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Thread: SIRI Intraday Thread: Tuesday April 7

  1. #1
    Newman is offline
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    SIRI Intraday Thread: Tuesday April 7

    Let us make today's theme "Bash Motely Fool" .

    As much as I hate clicking over there, yesterday's dueling Fools featured Rick M. giving the bullish side of Sirius XM, while Tim B gave the bearish side. Relmor chimed in first.

    Quote Originally Posted by Relmore/Fredlee
    And I see your still ignorant then.

    The debt is priced in. Sorry to inform you. Why its only .35 cents. Dilution is priced in, when I factor their market cap, I already assume the Liberty deal, as does every real analyst on the planet. They are still projecting higher price targets. Now the debt. They only need to keep their current subs(yes I didnt stutter, you heard me right) and they are positive EBITA right there. Add more and its gravy. Add more cost savings from the merger, no more XM writedowns(you saw the last one last report), they received cash from MLB escrow account, signing talent WILL NEVER COST MORE THAN TODAY, and dwindlling advertising revenue from terrestrial radio, and the 30 million new possible subs instantly(iphone app, ipod), add deeper penetration rates in car installs, add the worst car sales in the modern era(only go up now), and you will see why that debt is only a hinderance to higher profit levels, not a problem to be paid off in installments as required. Not to mention an extremely nice debtor for once(a debtor who has more interest in it suceeding than failing), and you will know why you indeed write for the "fool", and talk to fools.
    My reply is right under his:
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman
    Anyone who is invested in Sirius who does not know about the dilution must be watching too much Cramer. They announced the dilution fact, and the stock trippled. The stock price is priced in for dilution already, just like it was priced for bankruptcy before.

    As far as EVERYTHING else you mentioned:

    You seem to ignore the fact that we are in one of the worst economic environments in years. The reason that Sirius had to borrow money at 15% interest was because NO ONE was lending money. The fact that they SUCCESSFULLY negotiated ANY loan to stave off bankruptcy should show how strong of a company they were and still are. Yes, there will be future refinancing necessary, but it will be done in a much friendlier economy.

    You mention tons of debt, but what you FAIL to mention is the fact that the company will be EBITDA positive for the full year 2009 according to their forecasts to the tune of "at least 300 million". You forget to mention that costs have been dropping nearly as fast as the Motley Fool's subscriber numbers, while revenues have increased significantly. You forget to mention that due to synergies with satellite CAPEX, they will be able to maintain half of the satellites as a single company.

    It is convienient that you leave out so much information that would hurt your case. Your entire argument is based on th future, yet you base all of your assumptions on todays environment.
    Newman
    http://www.SiriusBuzz.com

    After thinking about it a bit, I don't think we need to bash the Fool... I think we need to start SUPPORTING Rick M. If we all flood to the Fool and start posting on the negative articles, they will continue posting them because they know we will rag them on it. They don't care about content, they care about hits. Instead, we will all start PUMPING Rick M.'s articles. Maybe if they see that a ton of people are supporting the Bull, they will start posting more bullish comments?

    Discuss...

  2. #2
    Newman is offline
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  3. #3
    LMaze is offline
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    Cos: those were some nice words you said about your dad in the Monday thread ( directed at Beach Gambler) It's too bad your dad is gone now but I'm certain he is always in your thoughts.

    My dad is 84 and is still working but I have mixed emotions about him. He was never much of a dad to me. My mom worked two jobs and provided for the every day needs of our family growing up while my father kept his paycheck to himself and basically ignored the rest of us. He never took an interest in anything I did when I was growing up, we never went anywhere together and when we went on vacation he kept to himself and never appeared to be proud when I graduated college, received an MBA and a law degree. He thought my wife was too young and to headstrong and when we took our wedding money to start our first business it was "ill timed, ill advised and doomed to failure."

    Throughout my adult life I've come to accept him for what he is and I've made peace with myself for the way treated me growing up. My mother must have seen something good there, they have been married since 1954, and I've encouraged my two sons to spend some time with their grandfather. Both of my boys spend a significant amount of time with him and they truly love him, so I guess its all good and I can't imagine what life would be like if he was gone.

    Sorry that I got away from my thoughts on Sirius but your words hit me hard.

