Joined: Oct 2008
Predictions for next Quarter ???
just wanted to know what you all predict for Q1 2009 ????
I personally am "hoping" :
No Loss or addition of subs. (stagnant)
honestly....if 2 out of 3 happen, I think stock will hit .50... what u guys think ?
Joined: Sep 2008
Location: The Mid-Atlantic
I think all 3 will occur and we will be at .60 by June!
Joined: May 2008
I believe The churn stays high at 1.8 to even 1.9 because the 1st quarter has almost always been bad for churn. The reason, as stated by SIRI (MEL) in their CC a year or 2 ago, They get a large number of subs that are given as Christmas gifts and are not activated till after the 1st of the year. That means they have alot of them that come up for renewal at the same time next year. As for net gains I dont think it is going to be possible with the OEMs not putting out enough to even cover the current churn rate and the fact the retail side is not getting anymore net new subs.
The only way they are going to be able to keep churn in check at this point is to give subscriptions away. Now while this whould drive down the churn rate it would also lower the ARPU. The fix to this lower ARPU is going to be that they just increased their prices on family plans and the internet connection. So one of 4 things happen:
1) The FCF gos way up (when compared to quarter over quarter) because alot of subs prepaid to get their plans locked in at the old rate. ARPU still gos up but by just a little bit (still good considering it gos down most of the time).
2) The ARPU gos way up because they are going to be collecting alot from the increased family plan and internet. They will also have a higher churn rate though.
3) The ARPU gos up a little bit but they show a lower churn then expected. Due to the fact they gave many free months to keep them.
4) There is a mixture of all 3 above.
While I dont think we see a profit this quarter, I still think it will not be all that bad even if they show a loss of subs due to the other metrics improving greatly. How well the PPS does after is anyones guess. I do think most will be pleased to see the extra revenue added to the coffers reguardless if they lose subs. Most seem to think the loss of subs to be standard at this point (considering the economy) for 1st quarter.
With all that being said, I believe as I have said before of at least .5 by just before the CC/10-Q. After is anyones guess, I need to see what actually happened in the 1st quarter first.