Subscribers

[TSavery]

A bit more clarity.....

Promotional sub drop offs are never reflected in churn. This is the metric I call fully loaded churn.

Fully loaded churn has always been higher that self pay churn. The company reports self pay churn. This metric went up in the quarter, as did the fully loaded churn.

In the past, the company did not seperate these out, but the diff. in the ranges is not that far out of whack with where things have traditionally been.

There was a certain amount of accuracy in what was said, but using the term "parking lot" was a poor choice, as parking lot subs are churn proof and deactivation-proof.

The reason the company offered up the additional detail was to fram the sub losses in the best possible light. Most companies would have done the same.

Fully loaded churn has traditionally been abouy .8 to 1 point above self paying curn. It is still in that range today. The miss was in fewer OEM subs filling the bucket. That is the story....not the fact that the fully loaded churn was still about the same as it always has been.

[bassmaster]

hey johnny, did cos1000 paraphrase everything tyler said onto brandons article?? seems like he did so without giving any credit to tyler. even changed some terms like fully loaded churn to "all in churn"...

[relmor2003]

hey johnny, did cos1000 paraphrase everything tyler said onto brandons article?? seems like he did so without giving any credit to tyler. even changed some terms like fully loaded churn to "all in churn"...

i seriously doubt tyler taught cos1000 anything on how subs are counted. Now if you said me, or someone else, then youd have a point...

[john]

hey johnny, did cos1000 paraphrase everything tyler said onto brandons article?? seems like he did so without giving any credit to tyler. even changed some terms like fully loaded churn to "all in churn"...

bassmaster, I have known cos1000 for a long time from SA and here. This information is not new and has been discussed much over the years. The term "parking lot subs" was actually ment as a swipe at SIRI by the XMSR crowd some time ago, as to how SIRI messes with their subscriber numbers. I dont think "cos1000" needed Tylers article/post to explain this.



JohnnyIrishXM, and relmar, So NOW you get it about a full penetration rate and how it would cost to much. I have been saying it for years and NOW you get it. If that is not the hardest slap in the face. JohnnyIrishXM just for that the "hit" is back on.

[relmor2003]

bassmaster, I have known cos1000 for a long time from SA and here. This information is not new and has been discussed much over the years. The term "parking lot subs" was actually ment as a swipe at SIRI by the XMSR crowd some time ago, as to how SIRI messes with their subscriber numbers. I dont think "cos1000" needed Tylers article/post to explain this.



JohnnyIrishXM, and relmar, So NOW you get it about a full penetration rate and how it would cost to much. I have been saying it for years and NOW you get it. If that is not the hardest slap in the face. JohnnyIrishXM just for that the "hit" is back on.

John, sometimes you need to be slapped in the face. But dont you agree that if RETENTION was over 55 60 percent, full penetration is beneficial, but at 44 percent, thank god its not higher basically.... So the delay this year to get to 63 or 60 percent as SiriusXM has stated they will be around by the end of year, would coinicide with people having maybe a bit more money, maybe found a job again, or was simply waiting to make sure they were going to be in business. Q1 did have the bk scare. who knows how that affected retention and cancelling of self pay customers. I think self pay cancellations will drop dramatically starting this corner, as the bk, and the channel changes, and internet charge are now a thing of the past. if they didnt cancel by now, they are PROBABLY not going too.

[john]

John, sometimes you need to be slapped in the face. But dont you agree that if RETENTION was over 55 60 percent, full penetration is beneficial, but at 44 percent, thank god its not higher basically.... So the delay this year to get to 63 or 60 percent as SiriusXM has stated they will be around by the end of year, would coinicide with people having maybe a bit more money, maybe found a job again, or was simply waiting to make sure they were going to be in business. Q1 did have the bk scare. who knows how that affected retention and cancelling of self pay customers. I think self pay cancellations will drop dramatically starting this corner, as the bk, and the channel changes, and internet charge are now a thing of the past. if they didnt cancel by now, they are PROBABLY not going too.

Relmar, I have always felt penetration has gone up to high and to fast. The cost of the radios in the beginning made it unrealistic for them to put it in the lower end models. Common sense tells me that the lower end models is were most of the churn comes from. The only reason I was not more pissed about it, was I gave Mel the benefit of the doubt. I now am starting to see that maybe that benefit/trust was misplaced. I mean really they said in the last CC that they are finding out that the lower trim models are where alot of churn comes from. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, it took them this long to figure that out. Now I am not saying that it should never happen but lets get the radio down to 30 dollars for cost first or at least cut the subsidy by half. As I have said before they may not have had as many subs but they may have been profitable by now also. As said before the main reason retail has taken such a big hit, is because people dont buy satellite radios at a retail stores (to put them in their cars) if there already is one in your car (unless you are someone like Tyler who needs every last platform out there).

[JohnnyIrishXM]

bassmaster, I have known cos1000 for a long time from SA and here. This information is not new and has been discussed much over the years. The term "parking lot subs" was actually ment as a swipe at SIRI by the XMSR crowd some time ago, as to how SIRI messes with their subscriber numbers. I dont think "cos1000" needed Tylers article/post to explain this.



JohnnyIrishXM, and relmar, So NOW you get it about a full penetration rate and how it would cost to much. I have been saying it for years and NOW you get it. If that is not the hardest slap in the face. JohnnyIrishXM just for that the "hit" is back on.

John i agree it is good to know for info purposes only,but i don't need to know how they become profitable or not,just that they do...
My investment strategy is related to FCF,EBITDA,Competition and DEBT load.
Basically a growth value priced company..


But now that Tyler has exp-lained it i get it,first time i've seen the explaination posted on SXM BUZZ.....Tyler(John's new confirmer)....LOL JK

I have seen you post about it and your Great with your post and calm demeanor for neewb's like me here,so Thank you Very much!!!!!





















Maybe that will cancel the Hit by blowing smoke up his ARS!!!!!

[JohnnyIrishXM]

hey johnny, did cos1000 paraphrase everything tyler said onto brandons article?? seems like he did so without giving any credit to tyler. even changed some terms like fully loaded churn to "all in churn"...

He doesn't need Tyler's take on it,but he posted it for a reason and he's more tactfull about it than i ever could be!!

[bassmaster]

all apologies to cos for the assumption

[john]

JohnnyIrishXM, That was hilarious. I have to say the space adds alot, but the funniest part was the picture with the comment.