View Poll Results: How long until At&t buys Sirius XM

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21. You may not vote on this poll
  • By November this year

    4 19.05%
  • 2 years

    1 4.76%
  • 2 anos

    1 4.76%
  • never

    15 71.43%
  • 3years

    0 0%
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Thread: Countdown to At&t buying sirius poll

  1. #1
    imromo24 is offline
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    Countdown to At&t buying sirius poll

    I say by the end of the year...

  2. #2
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    I say by the end of the year...
    If there is a change in control, the NOL carryforward, a valuable asset, is lost. I do not see a new change in control happening any time soon
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  3. #3
    imromo24 is offline
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    ahhh, but you voted 2 years?

  4. #4
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    ahhh, but you voted 2 years?
    I did??????

    If I voted it was by accident.....LOL
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  5. #5
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSavery View Post
    If there is a change in control, the NOL carryforward, a valuable asset, is lost. I do not see a new change in control happening any time soon
    Not if they simply sell their preferred shares. Since they bought them, cant they sell them?

  6. #6
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Not if they simply sell their preferred shares. Since they bought them, cant they sell them?
    No Relmor,For IRS purposes liberty deal sets off first change of owner ship which caused a 20% drop in NOL..any other change in next 3 years means loss of all,including Liberty selling shares...any company buying Sirixm in next 3 years takes a 38% premium hit on every dollar of profit taken,loss of 6 bil in NOL equals 2.2 bil loss to uncle sam...

  7. #7
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    Not if they simply sell their preferred shares. Since they bought them, cant they sell them?
    Liberty can not simply sell their shares, nor than they hedge against them. What Liberty can and can not do is spelled out in the SEC filings
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  8. #8
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSavery View Post
    Liberty can not simply sell their shares, nor than they hedge against them. What Liberty can and can not do is spelled out in the SEC filings
    ok, but someone said they can begin hedging after 2010. Is this true? Ive read the filings, and its a bit above my head at times, i will admit. I understand about 60 percent of it. the sec filings for the liberty deal are over 70 pages long. If i remember correctly.

  9. #9
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TSavery View Post
    Liberty can not simply sell their shares, nor than they hedge against them. What Liberty can and can not do is spelled out in the SEC filings
    So Tyler, based on all the filings now, it seems at least for me(remember I understand only around 60 percent of the deal) I can see a direction, intent and a path.
    What do you think Liberty will end up doing in 2 years? 3 years from now?
    Do you feel they will stop at 50 percent, go to a full 100 percent? Or simply stay at 40 percent, or somewhere in between?
    I believe they will stop at 50 percent. Malone seems to always want the option of dilution, and having stock from common in his companies. He doesnt have a history of going private. Based on a larger generator, DirectTV, he never went past 50 percent and now he only controls 28 percent.

  10. #10
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by relmor2003 View Post
    So Tyler, based on all the filings now, it seems at least for me(remember I understand only around 60 percent of the deal) I can see a direction, intent and a path.
    What do you think Liberty will end up doing in 2 years? 3 years from now?
    Do you feel they will stop at 50 percent, go to a full 100 percent? Or simply stay at 40 percent, or somewhere in between?
    I believe they will stop at 50 percent. Malone seems to always want the option of dilution, and having stock from common in his companies. He doesnt have a history of going private. Based on a larger generator, DirectTV, he never went past 50 percent and now he only controls 28 percent.
    IMO Liberty will take advantage of the losses during the next two or three years. The company is expected to be profitable by then. If the company looks to be hugely profitable, they will increase their stake. If the company not as profitable, they could become like a shark.

    If Liberty wanted, they could hedge their position (short), in effect driving down the price of the stock. This would make a takeover less expensive for Liberty if they decide to do so.

    Liberty has every reason to keep Sirius XM afloat, yet also has a strong reason to ensure that the PPS stays within reasonable ranges. Only time will tell as to what they do, and a lot depends on how much a success Sirius XM can make themselves before Liberty's hand are untied.

    I am not saying Liberty will be a shark, but the potential is there, and investors need to be aware of this. Yes, John Malone rescued the company, but in doing so, made sure that the company would have its hands tied, to a certain extent, as well.
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

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