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  1. SiriusBuzz is offline
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    04-18-2009, 06:26 PM #11
    Agreed that we should be concerned about the cost of that growth (any company should) but with this much untapped market, any kind of slow down in growth is concerning to me. Its not like there are 200 million subscribers and the market is getting close to tapped out.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  2. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Location: San Antonio Posts: 2,884
    04-18-2009, 07:28 PM #12
    i think we may still be able to pull out a positive sub number, albeit a small one. also i dont think we will see continued losses in subs, if we start losing that sucks but it will turn around with the economy imo. Lets not kid ourselves though it will probably effect the sp if we get a net sub loss. the only way the sp will hold up or rise is if we can show a good fcf number for the quarter, if we do then it should overshadow the loss of subs. Lets hope and pray sirius pulls off another 12 round ko with a positive sub number though, then the sp should rocket, assuming we aren't already well over a dollar by then. once we get over a dollar it gets scary, with this float how high can it possibly go? Will see.
    Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 04-18-2009 at 07:33 PM.

  3. cos1000 is offline
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    04-18-2009, 08:22 PM #13
    I hear your concern on growth but, my position is that the slowdown is not reflective of the company's diminished product. It is a function of macroeconomics. I am not attempting to say subscriber growth is not a concern long term but, short term it is fairly benign with solid explanations, understood by most investors and the street for any neutral to slightly negative number. Saturation of the market is not even close (200M subs.. geez) . How long have they had OEM penetration over 40% in companies with exclusive contracts? 3 years maybe... The product, which is the content and currently its nationwide delivery system, are in tact, surpassing all of the competition right now...

    They have a competitive advantage that will not be quickly overtaken by any of the competition. This secures their business model for the next two years, allowing time for development of their own Internet and 3G products and partnerships. The sky is not falling and any positive numbers in subs, COH, or FCF will have the SP continue to move up....

    I myself am anticipating a pull back no matter what when the Q1 is announced because I have been conditioned to believe that the Hype is always squashed by the reality of the report.... bringing the SP down around 3 days after the report when the reality of the work at hand sets in.... There isn't an elevator that goes to 1.50 (bondholder price at merger on the lent shares), and there aren't any straight lines to success.... It will be a bumpy ride as always... As a consumer I look forward to the new products and as an investor I am sleeping much better at night.....

  4. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    04-19-2009, 02:35 AM #14
    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Agreed that we should be concerned about the cost of that growth (any company should) but with this much untapped market, any kind of slow down in growth is concerning to me. Its not like there are 200 million subscribers and the market is getting close to tapped out.
    I respectfully disagree. I think if Sirius announced a loss of 1 million subscribers, but announced POSITIVE EBITDA for the quarter, the stock would skyrocket.

    At this point it is all about the companies ability to generate cash. No body wants to see another Feb. 09, and we all know that the company is moments away from making its first true profit. If the company shows that they can turn a profit with AS MANY or even LESS subscribers, the stock price will take off. Sub #s do not mean nearly as much as profit right now. If they can loose subs and make a profit, it is a good thing (VERY temporarily, however)

  5. john is offline
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    04-19-2009, 02:12 PM #15
    I wrote this before on the other thread. This is why I dont think we are in for a big down turn:

    I believe The churn stays high at 1.8 to even 1.9 because the 1st quarter has almost always been bad for churn. The reason, as stated by SIRI (MEL) in their CC a year or 2 ago, They get a large number of subs that are given as Christmas gifts and are not truely activated till after the 1st of the year. That means they have alot of them that come up for renewal at the same time next year. As for net gains I dont think it is going to be possible with the OEMs not putting out enough to even cover the current churn rate and the fact the retail side is not getting anymore net new subs.

    The only way they are going to be able to keep churn in check at this point is to give subscriptions away (which lets face it is happening) free months are being given. Now while this whould drive down the churn rate it would also lower the ARPU. The fix to this lower ARPU is going to be that they just increased their prices on family plans and the internet connection. So one of 4 things happens:

    1) The FCF gos way up (when compared to quarter over quarter) because alot of subs prepaid to get their plans locked in at the old rate. ARPU still gos up but by just a little bit (still good considering it gos down most of the time).


    2) The ARPU gos way up because they are going to be collecting alot from the increased family plan and internet. They will also have a higher churn rate though.


    3) The ARPU gos up a little bit but they show a lower churn then expected. Due to the fact they gave many free months to keep them.


    4) There is a mixture of all 3 above.


    While I dont think we see a true profit this quarter, I still think it will not be all that bad even if they show a loss of subs due to the other metrics improving greatly. How well the PPS does after is anyones guess. I do think most will be pleased to see the extra revenue added to the coffers reguardless if they lose subs. Most seem to think the loss of subs to be standard at this point (considering the economy) for 1st quarter.


    With all that being said, I believe as I have said before of at least .5 (this target was given a month ago and the post was before we hit .5 already) by just before the CC/10-Q. After is anyones guess, I need to see what actually happened in the 1st quarter first.



    Ether way you cannot just discount all the extra money they are going to be raking in. Look by their own projections they have at least 22.5% family plans that means about 4.2 million people are ether going to be paying 2 dollars more per month or they are going to be paying ahead to lock the old price in. Then you are going to have those that are going to pay more because they want to keep their internet (most likely a lower number then the family plans). That is going to drive the ARPU way up if they are able to keep churn at a resonable rate naturally.



    Here is another example for you lets say half of the 2 million prepay and lets say 1 million of them have the original plan plus 2 family plans attached. That means 1 million subs are going to be paying at least 100 dollars extra which would bring in an extra 100 milion (I wont contribute all that to FCF because who knows what other cost they will have to off set that). That still means though they will have about an extra 100 milion to play around with. Now that leaves 2 million that are going to be paying 2 dollars more which works out to .20 cents added to ARPU. Now that kind of increase in ARPU is going to be huge when tied to the fact they just had another .20 cent increase last quarter. That would be the same as them adding 377,000 subscribers (without actually adding them and all the cost that come with adding them).
    Last edited by john; 04-19-2009 at 02:50 PM.

  6. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    Joined: Feb 2009 Location: Valley Forge ,PA Posts: 1,583
    04-22-2009, 03:14 PM #16
    John i agree,but i'm looking for 3 things only....


    EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA!!!!!!!!

    FCF FCF FCF!!!!!!


    GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE!!!!!!!!!

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