SIRI Intraday Thread Thursday May 14, 2009

[underway]

when is the yearly stocholder's meeting?

I think 5/27.

[underway]

when is the yearly stocholder's meeting?

It's carnage

Nah...it's SIRI! This is what it does.....it will be back. The company is fundamentally sound at this point (after Liberty deal). It's pos cash flow too. And, pos sub growth among self-payers. AND A MONOPOLY.....All good. Will come together later this year. iPhone will help, perhaps boosting value sooner. We'll see.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Level2 is showing .35 should hold up today as their are no shares available under .36 right now,but another 16 mil shares went to Inst cheap again.
Bids are being raised a little now to get some big trades through..

[Siriustunes]

Be carefull,that article is misleading because yes we did add 1mil self paying
Subs year over year,meaning 1Q 08 to 1Q 09,but most of it was in 1,2 and 3Q
of 08.when Auto industry was still at 15mil cars sold avg...we only gained 87k subs in 4Q of 08,don't remember the breakdown
on self pays...but this 1Q 09 we lost 100k self pays and Siri finally is breaking down Self pays from Promo's which skews sub numbers in the past.
When XM and SIRI were competing they would pad their sub numbers to out pace each other,notice we always heard 19.1 million subs,but actually it is 15.4 self pay subs which is only true number for subs to use,so does that mean we lost 4 million subs?Promo's have a 3-12 month lag as when the promo period is up they either deactivate radio or they become Self pay sub.
This is why you will hear many including company in 1Q report that 2Q will just as bad or worse Sub wise than 1Q..but other basics of the company will improve,SAC,FCF, EBITDA and hopefully Churn...

Absolutely agree. The basics of business are now coming into play. Sirius is moving beyond the hype and now is showing that the ultimate business model works. All growth companies go through similiar cycles of ramp up:
1. accelerated burn rate to lift the business off the ground,
2. Stabilization of top line revenue,
3. improve processes and leverage efficiencies for cost reduction,
4. lift bottom line income,
5. reinvest to move company to next level of top line revenue growth.

I believe SIRI is at number 3 and realizing early results of 4. 4 will take several quarters, but news of what the plan is for 5 will lift this stock near term. Long term - execution of 5 is the key.

Everyone selling for losses right now will be clenching their teeth when this stock breaks out 50% - 70% over their sell price.

[relmor2003]

bought again at .352...
not thinking this is the bottom however, but it could be...
another buy in at .33...
cant go down forever...
MM's are buying here when retailers sell
some traders looking to buy lower might be left wondering what happened tomorrow....
hard play right now....
be careful, and dont buy on margin..

[Siriustunes]

bought again at .352...
not thinking this is the bottom however, but it could be...
another buy in at .33...
cant go down forever...
MM's are buying here when retailers sell
some traders looking to buy lower might be left wondering what happened tomorrow....
hard play right now....
be careful, and dont buy on margin..

You are probably close. Buyers don't seem to be dragging the sellers down very quickly now and you are right they are running out of time.

Mmmm...you have me wondering what tomorrow has in store.

[ZH1]

Thinking about buyin more shares of siri @ .35. Would it be better to wait to see if the price goes lower?

[stkdn]

Getting closer to the .34 that i was talking about. Too bad I need the money. Economy is rough. Hard to support an item that no one really needs. Maybe the i phone deal(if it happens,one never knows) will peak an interest. Hope so.

[relmor2003]

You are probably close. Buyers don't seem to be dragging the sellers down very quickly now and you are right they are running out of time.

Mmmm...you have me wondering what tomorrow has in store.

nothing i know of specifically, but its a friday... no bad news in site...
i think you may see people rather hold over the weekend, than be out of shares, especially after how far its fallen, and how high its been in the very near past.

[stkdn]

Mel K. what a guy..what a guy. Have to look at the top banana. He is a banana for sure.