Total net subscriber loss for Q1 2009 predictions

[homer985]

1. XM lost a ton of subs in Q4 for reasons that are not "continuous".

To be fair here, XM took it in the rear from OEM sales during Q4 -- while Sirius sucked slightly less at retail during Q4. The combination hurt XM.

Overall NET additions were 128K positive for Sirius and 45K negative for XM during Q4 (combined is the 83K NET additions reported by the company)

The NET additions were split with XM only adding 55K OEM subs during the quarter, while Sirius added 163K during the quarter. That is not normal for XM and indicative of the economy and the tanking of the auto industry. XM made their bed with the auto OEM's and paid for it during Q4.

At RETAIL, XM lost 99K while Sirius lost 32K during the quarter. Both sucked... it's just that Sirius sucked less.

That's what happens when you don't market the product, IMHO. Then combine in the merger process and rumors of bankruptcy and all those other things.



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[SiriusBuzz]

The title of the thread reveals how Charles has felt about this STOCK for months. Hes been wrong for months, and he will keep being wrong for many more months. I have nothing against Charles, in in fact if you read my posts, you will know that I havent taken sides.

Have I really been wrong for months? For months I have said and only said that I am NOT LONG this stock with the current state of this company. I never once said there wasn't money to be made day trading this stock.

I am not biased, and this has nothing to do with how I feel about this stock. I honestly didn't think for a second that anyone thought the numbers would be positive. I can go change the title right now. The only reason I didn't say that there would be a 400k loss is because I assume they will hide 100k with creative number counting. If I am wrong, so be it but, honestly, I don't think positive subs are possible.

UNLESS there is very creative counting as you pointed out

5. Sirius has been know to "forget" to turn off radios when they cancelled.

[relmor2003]

Have I really been wrong for months? For months I have said and only said that I am NOT LONG this stock with the current state of this company. I never once said there wasn't money to be made day trading this stock.

I am not biased, and this has nothing to do with how I feel about this stock. I honestly didn't think for a second that anyone thought the numbers would be positive. I can go change the title right now. The only reason I didn't say that there would be a 400k loss is because I assume they will hide 100k with creative number counting. If I am wrong, so be it but, honestly, I don't think positive subs are possible.

UNLESS there is very creative counting as you pointed out

Well said. I believe you. I see your point. Interesting though that a foregone conclusion can affect what you type without even thinking about it. I agree we could lose subs. In fact, we should EXPECT to lose subs. I just dont think we will. For all the reasons Ive stated. Is that wishy washy? Lets just say I wouldnt be surprised if we lose subs, but no where near the estimates Im hearing. Heres my range of probablity...
Loss of 100k to a gain of no more than 80K. Im a bit optomistic it appears.

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Well said. I believe you. I see your point. Interesting though that a foregone conclusion can affect what you type without even thinking about it. I agree we could lose subs. In fact, we should EXPECT to lose subs. I just dont think we will. For all the reasons Ive stated. Is that wishy washy? Lets just say I wouldnt be surprised if we lose subs, but no where near the estimates Im hearing. Heres my range of probablity...
Loss of 100k to a gain of no more than 80K. Im a bit optomistic it appears.

Rel,revenue wise you are correct,in 4Q we had 500k sign up for best of,expect to double that to 1mil or more,plus people like me signed up for 3years to get discount on Best of and on-line free,it is like adding 2 net subs rev wise...now do the math and you get neg 300k to 400k subs for 1Q but you get 1mill net positive subs in Rev..and right now it is all about profit,period!!!!! nothing else....

[otone]

Charles, so "creative number counting" will hide 100K subscribers, but "very creative number counting" will hide 400K+ subscribers?

I think if you take Homer's worst case numbers, Balance that with possibilites that Rel presents and throw in a little "charity" for some subscribers having to make a fiscal decision and I still think we are around 0, but probably slightly negative since everyone is expecting extremely negative.

WTFK

[SiriusBuzz]

I just dont think we will. For all the reasons Ive stated. Is that wishy washy? Lets just say I wouldnt be surprised if we lose subs, but no where near the estimates Im hearing. Heres my range of probablity...
Loss of 100k to a gain of no more than 80K. Im a bit optomistic it appears.

No, it isnt wish washy, its a good point. One that begs the question, for educated investors, how important is the real number opposed to the wish washy number they will report and how creative are they with that number?

You would think that some day they will have to expire those subs they have been forgetting to cancel and if they don't have a big quarter in the near future, there is no where to hide those numbers.

