarter of Best of Rev for 200k added in march.
    Also $2.99 online fee started on march 11th,end of 1Q,so we have full quarter of that rev,which wasn't broken down in numbers.
    We do have $50 mil in principal to pay off Credit facility($25 mil more than 1Q)
    And i believe we'll have a 1 time charge for 148 mil shares issued to Stock plan for roughly 62mil...(not sure how 30mil mel gave up figures in)..
    But we lose 186 mil 1 time charge for Liberty deal,so we could see .01 to .03
    EPS positve.With the caveat being no other charges and subs and Churn are not worse....

    I think you are a bloody nut. I mean nothing like putting yourself out there. Johnny you do reallize there is a difference between FCF positive and actually being profitable. My god man come back to ground zero, you could have at least stoped at .01 and still been way out there.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I think you are a bloody nut. I mean nothing like putting yourself out there. Johnny you do reallize there is a difference between FCF positive and actually being profitable. My god man come back to ground zero, you could have at least stoped at .01 and still been way out there.
    Yeah it was out there,but that is why a range instead of exactly,but actually i posted that for a reason to see something!!!!

    But with Cost coming down more and if subs improve a little 2Q over 1Q and hopefully we see a little improvement in Retail and maybe some used car action and CHURN going back to 1.9% we can certaintly see a positive number..

    And it is all my MHO...
    but if we are positive i expect an earnings guidance reaffirment in June if right.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Yeah it was out there,but that is why a range instead of exactly,but actually i posted that for a reason to see something!!!!

    But with Cost coming down more and if subs improve a little 2Q over 1Q and hopefully we see a little improvement in Retail and maybe some used car action and CHURN going back to 1.9% we can certaintly see a positive number..

    And it is all my MHO...
    but if we are positive i expect an earnings guidance reaffirment in June if right.



    I'll say it again, if that happen this quarter (and I still dont think it will), you will see a huge increase in PPS. Thats because it wont matter if they lost subs. The reason is people would be able to realize and it could not be put any other way (by the MSM) that even at the level of subs they have now they are going to be a profitable company. That means any subs added from that point on is gravy. Like I said before I dont think they need any more then 16 million subs to be profitable, that also comes way down the line though, when they are acting way more like a single company. I just dont see the real synergies happening yet and they wont for at least a few more years. Then again who knows they are moving alot faster then I thought they could.

  4. #24
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    john,does it not feel like old times,you mean i can't ever write articles here?



    Yes i know about FCF and actually EPS to be profitable,but we only need to be 216 mil EBITDA for .01 EPS,think we can get there?

    Saw the discussion on the off-topic thread,is everthing Kosher now?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I'll say it again, if that happen this quarter (and I still dont think it will), you will see a huge increase in PPS. Thats because it wont matter if they lost subs. The reason is people would be able to realize and it could not be put any other way (by the MSM) that even at the level of subs they have now they are going to be a profitable company. That means any subs added from that point on is gravy. Like I said before I dont think they need any more then 16 million subs to be profitable, that also comes way down the line though, when they are acting way more like a single company. I just dont see the real synergies happening yet and they wont for at least a few more years. Then again who knows they are moving alot faster then I thought they could.
    The cost savings with synergies is what has me so bullish about 2Q,as in Dec.
    Mel was saying 400mil for the first merged year and I believe we are already over 500mil.correct ,with a Quarter and a half to go..
    Also with auto manufacturing on hold,most of cars sold are from 120 inventory back up,hence we should not lose many Promo subs,as cars made in Jan and feb are being sold this Quarter..
    Plus promos from 4Q are coming due in 2Q after BK scare,which i believe killed subs more than anything in 1Q..

  6. #26
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    But knowing Mel and company they will take a huge charge off to counteract it and we will be in SP hell for another quarter...

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    john,does it not feel like old times,you mean i can't ever write articles here?



    Yes i know about FCF and actually EPS to be profitable,but we only need to be 216 mil EBITDA for .01 EPS,think we can get there?

    Saw the discussion on the off-topic thread,is everthing Kosher now?

    I think your figures are a little off 216 million in positive EBITDA seems way low to me I think it is at least 360 million this year. Where did you get that 216 figure is that just the interest cost, because dont forget about CAPEX. I also did go back and looked at the CC and They said they would be able to cover their financing charges for the next two years. They also said that they would have to do no more SPENDING on satellites after the launch in 2010. till 2015. Now this gets back to what I was saying before about not being to sure about them having the cost all paid for yet when it came to the satellites. I am sure and I would feel better if homer confirmed this one though.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I think your figures are a little off 216 million in positive EBITDA seems way low to me I think it is at least 360 million this year. Where did you get that 216 figure is that just the interest cost, because dont forget about CAPEX. I also did go back and looked at the CC and They said they would be able to cover their financing charges for the next two years. They also said that they would have to do no more SPENDING on satellites after the launch in 2010. till 2015. Now this gets back to what I was saying before about not being to sure about them having the cost all paid for yet when it came to the satellites. I am sure and I would feel better if homer confirmed this one though.
    Tyler did confirm no CAPEX till 2015 if they want.they can post pone XM6 launch til then without penalty,it is in Annual report,also this launch is paid for already with sea launch and Sat itself is mostly paid for with 15 mil owed tied up in Arbitration for delayed cost penalty by laural...

    The 216 mil EBITDA is what they will need to be positive EPS this 2Q,IMHO,they said greater than 350 mil EBITDA for 09 year,but we did 108 mil in 1Q,which is historically low quarter of year...

  9. #29
    imromo24 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    But knowing Mel and company they will take a huge charge off to counteract it and we will be in SP hell for another quarter...
    i do love those 1 time charges...woo hoo

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    i do love those 1 time charges...woo hoo
    Actually it is smart bussiness practice,take all the bad news at once if losing money anyway...

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