SIRI INTRADAY THREAD: TUESDAY MAY 12th 2009

[tim wallick]

a long while back mel was asked about the fees payed to howard and he stated that howard knows he would have never got that deal from him..then a couple of weeks back I recall it may have been david frear mentioned they were dicussing howards contract now. during the liberty inverstors conference i think.

i also think this thing goes sideways and down for a while Im with john i dont see any chance for positive subs during the second quarter...and the mms can and will use any news they can to move this thing lower.

I feel for some of the longs, but suspect they get another chance to lower their cost average while loading up if they have the courage at this point with another billion shares being requested by management. and a reverse.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

[QUOTE=Tabor;32419]Hi Johnny,

Could you give me a few quick answers to the below?

How do you think the SP could be affected by the following....

1- If/when GM files for bk

2- If it is announced that Howard Stern will not be re-signed

3- The actual launching of the I Phone app.

Do you see any of these 3 having a significant impact on the SP? Is there any other news I should be on the lookout for? or are you expecting it to be pretty quiet until the Q2 CC?]quote]

Hey Tabor,i'll try to but it is just my opinion..

1.Gm won't go BK IMHO,but even if it does either way the subs will be impacted neg short term and at least we renegotiated the GM deal,don't have details but 1Q cc made it sound promising for the bottom line.
Now SP will be effected some by the perception to retail investors.

2.Howard stern is huge negative if not handled right.
My conservative estimate is he accounts for roughly 3mil subs who listen just for him,which contributes $31 mil a month and $372mil a year to bottom line plus Ad rev unknown..Now if he quits all together and gives up his channels we are dead,but don't think he will do that.He'll probably pull back with reneg new deal for less air time for himself and let his minions get more time and exposure(best scenario)hopefully at a much lower price than 100mil a year..just like Carson did with tonight show and find a successor..

3 I-phone app is my least experienced knowledge,as cell phone is as techy as i get..but if there are 17 mil phones out there as i've seen posted here and elsewhere in U.S. then it all depends on the terms siriusXM will charge and what content is available.probably biggest rev we can expect is
$2.99 on-line charge area and maybe $50 mil a year upside for now.
But the perception will be huge for younger crowd and would expect a big Advertising blitz to go along with it..SP should see a huge pop,meaning 10-20% when announced,but it is SIRI so who really knows..

The important news I'm looking for is Stock swaps for debt after annual meeting and additional shares are authorized.Other than i-phone app we won't see much on company bottom line announcements until 2Q report in Early August and subs won't improve until 4Q along with retail..JMHO

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

there she goes, what every1 who sold out before has been waiting for.

[Gallep]

there she goes, what every1 who sold out before has been waiting for.

There there tripp, it'll be okay. Just look at the 2 month picture, that should make you feel better. I makes me sleep better at night.

[Tabor]

Johnny,

Thanks for your answers.

I intend on buying more SIRI and staying long, but I want to try to buy in at the best time. I got burnt because I panic sold during that take down right after we hit .63....I won't do that again!!Your info helps a great deal.


Sincrely,

Tabor

[JohnnyIrishXM]

The takedown is working for Institutions to get in cheap today with a couple of big buys at .40, .39 and now trying for .38 as big buys lined up in the millions..the pop up to .63 was to aquire shares for funds to buy in at this level and sjake out the weak.But not many chances left at this price to get in,so it should go higher soon..week or sooner..

[Gallep]

The takedown is working for Institutions to get in cheap today with a couple of big buys at .40, .39 and now trying for .38 as big buys lined up in the millions..the pop up to .63 was to aquire shares for funds to buy in at this level and sjake out the weak.But not many chances left at this price to get in,so it should go higher soon..week or sooner..

Don't you mean Funds for Shares? sorry for nit picking, my ignorance isn't following...

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

well i decided to take my profits today, im gonna step back see hwat it does if the timing is right i will buy back in.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Don't you mean Funds for Shares? sorry for nit picking, my ignorance isn't following...

Shares for Mutual funds and institutional investors on the cheap,which is what i think has been going on in these lull times the last month or so..
Good catch should written it out better..

[ZealonsUnited]

Bought 10,000 shares at .3918