SIRI Intraday Thread: Wednesday April 8

[Paratrooper_Rick]

I do not doubt that Rick. According to all the LvL 2 talk in the other intraday threads, it appears if ISEG is collecting shares. One only collects so that they can sell later at a profit, especially when they an manipulate that profit.

I think you might see one last spike down, possibly below 0.30 and then it will rebound past resistance at 42 and that will then form the new base. No technical analysis in that guess, simply a guess.

That's what I keep thinking - that right now we're getting edgy because everyone's emotions got the better of them when we climbed out of BK land down between .05 and .13

Now that everyone has been successfully "scared" like a bunch of wandering sheep hearing the wolves howl... I think they'll do another gap down in an attempt to pick up all the panic selling cheap before they take it higher...

Nothing fundamentally has changed with the company. Not a damn thing from a week ago - or two weeks ago - or three for that matter. Everyone needs to suck in their gut and not be stupid. Same EBITDA guidance - same synergies - same news on Iphone App - Q1 is simply looming.... and they will take advantage of it by toying with our emotions.

I have the same plan I did last week and the week before... holding my core from down at .13 and selling 15% over core at .52 - I think once they do a gap down or shake the last weak hands - we do another ten cent jump in a day - start to level off between maybe .39 and .49 - (after an initial short-lived gap up to the low .50's) then we see the range narrow each day for another month until iphone app release or some other catalyst...

This is simply my opinion.... anyone else should use their own judgement... I'm simply putting it to record...

[Newman]

I now have buys in at 30 and 25, just in case. =-) Boy, do I hope those trigger in a freak premarket dip. I know it is not realistic, as a 30 cent stock price would be a 17% drop with no news... and to 25 would be a 33% drop. But a guy can dream cant he?

[Demian]

I know it is not realistic, as a 30 cent stock price would be a 17% drop with no news... and to 25 would be a 33% drop. But a guy can dream cant he?

Sounds like a nightmare for someone all in with no dry powder......

[Demian]

SIRI Pivot Table for Today - Wednesday, 4/8/09

R2 - R1 - Pivot - S1 - S2
0.37 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.31

[tim wallick]

I think it will drift slowly lower going into summer, and present a nice entry point (opportunity) even with the release of and app for the apple platform/iphone.

Charles mentioned/questioned the lack of digital integration in general for Sirius/xm.I'm thinking a large part of the delay is the under-laying copy rights issue along with legal questions/loopholes which can be used to deliver across multiple platform pathways. which Sirius/xm should have already began exploiting to the maximum possible (for the shareholders) along with their licensed content/music partners to help drive their sales. which are now challenging the currently established royalty rates within the legal system.and could be the big reason for little integration's action over the last couple of years.

the fcc merger requirement for opening up the device/platform for manufacturing should have allowed Sirius/xm to skirt many of the underlaying issues imho. and allowed them to exit some of side deals made with the labels do to certain device features and even the smaller normal fees/taxes related to all digital recording devices. which would also be shareholder/and cash friendly.imho

which then really begs a question be asked. whats the reason for the delay
I'm just wondering as sirius/xm have been completely quite on this subject. and i think this is one of the real issues which could drag sirius and others much lower.

I have said from the early days sirius/xm should have began activating some of the old units and deliver some type of limited always on promotional content on a national level which included advertisements with its basic goal of recovering only the cost burden of the promotion and spreading the word of Sirius/xm while building out some type of a real functional for profit national advertising platform for its partners and others. which would have competed with the old broadcasting platforms for listeners.

now the folks that are requesting the set aside channels of four percent based on filings with the fcc are asking for this very concept free, to reactivate all devices and that they be left always own going forward.

the sad part is it could happen.where Sirius is forced to compete with its own platform for listeners.

these types of issues coupled with lack of public action or comment have turned Sirius/xm into a traders game, one where i would only play longer term with free shares from my winning trades. as any good/bad news or rumor could swing this thing either direction in a heart beat.

[LMaze]

Tim: good post. do you have a link to any documents submitted to the FCC by these applicants?

