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  1. LT LT LT is offline
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    04-12-2009, 09:05 PM #41
    Question; At what point will the debt holders lose money but shorting the stock? A short position has unlimited loss potential so they have to have the stop somewhere.

  2. homer985 is offline
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    04-12-2009, 09:15 PM #42
    Quote Originally Posted by LT LT LT View Post
    Question; At what point will the debt holders lose money but shorting the stock? A short position has unlimited loss potential so they have to have the stop somewhere.
    Simple answer... never.

    The short position is closed out by the conversion of the convertible stock into equity -- where the note holder will use the newly delivered shares to close out the short position.

    Thus, it is a hedged position.



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  3. RMAN is offline
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    04-12-2009, 09:50 PM #43
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Thanks Cos,that makes sense,didn't know about it being 2 lots.but it's safe to assume that 30 mil. or so have come back in short since we went to .42 on St.Pats day..Actually if you look at it my guess is that 50-60 % of the share vol. the last 8 trading days are probably shorts going back and forth.
    The institutional % was 56% on St.Pats and dropped to 49% after and has been fluctuating between 49%-just over 50% now,back and forth the last 2 weeks.
    Where are you getting institutional data from?

    Nasdaq says 32%

    Thanks

  4. RMAN is offline
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    04-12-2009, 10:12 PM #44
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    cos, that's how I read it...

    All I will add is that the prospectus that was filed on 4/7, was just an amended prospectus - a second amended one at that - first going back to the amendment in October then going back to the original filing last July. I believe all they were amending was the information of who currently holds the Notes and has right to sell shares, for if/when they are exchanged into shares.

    Regardless I agree, it is impossible to know who owns what Notes and who is likely short the name... but what we do know is that the short interest now is mostly hedged positions - most of which came from this debt issue. And they do not need to cover and return the shares until the Notes mature and/or are repurchased by Sirius.

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    Sirius just filed a 1billion dollar securities shelf, could they be looking to retire the lent shares to help the SP and get a better debt rates?

  5. LT LT LT is offline
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    04-12-2009, 11:07 PM #45
    at some point though doesn't it make sense for the debt holders to end their short positions and take some profit. Any short is losing money everytime the stock goes up regardless of whether or not they have the shares to cover it.

  6. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    04-12-2009, 11:32 PM #46
    Quote Originally Posted by RMAN View Post
    Where are you getting institutional data from?

    Nasdaq says 32%

    Thanks
    It's institutional and mutual funds combined,which is institutional to me...
    any stock quote page will give it to you...

    Related Information: SIRI
    Company Overview: SIRI
    You might say radio programming from this company comes from a higher plane. SIRIUS XM Radio (formerly Sirius Satellite Radio) operates a satellite radio system serving more than 19 million subscribers ... View Full Description

    Ownership: Funds (19.14%) | Institutional (30.89%) | Other (1.61%)
    CEO and Director: Mel Karmazin | View All Officers


    Ownership Breakdown: SIRI
    as of 3:01 AM EDT Large Block Holder Type Number
    Institutions 335 Total Number of Shares Held 3.86 B % of Shares Owned by all Large Block Holders 100.00%
    Mutual Fund 322
    Other Major 21
    Total Number of Large Block Holders 678
    Top 10 Institutional Holders: SIRI
    Name Shares Estimated Value of Shares * Holdings Shares Outstanding Turnover Rating
    Jennison Associates LLC 169.46 M 20.33 M 0.05% 4.39% Low
    Putnam Investment Management, L.L.C. 129.42 M 15.53 M 0.03% 3.36% Low
    Apollo Investment Management, L.P. 91.86 M 11.02 M 3.99% 2.38% Low
    OppenheimerFunds, Inc. 85.67 M 10.28 M 0.02% 2.22% Low
    Vanguard Group, Inc. 85.53 M 10.26 M 0.00% 2.22% Low
    T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 82.74 M 9.93 M 0.01% 2.15% Low
    Barclays Global Investors, N.A. 69.97 M 8.40 M 0.00% 1.81% Low
    RiverSource Investments, LLC 66.8 M 8.02 M 0.02% 1.73% Low
    MFC Global Investment Management (US), LLC 56.11 M 6.73 M 0.08% 1.45% Low
    ClearBridge Advisors 33.62 M 4.03 M 0.01% 0.87% Low

    Total % of Shares Owned by:Top 10 Holders 22.59% Top 25 Holders 27.07% Top 50 Holders 29.66%