    Happy holiday to you and to everyone one else here, my "sirius" family

  4. #4
    Beach Gambler is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by LMaze View Post
    Cos: those were some nice words you said about your dad in the Monday thread ( directed at Beach Gambler) It's too bad your dad is gone now but I'm certain he is always in your thoughts.

    My dad is 84 and is still working but I have mixed emotions about him. He was never much of a dad to me. My mom worked two jobs and provided for the every day needs of our family growing up while my father kept his paycheck to himself and basically ignored the rest of us. He never took an interest in anything I did when I was growing up, we never went anywhere together and when we went on vacation he kept to himself and never appeared to be proud when I graduated college, received an MBA and a law degree. He thought my wife was too young and to headstrong and when we took our wedding money to start our first business it was "ill timed, ill advised and doomed to failure."

    Throughout my adult life I've come to accept him for what he is and I've made peace with myself for the way treated me growing up. My mother must have seen something good there, they have been married since 1954, and I've encouraged my two sons to spend some time with their grandfather. Both of my boys spend a significant amount of time with him and they truly love him, so I guess its all good and I can't imagine what life would be like if he was gone.

    Sorry that I got away from my thoughts on Sirius but your words hit me hard.

    Happy holiday to you and to everyone one else here, my "sirius" family
    LMaze,
    We are going to get busted for being off topic, having said that,
    It warmed MY heart to hear you talk about your father. Family is SO important. I did not intend to expose myself so much last night on the thread but your last comment using the term Sirius Family actually made me chuckle because that IS kind of what I see this site as: (a sirius family) while watching and posting. Have a great week, lets hope this short trading week goes well for siri. Have blessed a Sunday as well, since we can't discuss religion,
    Demian if you are reading I promise to move to the other thread now......lol

  5. #5
    pilotfish is offline
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    Good morning all...and good trading!
    Killer, please check out Ameritrade! 9.95 trades all day long penny to dollar , great tools, level 2, and if you have an iPhone or a smart phone, you can trade all day long and never need to see a computer! Also check out istockmanager on the web and see there videos and screen shots I promise you won't be disapointed!...btw I think rick posted a thread about them also! Haven't seen it but am sure it's full of info to help you make an educated decision.

  6. #6
    Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Not looking good for the open. How many pennies will they take it down?

  7. #7
    Lithium24 is offline
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    Ill be selling half my position before the first week in May to pay for some wedding related things. Getting married in June. Said part is I couldnt convince her to put money in Sirius. Im going to make sure in my vows that investing in siri is a requirement and when she says I do, she is agreeing to forfit all monies to my brokage account.

    So Im hoping for a .48 sell in the next 4 weeks. Everyday that goes by, it becomes less likely. Anyone see that happening in my timeframe? Otherwise Ill be llooking for a .39ish sell.

  8. #8
    bear is offline
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    Here's the same chart as yesterday morning, updated after yesterday's trading. Still in a pretty tight range. We'll see what happens today.

    I know they are meeting tomorrow on the Uptick Rule. Here's to hoping we are close to a resolution of this triangle and that the news Wednesday on the Uptick will send us over the wall at .40
    Attached Images Attached Images

  9. #9
    Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lithium24 View Post
    Ill be selling half my position before the first week in May to pay for some wedding related things. Getting married in June. Said part is I couldnt convince her to put money in Sirius. Im going to make sure in my vows that investing in siri is a requirement and when she says I do, she is agreeing to forfit all monies to my brokage account.

    So Im hoping for a .48 sell in the next 4 weeks. Everyday that goes by, it becomes less likely. Anyone see that happening in my timeframe? Otherwise Ill be llooking for a .39ish sell.
    Never invest with money you need that quickly. If I were you, I'd sell now, well maybe tomorrow as today may be brutal. (You should sell into strength and buy on down days)

    When Sirius put out that going concern statement, I sold. It wasn't worth the risk. I bought it back slightly higher, but it was a good decision. You should do the same.

  10. #10
    Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by bear View Post
    Here's the same chart as yesterday morning, updated after yesterday's trading. Still in a pretty tight range. We'll see what happens today.

    I know they are meeting tomorrow on the Uptick Rule. Here's to hoping we are close to a resolution of this triangle and that the news Wednesday on the Uptick will send us over the wall at .40
    hey bear, can you post the 6 month command center chart?

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