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Thread: Freedom

  1. #181
    Newman is offline
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    Here is an interesting post I found over on SatWaves:
    Quote Originally Posted by XM Dave
    Ok, here is what I don't understand. Sirius XM currently has 8 billion shares authorized. If you include the 40% dilution to Liberty, that is about 6.2-6.3 billion shares. Now, Liberty has not yet converted, and they get 40% when ever they DO convert. So figure that any new shares given out, for ever 600k shares given out/sold to an investor, another 400k goes to liberty media to maintain their 40% stake at time of conversion.

    Using these numbers, Sirius still has access to sell and/or trade 1.02 billion shares to investors, and they would have to give roughly 650 million shares to Liberty. **I say give, of course they just need to hold it in reserve for when/if the conversion is made**

    At the current price, that 1 billion shares would net Sirius around $500 million in cash. Add in the shares they are requesting (Sirius would get 600k, and Liberty would get 400k), that would get them another $300 million. This would bring their grand total to around $800 million.
    Numbers are a bit off as compared to Homer's, but the theory holds. It looks like this is using a share price of 50 cents per share. Basically it looks like by increasing the float to 9 billion, Sirius XM would have about 1.6 billion shares to trade and/or liquidate for debt. If they hold onto the the shares until the price increases (like around $1), you could potentially see a significant reduction in debt. Would that reduction in debt offset the dilution factor as far as PPS goes? Might not be as bad as some people think...

  2. #182
    JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bassmaster View Post
    ya, i agree they are protected from being dilluted. i came to the conclusion(not a hard one to figure out) the issuance will be done before any conversion. but regardless, whether they convert or not, the stock is dilluted with the liberty deal. i'm just trying to spark up a general discussion as to what you guys think would be a fair value of the PPS after using the new (1bb) shares to pay down some debt, and whether dilluting further is a good idea thats all. put your thinking caps on..ty..gl
    Bassmaster,if you read the proxy statement they pretty much tell you what they are going to do...here is my take:"

    all 9 billion shares will be issued before R/S takes place sometime in 2010 before June..
    3.85 issued now
    plus Liberty is owed 3.6 billion of 9billion=40%
    Leaves1.55 billion to erase debt or used to extend out debt.or combo..
    I would think they would want SP to be in the $13to $18 after R/S,depending on what sp is at time 1-10 to 1-20 reverse split.Remember it is a minimum of 1-10 they can do,none lower..
    that leaves 450mil to 900 mil after R/S...
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 04-24-2009 at 06:31 AM.

  3. #183
    cos1000 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Here is an interesting post I found over on SatWaves:


    Numbers are a bit off as compared to Homer's, but the theory holds. It looks like this is using a share price of 50 cents per share. Basically it looks like by increasing the float to 9 billion, Sirius XM would have about 1.6 billion shares to trade and/or liquidate for debt. If they hold onto the the shares until the price increases (like around $1), you could potentially see a significant reduction in debt. Would that reduction in debt offset the dilution factor as far as PPS goes? Might not be as bad as some people think...

    Newman, I think that regardless of the number accuracy the thinking is sound.... It is what is being discussed in many different ways... The Question Now: "What will they do with the additional shares and how best can they leverage them?" We know that actual cash to Liberty in their protected dilution "state", as owners of the B-1 Preferred, will not take place until such time they decide to convert to common. In my opinion and many others, that is not happening anytime soon... So, what to do with the 1B additional authorized and the current balance authorized to get the best bang for the buck? I gave my opinion on that yesterday on this thread when explaining to Tyler how, in fact, their is a way to pay down debt while "Erasing" common shares from the "Float".... go back and check if your interested......

  4. #184
    Newman is offline
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    I did read that. By wiping out the 2014 "toxic" debt, you clear out a large number of shares loaned for shorting purposes.

    Lets say that Sirius has a blowout year, car sales recover, and sirius blows numbers off of their conference calls. Stock price hits $1.50 in early 2010 (13.5 billion dollar MC with 9 B. shares out) Those 1.6 billion shares would net them 2.4 billion in cash (or tradable for 2.4 billion in debt) That wipes out 2/3 of the debt obligations that Sirius has.

    Does anyone think that $1.50 is not impossible if the economy turns around and cars start selling again and Sirius is making some sirius cash? (I said not impossible, not that I thought it was likely).

  5. #185
    Newman is offline
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    Another thought: Going from 8 billion shares to 9 billion shares is dilution of 12.5%. What is 12.5% of the stock right now? Only about 3 cents per share.

  6. #186
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    That is his modus operandi(sic),which is ok if you are a poster,but not a blogger or writer or whatever they are calling themselves today..with me it's not a personal attack on him,just he and others complain about every negative bogus conspiracy laden story passed around and then they want to find where it came from and attack them..Well we know where these bogus positive slanting or negative bk scare stories are coming from..it is dangerous,
    disengenuous and plain wrong,and i'll battle it till it is fixed..