    * Value of shares is estimated based on the closing price of the month in which the shares were purchased.Top 10 Mutual Fund Holders: SIRI
    Name Shares Estimated Value of Shares * Holdings Shares Outstanding Turnover Rating
    Putnam Voyager Fund 110.95 M 13.31 M 0.58% 2.88% High
    Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 20.8 M 11.86 M 0.01% 0.54% Low
    Oppenheimer Global Fund 49.49 M 5.94 M 0.07% 1.28% Low
    Jennison 20/20 Focus Fund 45.16 M 5.42 M 0.52% 1.17% Medium
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund 40 M 4.80 M 0.05% 1.04% Low
    Legg Mason Partners Aggressive Growth Fund, Inc. 21.76 M 4.42 M 0.09% 0.56% Low
    Putnam VT Voyager Fund 29.19 M 3.50 M 0.50% 0.76% High
    Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund 28.39 M 3.41 M 0.03% 0.74% Low
    Prudential Series - Value Portfolio 20.34 M 2.44 M 0.28% 0.53% Medium
    Prudential Series - Equity Portfolio 20.19 M 2.42 M 0.11% 0.52% Medium

    Total % of Shares Owned by:Top 10 Holders 10.02% Top 25 Holders 14.60% Top 50 Holders 17.07%


    * Value of shares is estimated based on the closing price of the month in which the shares were purchased.Top 10 Other Holders: SIRI
    Name Shares Estimated Value of Shares * Holdings Shares Outstanding Turnover Rating
    Karmazin (Mel) 26.53 M 15.12 M — 0.69% Low
    Parsons (Gary M) 13.4 M 7.64 M — 0.35% Low
    Zients (Jeffrey D) 1.33 M 760,380.00 — 0.03% Low
    Susquehanna International Group, LLP 6.15 M 737,969.00 — 0.16% High
    Greenstein (Scott A) 3.76 M 602,231.00 — 0.10% Low
    Donnelly (Patrick L) 2.83 M 452,855.00 — 0.07% Low
    Frear (David J) 2.72 M 434,788.00 — 0.07% Low
    Meyer (James E) 2.08 M 333,307.00 — 0.05% Low
    BNP Paribas Arbitrage SA 1.05 M 126,226.00 — 0.03% High
    KBC Groep NV 526,106 63,133.00 — 0.01% Low

    Total % of Shares Owned by:Top 10 Holders 1.57% Top 25 Holders 1.61% Top 50 Holders 1.61%


    * Value of shares is estimated based on the closing price of the month in which the shares were purchased.
    Last edited by JohnnyIrishXM; 04-12-2009 at 11:47 PM.

  7. homer985 is offline
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    04-13-2009, 01:20 PM #47
    Quote Originally Posted by RMAN View Post
    Sirius just filed a 1billion dollar securities shelf, could they be looking to retire the lent shares to help the SP and get a better debt rates?
    Both Sirius and XM have almost always had a shelf offering (of varying amounts) on file with the SEC for the last 8 years... for at least as long as I have been following them. Shelf offerings are only good for 2 years - and if they go unused, need to be replaced.

    I would not see anything special by the recent filing of this -- as it is not out of character for this company.


    As far as "retiring the lent shares", this cannot be done. They cannot force the lent shares to be returned until the Bonds that are attached to these shares are repurchased or mature in 2014. Sure they could refinance them... eventually... however, that goes back to the current debt market which is still in horrible condition. It's going to be still some time before the debt market is in a better condition that Sirius may be able to refinance these notes... I would say at least a couple years before Sirius is in a position to really be able to refinance these.



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  8. homer985 is offline
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    04-13-2009, 01:23 PM #48
    Quote Originally Posted by LT LT LT View Post
    at some point though doesn't it make sense for the debt holders to end their short positions and take some profit. Any short is losing money everytime the stock goes up regardless of whether or not they have the shares to cover it.
    These are not "normal" short positions... these are hedge positions. Big difference.

    You don't take a hedged position to profit on the short end. So to answer your question, no... the debt holders that are hedged will (typically) not cover their position to take a profit on the short end. They will cover their short position with the conversion of their bonds to equity.

    The thing to remember, the hedged bond holder is not losing money on their position, even though they hold a short position.



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  9. relmor2003 is offline
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    04-14-2009, 04:04 PM #49
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    These are not "normal" short positions... these are hedge positions. Big difference.

    You don't take a hedged position to profit on the short end. So to answer your question, no... the debt holders that are hedged will (typically) not cover their position to take a profit on the short end. They will cover their short position with the conversion of their bonds to equity.

    The thing to remember, the hedged bond holder is not losing money on their position, even though they hold a short position.



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    So, Homer, would you say that the SI report is actually bullish sign, as the lend shares out to short, is under the current amount of short open at this time. So some of those shares are long, or simply not shorting right now. Is this correct?
    If my thinking is correct, the 200 million shares to short on the 2014 debt...
    190 million SI right now...
    So at least 10 million , if not more of those short shares are currently long, or covered. Due to the fluctuation of the SI, and its usually being under 200 million lately, wouldnt you assume Homer that some of those "hedged" shorts are indeed using them, in and out, or maybe even sometimes going long?
    Basically, not treating these shares as just a normal hedge. A normal bond hedge wouldnt care what the SP was. They would open the short and forget about it. Doenst seem to be whats happening with these shares. As cos1000 was saying, they can be lent out, given to a dealer, etc... Or simply used by them to cover, and short as they see fit, to make money on these shares as it goes up and down.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 04-14-2009 at 04:13 PM.

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