[relmor2003]

Rel,revenue wise you are correct,in 4Q we had 500k sign up for best of,expect to double that to 1mil or more,plus people like me signed up for 3years to get discount on Best of and on-line free,it is like adding 2 net subs rev wise...now do the math and you get neg 300k to 400k subs for 1Q but you get 1mill net positive subs in Rev..and right now it is all about profit,period!!!!! nothing else....

Great point Irish. I also agree that the focus on this CC will not even be Sub counts, as like Charlie is saying its confusing, and not very accurate. Look for some clarity from SiriusXM on these numbers at some point, as a kind of purging of bad data so to speak. The focus will be on revenue(good), and SAC and ARPU. All should show nice improvement over Q4. If thats the focus, this price will do quite well. If the street hammers and hammers them on the sub count... Its up in the air.... But I still think the .30s are gone. Just like when I said the .20s were gone. Etc... etc....
Of course this is all my opinion, and I have been wrong before.

[homer985]

Charles, so "creative number counting" will hide 100K subscribers, but "very creative number counting" will hide 400K+ subscribers?

I think if you take Homer's worst case numbers, Balance that with possibilites that Rel presents and throw in a little "charity" for some subscribers having to make a fiscal decision and I still think we are around 0, but probably slightly negative since everyone is expecting extremely negative.

Without increases in gross additions, I don't think it is possible to hide a loss of 300K~400K subscribers.

The problem is that if you show some charity to some subscribers who may be looking to churn out because of hard times or not sign up for the service after their promo period - it's going to show up in the numbers.

50K-100K could be creatively hidden IMHO, spread out through various areas... but for 400K to be hidden, it's going to show up significantly almost everywhere. Whether via improved churn or increased promo take rate -- or even increases in promo subs -- it's going to show up.

The only way to "hide" significant numbers like that is to have increases in gross additions. But keep in mind that Q1 is traditionally the lightest of all quarters. If Sirius XM shows increased gross numbers in Q1 to numbers that are near this past Q4 -- it's going to raise red flags. So I don't think they'll show increased gross figures.

At 2.85% churn, deactivations are going to be around 1.6MM; so the gross will need to be at least that to avoid a negative number. Improved churn down to 2.6% will only hide 100K subs... but an improvement like that will also be noted by the analysts. Red flag.

And so forth, you get the idea. Hiding that many subs, would not be easy. Maybe 100K, but not more. I think 300K negative is a fair figure and is in my best case scenario.



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[sxminvestor]

Without increases in gross additions, I don't think it is possible to hide a loss of 300K~400K subscribers.

The problem is that if you show some charity to some subscribers who may be looking to churn out because of hard times or not sign up for the service after their promo period - it's going to show up in the numbers.

50K-100K could be creatively hidden IMHO, spread out through various areas... but for 400K to be hidden, it's going to show up significantly almost everywhere. Whether via improved churn or increased promo take rate -- or even increases in promo subs -- it's going to show up.

The only way to "hide" significant numbers like that is to have increases in gross additions. But keep in mind that Q1 is traditionally the lightest of all quarters. If Sirius XM shows increased gross numbers in Q1 to numbers that are near this past Q4 -- it's going to raise red flags. So I don't think they'll show increased gross figures.

At 2.85% churn, deactivations are going to be around 1.6MM; so the gross will need to be at least that to avoid a negative number. Improved churn down to 2.6% will only hide 100K subs... but an improvement like that will also be noted by the analysts. Red flag.

And so forth, you get the idea. Hiding that many subs, would not be easy. Maybe 100K, but not more. I think 300K negative is a fair figure and is in my best case scenario.



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Is it possible that they have taken the biggest hits in recent quarters with the Chrysler and Ford 1 year and 6 month trials - meaning that it could be a lighter quarter for those trial periods subsiding ?

Maybe they have pushed some to 2nd quarter where the retail channel can help bail them out more.

[Siriustunes]

I have not a clue where subs will come in, but would think that using the new car sales for first quarter, historical retail for first quarter and an average churn rate, you would get a decent assessment. Has anyone worked all the hard numbers that are available?

Even if the subs come in negative, Malone is involved now and he is not going to allow the stock to get slammed. My prediction is not on net subs, but that the future vision of the company will be "framed" and that will provide the lift. In the interview with the Denver Business Journal, Malone mentioned Ergen twice concerning possible future deals. Not just in passing or as a response to a direct Ergen question, he brought his name up. He may have been telegraphing a little, but not twice. Something is brewing behind the scenes and my hopes is we get a glimpse this week.

And it would be great if the iphone app was unveiled. Maybe wishful thinking.