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Thread: Total net subscriber loss for Q1 2009 predictions

  1. #11
    otone is offline
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    Since Tyler picked a range, I am too :-) They'll be break even (0) +/- 30k.

  2. #12
    tim wallick is offline
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    but after looking at the auto sales data ytd

    I respect Tyler's work in this area and his understanding of the Siriusxm operations and reporting methods.that said I'm not even going to attempt to work these numbers. im also sorry to say i think hes correct with his math and am thinking arup could also be effected do to a lager percentage of a smaller total base of the autos being parking lot subs? or am i thinking wrong?

  3. #13
    imromo24 is offline
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    dirty pumper checkin' in...

    positive subs....

  4. #14
    john is offline
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    I like the number 300,000. Now that that is out of the way I think they lose 213,000. I never thought I would say this but, thank god for them constantly getting worse subcriber numbers before the last 4th Q. I say that because If we were to look at the hey day when they were getting 1, and 1.5+ million subscribers combined in the 4th quarter then 80,000 would seem to be really really really bad which would make the 1st quarter the same way. The point being is I dont think there would have been 500,000 subscriber difference between 4th quarter and 1st quarter or any other quarter from several quarters back going forward.

  5. #15
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    i don't see how we can not be neg subs,about 300k to 400 k neg is my guess,but not looking at that..My numbers are 700mil rev at least and 30mil
    FCF for 1Q with best of and extended out contract's plus on-line rev factored in . 4Q had 500k best of subs,hoping we tripled that for 1Q.Churn will be bad around 2.2% i believe but hopefully ARPU will stay flat at 10.60 or go up a little..But REV and FCF plus Further guidance on EBITDA and subs is my focal point..

  6. #16
    LMaze is offline
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    Trip: I agree think positive! This conference call should be interesting and I can't wait for the annual meeting.

  7. #17
    ZealonsUnited is offline
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    400,000 sub loss = bad news = share price drops ?

  8. #18
    TSavery is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by LMaze View Post
    Tyler: if we add 400000 plus subscribers I would say that the stock price breaks $.63 I don't think anyone thinks that SIRIXM will add that many new sucscribers in the first quarter. Add that to the synergys kicking in from the merger, lower SAC and $300 million EBITDA and the stock breaks a dollar by July. Lord I hope you are right
    LMaze.....

    The will lose subscribers, not add them.
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  9. #19
    edeyoung99 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I like the number 300,000. Now that that is out of the way I think they lose 213,000. I never thought I would say this but, thank god for them constantly getting worse subcriber numbers before the last 4th Q. I say that because If we were to look at the hey day when they were getting 1, and 1.5+ million subscribers combined in the 4th quarter then 80,000 would seem to be really really really bad which would make the 1st quarter the same way. The point being is I dont think there would have been 500,000 subscriber difference between 4th quarter and 1st quarter or any other quarter from several quarters back going forward.
    John, What can I do to get you to change your answer? The reason is because 99.9% of the time you are dead on. I would appreciate it if you might reconsider. Unless this is just a guess!!!! Then I will be ok because you are not using your common sense or logic, but if you are......

  10. #20
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by edeyoung99 View Post
    John, What can I do to get you to change your answer? The reason is because 99.9% of the time you are dead on. I would appreciate it if you might reconsider. Unless this is just a guess!!!! Then I will be ok because you are not using your common sense or logic, but if you are......


    Well first of all I said that common sense, logic and not going to far off the reservation, will allow you to be correct 90 to 95%. It comes as a guess but I would be worried about Tylers estimate because he always stay on the reservation.


    My guess comes because of the past few 4th quarters we saw 4th quarter sub numbers falling off before. If I recall the difference between 4th quarter and 1st quarter (2007/2008) is not even close to what it used to be. Before the difference was 1 million or more, now it is alot closer.



    P.S. I do alot better with shipping stocks. Hey cos1000 what did I tell you, you got to love it.
    Last edited by john; 05-05-2009 at 10:41 AM.

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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