    You are exactly right on target. Why they cant see it is beyond me, it is at the most basic level of comomon sense. I would think only a person at the idiot level would not get. I feel the same way as you, I dont care if the article is from the WSJ, Barrons, Fool, Forbes, or even Charles and Tyler if they try to call an apple a orange I am all over them. The person or site should not change the way you bash a false story. Even cos1000, or killerkaul who I like and have known for a long time, knows if they were to put out some kind of bull crap I would call them on it.

  7. #187
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Here is an interesting post I found over on SatWaves:


    Numbers are a bit off as compared to Homer's, but the theory holds. It looks like this is using a share price of 50 cents per share. Basically it looks like by increasing the float to 9 billion, Sirius XM would have about 1.6 billion shares to trade and/or liquidate for debt. If they hold onto the the shares until the price increases (like around $1), you could potentially see a significant reduction in debt. Would that reduction in debt offset the dilution factor as far as PPS goes? Might not be as bad as some people think...

    This is something I have talked about and debated before. I voted for the dilution the last time. I said and argued for it because like I said then I had no problem with it if they were to pay off debt with it, as cos1000 knows I liked to say it is 6 of one or a half dozen of the other. Meaning high debt or high share count there was going to be one. They are basically the same when it comes to the drag on the stock.

    That was then this is now, I am not so favorable about this dilution. The reason is, I trusted them to use the last dilution to cut the debt not use it as a fee to just extend some of the debt (dont get me wrong I do put most of the blame on Charles Ergen). This time, I dont trust that is what they will do, and now there is a 40% cut right from the get go. That changes the picture when it comes to 6 of one or a half dozen of the other. Now it is more like 3.6 of one or a half dozen of the other. You all know that saying, "Fool me once shame on them, fool me twice shame on me".

  8. #188
    john is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    What did i do,now i have to get lawyer and restraining order too...

    But Relmor,it is not a big assumption ,they asked for 4 billion shares at the dec.emergency meeting,which means discussions were going on at least in Sept or Oct,possible don't you think..what saying is probably a combo of cash ,shares and extension of debt was going on..they had already done 113 mil of feb debt in jan..


    Very well put, believe me they had a good idea about the share amount they needed when they called for that vote. It is like I have said before to people when they say SIRI over paid for Stern, "What do you think that that 500 million figure just came out of thin air. No that is what was needed to get him to come to SIRI and not XMSR, or just stay at terrestrial, (Remember even if terrestrial was not willing to give him that much he most likely had other things that he got money from being on terrestrial. It would be the same if Rush came over they would put a price on his pod cast portion if that was to be stoped). Anyway that is what happen with the amount of shares also, They had a amount needed put in a few extra (100 or 300 million) in just incase and ran the number up the flag poll.
    Last edited by john; 04-24-2009 at 01:07 AM.

  9. #189
    bassmaster is offline
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    thanx for your responses to my last question.. relmor, i wasnt trying to put anyone on the hook when i asked for a valuation of the SP, just wanted to see what you guys thought...


    TAKE THIS FOR WHAT ITS WORTH:

    anyways, i was hanging out with some friends last night at the bar and one of them works as a secretary at an acura dealership. i picked her brains about cars sales the past few months. she told me between jan and including march car sales were abysmal. in april they skyrocketed, because of better financing, cheaper prices and lowered credit standards. so i personally am expecting horrible sub announcements from Q1CC, but am confident in Q2. now i understand this is 1 dealership out of tens of thousands and not a good sample size but i believe its not far off a general reflection of the nationwide auto market. ty...gl

    p.s. --- newman, i promised i would stop the bashing of brandon, and i hope you dont consider this one. brandon forever has been calling ISEG manipulation on almost an hour basis. today he wrote an article claiming its not(post february). he put up screen shots of trades, had investors go on a complaint campaign and now claims out of the blue, the trades are kosher...people are allowed to change their minds, but whats his motive behind this latest article? is he just trying to pump out articles everyday to increase web traffic to his site? this last article is pretty controversial and im not hating on him for it, he could very well be right this time, i dont know.

  10. #190
    TSavery is offline
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    Disappointment

    It is with great disappointment that I find myself having to still respond to this thread, but certain clarifications need to be made.

    A principal at another site who was once involved in this site has moved on. That is fine, but what is not was the fact that there was a dual existence for a period of time.

    SiriusBuzz at no time condoned this dual existence on both sites, nor do we condone the linkbacks, etc. that transpired. Especially considering that the person was acting as two different people. We were not fully aware of the dual existence until recently, and must address it for reasons of credibility.

    What transpired comes off as disingenuous and challenges the very fabric of trust that readers have in a site. I am not a perfect person, but I have made every effort to be above board with readers at all times. The actions that transpired recently were not actions that I myself would have taken.

    In fairness, I believe that the individual was not meaning to harm the site, but was in the throws of making a difficult decision for himself, and not wanting to "burn any bridges" as he contemplated what he was going to do.

    This site did not condone or support this dual existence. As soon as we confirmed it, we made this announcement so as to be above board with our readers.

    It is my hope that the actions of this individual, and the duplicity that occurred, will not be held against this site by readers.

    Thank you all for your readership and participation, and rest assured that we make all efforts to keep things at SiriusBuzz above board.
    Tyler Savery
    Satellite Standard Founder

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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