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Thread: May 7th Q1 Results!!! Not last minute.

  1. #1
    relmor2003 is offline
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    May 7th Q1 Results!!! Not last minute.

    An entire week ahead of last minute, wow. They must be excited about something....

  2. #2
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    maybe another increase in arpu? not so shabby sub numbers after all? oh boy i cant wait.

  3. #3
    imromo24 is offline
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    Yes, announced early too!

  4. #4
    john is offline
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    trippingthespeculatingpos, If they didn't have an increase in ARPU, I would be surprised.

  5. #5
    sxminvestor is offline
    Anyone believe they somehow did not have a net loss of subs ?

  6. #6
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    Anyone believe they somehow did not have a net loss of subs ?
    Yes, there is a scenario that might make them even, or up under 100k max. Thats if all the subs that cancelled in frustration from channel changes, and disgust over the merger are gone. They are out. Retail couldnt have been worse in Q4. New radio this quarter. I think it was the Mirage. Car sales might have been strong late March. New subs added in Q1 in simple anticipation of the IPHONE and IPOD release. Consumers know they arent going BK for the first time(1 full month of knowing this). Add every positive together possible, and they might squeak out positive subs(also if they extended free trials, that wouldnt have hurt either).

  7. #7
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    Anyone believe they somehow did not have a net loss of subs ?


    I dont think so. As a matter of fact if they even got one net sub this quarter then the PPS is going way up. Why because to off set the bad subscriber number they are going to be giving a higher ARPU and revenue number due to the family plan, internet increase, and other subs prepaying to lock in their old rates. Those two alone will not only make up for the bad sub number but as everyone now knows the OEMs are starting to pick up big time. So SIRIXM may also say something about the OEMs picking up.

  8. #8
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I dont think so. As a matter of fact if they even got one net sub this quarter then the PPS is going way up. Why because to off set the bad subscriber number they are going to be giving a higher ARPU and revenue number due to the family plan, internet increase, and other subs prepaying to lock in their old rates. Those two alone will not only make up for the bad sub number but as everyone now knows the OEMs are starting to pick up big time. So SIRIXM may also say something about the OEMs picking up.
    Right John. Lets not forget deeper penetration rates this quarter too. That might also help make subs even, or slightly up or down only. If they lose only 10000 subs, this stock is going to go up from that alone. Thats why we arent trading in the .60's and ..70s right now. They are pricing in crappy subs for this quarter. They will wait and see on the other stuff. .40 cents, Id say buyers right now are already pricing in a bad quarter. If its not......
    Or its good....
    Look out.

  9. #9
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by john View Post
    I dont think so. As a matter of fact if they even got one net sub this quarter then the PPS is going way up. Why because to off set the bad subscriber number they are going to be giving a higher ARPU and revenue number due to the family plan, internet increase, and other subs prepaying to lock in their old rates. Those two alone will not only make up for the bad sub number but as everyone now knows the OEMs are starting to pick up big time. So SIRIXM may also say something about the OEMs picking up.
    John a little cold water in the face of this argument..Agree about ARPU and EBITDA and FCF are probably both up to the best they have ever done.
    But i went over Annual report again and noticed that Churn rate went up from
    1.6% to 1.7% and only 86000 net subs with no retail.Now if you factor in no guidance given on March 12 CC i believe they forsaw a Churn rate probably
    approaching 2% and with BK and merger discontent with content change probably a net loss of 300k or more subs could be comimg down the pipe.
    Plus with i think a 3 month lag tied into self paying subs ,1Q probably isn't worse sub news to come,2Q is when Jan,Feb and March bad auto numbers show up with regards to Churn and SAC news..
    I personally think the only way SP doesn't go down 10-20% after 1Q CC is if EBITDA for 1Q and Guidance for rest of year is beyond expectations given in Annual CC plus substantial FCF for 1Q and continued Cost synergies showing up,including some new contracts announced with content..
    Also the Wild card of I-Phone app update of when to expect it.
    I believe that is why no one is buying here now,remember buy the rumor and sell after earnings...
    Hope i'm wrong..
    P.S. but if John and Relmor are right about flat sub loss,plus or minus 20k,then yes if other factors come true,EBITDA,FCF and ARPU,then yes i think SP will soar to .70's.
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 04-27-2009 at 10:55 PM.

  10. #10
    john is offline
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    JohnnyIrishXM, I am not saying that that will not lose alot of subs. I think they will but that the churn will stay low at 1.8 range because of SIRIXM giving months away. I also think that the ARPU will still go up a good amount which will by far offset any loss of net subs. I am just saying, I think most are going to want to be in before the news is out. I dont like making a prediction with only this little of a time frame but I think we go up again to at least .5 (and now that we have seen .63 already that is even possible again)before the CC/10-Q is out.

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