Originally Posted by
relmor2003
Your points are 100 percent future based. So lets focus on the future. You also make assumptions. So I will make assumptions.
Lets assume Pandora and Slacker and every other internet radio station has to pay royalties, and this enables them to no longer be a viable free service. You now have 3 choices if you are in this industry.
1. Go out of business.
2. Increase advertising on the site to compensate(never happen).
3. Charge for the service.
So if they are charging for the service, it wont be much, or why would you do it? Slacker isnt better than Sirius. Content, or anything else. The only thing it had on it it was either cheap or free. If its not free, you might as well get sat radio.
Then theres HD radio. If it takes sat radio as long to get going as this, it wont be a factor. As of right now, its going nowhere. Sirius will not be mandated to put HD radio in their radios. The FCC wording used is a clue here. They admitted that they were allowed to merge because they DID have competition, HD radio mentioned. Now.... If your the government, are you going to require Microsoft to make windows ask you if your sure you want this operating system, and wouldnt you like Mac instead? You dont ask your competitor to allow you to compete on their dime to boot. Crazy. Then theirs Iphone/Ipod music solution. Blackberry. Internet streaming. ONce again, coverage, content, and interruptions. Sorry, but a phone is still a phone, You have to use it. You cant listen to music and talk on the phone at the same time. Plus its so small, hard to use in a car. Who wants to risk their 300 dollar phone constantly with the challenge of providing music constantly, to systems that might need more juice. You going to being your Iphone into your living room and stream pandora through it, into your 100 watt speakers? Really? Whos doing that? No, Iphone is however an excellent music alternative generator, of which now SiriusXM is available.
Internet in cars? Naa, more of a visual medium. You need to see to change stations, etc... Hard to hold your laptop with a full car too. Not buying it. Sorry Im not too up too date on what the NEWEST cars support, but this is soooo untouched still, its immediate threat is not a worry. Medium term, no worries. Long term... Geez who knows, even IBM could be out of business in 5 years. How does any one know so sure whats going to happen in 5 years? But we can see 1 or 2 years away. And Homer seems to think their balance sheet is ready to shine. Dont need to add more subs, its all gravey.
Then you add deeper and deeper penetration rates, lower costs to add subs, never having to pay more for talent(old contracts will be much higher than the new ones for all their content, including Howard).