I also agree that Sirius should continue to turn on the old radios in an effort to acquire renewed subscriptions especially as the economy rebounds from the current recession.

Stock should drift lower over the next three days if only from the lack of activity on the street due to the overlap of the two holidays. thats ok too and presents a buying opportunity for us.

I will be buying another fifty thousand shares or more this week.

I also can't stand the silence. In my opinion this company had an amazing fourth quarter in a horrible economic environment and will more than likely gain an additional hundred thousand subscribers in this first quarter which is also a stellar result and as the car business rebounds we will be in fine shape on the OEM side of the ledger. Management here needs an overhall simply because the marketing of this company is terrible, I just do not understand why? Perhaps Mel is so consumed with cutting costs that he forgot that sometimes you have to spend a little money to make some money.

Maybe Mell should look at why Howard's channels have been such a success which is due to the personalities that broadcast the content and perhaps with so much talent out there they could create some channels with regional personaltiies that could bring their following to Sirius, pay them a smaller salary and split the ad revenue and let these guys out to promote their stations and keep in mind that the goal would be to make the channel profitable.

Perhaps someone knows the answer to this but didn't Howard's contract call for him to create Three channels?

[imromo24]

good morning, i have been pressured to tell everyone my real name is not imromo24, with that being said, i have no dry powder and should just turn and look away...but...its better than the wwf when i was 11.

(no disrespect intended, i wish safety for anyone with identity issues)

[JohnnyIrishXM]

Tim: good post. do you have a link to any documents submitted to the FCC by these applicants?

I also agree that Sirius should continue to turn on the old radios in an effort to acquire renewed subscriptions especially as the economy rebounds from the current recession.

Stock should drift lower over the next three days if only from the lack of activity on the street due to the overlap of the two holidays. thats ok too and presents a buying opportunity for us.

I will be buying another fifty thousand shares or more this week.

I also can't stand the silence. In my opinion this company had an amazing fourth quarter in a horrible economic environment and will more than likely gain an additional hundred thousand subscribers in this first quarter which is also a stellar result and as the car business rebounds we will be in fine shape on the OEM side of the ledger. Management here needs an overhall simply because the marketing of this company is terrible, I just do not understand why? Perhaps Mel is so consumed with cutting costs that he forgot that sometimes you have to spend a little money to make some money.

Maybe Mell should look at why Howard's channels have been such a success which is due to the personalities that broadcast the content and perhaps with so much talent out there they could create some channels with regional personaltiies that could bring their following to Sirius, pay them a smaller salary and split the ad revenue and let these guys out to promote their stations and keep in mind that the goal would be to make the channel profitable.

Perhaps someone knows the answer to this but didn't Howard's contract call for him to create Three channels?

You have to be carefull here when it comes to turning radio's on for free ,but especially the internet feed for such a low price,siriusXM is a subscription based bussiness model that seperates it from terrestiral radio...you don't see any of the cable companies making their product available on line for discounted prices..as far as all the people who want software upgrades for i-phone,web pages and portable radios etc we are a Satrad content provider not a software developer or radio manufacturer,we need to contract that out for a fee to pay SiriusXM as the cable companies do...And the royalty factor for internet and other distribution channels is definitely a trickey quagmire to sort through,i'm sure Mel and Malone are taking their time to evaluate it to see if it is worth opening upthat expense nightmare..JMHO

[RickF]

I now have buys in at 30 and 25, just in case. =-) Boy, do I hope those trigger in a freak premarket dip. I know it is not realistic, as a 30 cent stock price would be a 17% drop with no news... and to 25 would be a 33% drop. But a guy can dream cant he?

Newman - I had actually gave up on the idea of a .30 buy. Do you think it may be possible - really? Perhaps I should put my order to buy back in at .30??? I would love to ave down a bit - presently at .40. Even better if I could grab a few at .35

[JohnnyIrishXM]

who said yesterday we were kissing .35 and f***ing .34,well today we are going to take it up the ars I'm afraid ,at .33 in pre-market so far...
This is good tho,shake out all the scardy cats who want to secure their profits so far,so they can buy back in high...